Anthony Edwards Questionable
Robert Williams Out
Scoot Henderson Out
Damian Lillard Out
The Timberwolves start their season out on the road in Portland. We’ll see how the young up-and-coming Blazers fare against a top-tier team like Minnesota. With plenty of talent on both sides of this one, it should be a solid battle in the Pacific Northwest!
For Minnesota, their lineup hasn’t changed much from last year, and why should it? They’ve made the Western Conference Finals back-to-back years now. This is clearly a good team. They managed to re-sign McDaniels, Randle, and Reid to keep the core intact. They did have to sacrifice Nickeil Alexander-Walker to make it work, but that happens. Still, this team is built to be a winner, with Anthony Edwards leading the way. We saw some impressive leaps forward for Edwards last year in shooting. He became not only a good three-point shooter but an elite one. Adding even more depth to this team. Overall, the growth of this team has been impressive on nearly every front. However, that doesn’t mean everything has been perfect. Aging affects both sides—while one player improves, another regresses. Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert are getting up in age, which limits their effectiveness. They still have some gas left in the tank, but each year it seems to drain a little more. It will be a balancing act of adding youth and hoping for improvement, while managing veteran decline. However, with a solid young bench including Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Joan Beringer, they’ve done an excellent job of backfilling for their veteran players. Overall, this team looks poised to be at the top of the Western Conference again this year. But it all begins tonight in Portland against a feisty, Trail Blazers team.
The Blazers made some fairly controversial moves over the off season. First of all, they traded their leading scorer, Anfernee Simons, for Jrue Holiday, a somewhat baffling move. Holiday does add a veteran defensive presence, but at his price tag, it was a somewhat shocking. They also picked up Damian Lillard, but he’s unlikely to play this season as he recovers from a torn Achilles. Moving off of Deandre Ayton as well, in favor of going even younger at center, they drafted Hansen Yang to fill out the backup center position. Overall, the team made an obvious move to commit to a strong defensive identity. With Holiday, Thybulle, Camara, Grant, Avdija, and Clingan, they have the pieces to do it. The problem seems to be their offensive potential. Losing Simons took away their one high-volume scorer. That places most of that load onto Shaedon Sharpe, who just hasn’t proven he can handle it yet. With Avdija as the secondary scorer, things look better, but this team will need to win defensively to have any shot at winning games this year. Overall, the pieces and the direction of this team look promising, but their ability to win is questionable. I want to believe that this team can show up early, but we'll see.
The matchup between these teams depends entirely on the health of Anthony Edwards. Currently dealing with some back issues, if he’s out tonight, this is a stay-away game. If he is playing, and looks about 80%, I think the Timberwolves will take it. There is so much defense on Portland, but with all the scoring options on Minnesota, I think they can find the holes. It won’t be easy, and I don’t expect a high-scoring game, but Minnesota is just the more talented team. So that’s why I’m going with the Minnesota moneyline, the under on the 221.5 points total, and the Timberwolves spread at -4.5.
Money line: MIN (-180) / POR (+150)
Total Points: 221.5
Spread: -4.5 MIN (-102) / +4.5 POR (-118)
Edwards' coming into this game on the injury report isn’t giving much confidence. He’s an elite scorer, especially with the attrition of his three-point shot last year, but facing Portland will be tough. With Camara likely on him to start, Portland can rotate Holiday, Thybulle, or Avdija to defend him. If he’s not 100% come game time, I doubt he’ll be able to exploit Portland’s defense much, making this line entirely dependent on his three-point shooting. The under looks like a strong play tonight.
This line seems very high for Clingan. He’s a strong rebounder and should get plenty of minutes, but 11 for the over is steep. He’ll be competing with Avdija, Camara, and Sharpe for rebounds in the starting lineup. All of those players are decent rebounders. The competition for defensive boards will cut into his numbers, and if he gets into foul trouble, there's no way he’ll hit this total. The under looks like the safer bet.
This line is a bit confusing for me. Gobert remains one of the top post-protecting centers in the league. Since Portland has limited shooters, they will need to attack downhill and drive to the rim. With Clingan having a limited offensive game, Avdija mainly working in transition, and Sharpe always looking to attack the rim, Gobert should have plenty of opportunities to affect shots. I don’t see him having much trouble with two blocks against Portland tonight.
Avdija is the x-factor for Portland this year. We saw him make a significant jump in scoring last season, with his three-point shot improving. However, it’s his ability to move in transition and score that makes him dangerous. With the Timberwolves having a strong defensive lineup, transition points will be crucial, which means we should see Avdija running the floor a lot tonight. Combine that with his ability to get to the line and knock down a couple of threes, and 20 points seems very achievable.