Bronny James Questionable
Jaxson Hayes Questionable
LeBron James Out
Moses Moody Out
Jonathan Kuminga Probable
Jimmy Butler Probable
De’Anthony Melton Out
The NBA is back, and we get to start it off with the Warriors heading to LA to face the Lakers.
The Lakers are entering this season pretty similar to last year, with a few notable differences. The most important is the absence of LeBron James. It looks like LeBron will be missing a good amount of time early this year due to some sciatica. Since his return date is unclear, this will likely be Luka's team for the foreseeable future. Besides losing LeBron, the Lakers also lost a key role player in Dorian Finney-Smith, who was a strong part of their defense. Losing him was a setback, but they made a huge upgrade at center with Deandre Ayton. After Portland bought out his contract over the summer, the former number one pick naturally landed in LA. With a major weakness in their post game this year, his presence should bring some much-needed stability down low. Along with Ayton, the Lakers also added Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia, who should both see playing time tonight. Overall, this team is quite similar to last year's squad, with Austin Reaves backing up Luka and Rui handling the other starting forward minutes. This core has plenty of high-end scoring talent.
The Warriors, on the other hand, have made a few more adjustments to their lineups. Nothing too major, but adding Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton should provide some much-needed depth to the team. Aside from those two, the main goal for the Warriors was mostly retaining talent, keeping the core of Butler, Green, and Curry together while holding onto players like Gary Payton II. This team looks solid, though. They’ve built a very high IQ squad with players who can fill multiple roles at once. The addition of Al Horford might be the biggest game changer. His ability to protect the paint and spread the floor on offense will be huge for the Warriors. Overall, there’s a lot to like about the Warriors on both sides of the court. With some of the best post defense in the league, thanks to Butler and Green, while Curry remains a lethal threat on offense, they should scare any team.
The matchup between these two should be good, but I think the Warriors will have the edge. Without LeBron, the Lakers are just missing that one extra piece. The offense should still be competitive, but I believe the Lakers are extremely porous on defense without LeBron. Offensively, the Lakers should stay close with the Warriors, but it’s that defensive advantage the Warriors have that matters most. So, that’s why I’m taking the Warriors moneyline, the over on the 225.5 points total, and the Warriors spread at -2.5.
Money line: GSW (-130) / LAL (+110)
Total Points: 225.5
Spread: -2.5 GSW (-105) / +2.5 LAL (-115)
Even with the number exceeding 30 points, this still seems like a good bet for the over. Without LeBron, this will be the first look at the full Luka-led Lakers. After a strong run in European basketball and entering the season in good shape, Luka could be unstoppable. Last year, he averaged 28 points per game for the Lakers, so 31 points should be achievable tonight.
As one of the newest additions to the team, Ayton has something to prove. The former number one pick has bounced around from Phoenix to Portland, and now to LA. Also on a contract year, Ayton should be motivated to excel this season. We already saw him prioritize rebounding in the preseason, and with LeBron out, he should see plenty of opportunity to grab boards on the defensive end. Averaging nearly 9 boards a game in the preseason while only playing about 20 minutes per game gives me a lot of confidence in this line tonight. The over looks like the right play.
Curry continues to be the offensive engine that drives this entire team. In preseason, he was lighting up teams, showing he hasn’t lost a step. With his ability to shoot over anyone, plus the weak Laker defense, Curry should see plenty of shot opportunities. Especially if he can attack the paint a bit and draw fouls, 27 points doesn’t seem out of reach at all.
Butler established a strong role as a secondary playmaker on the team last season after the The Warriors acquired him. His high IQ, solid isolation skills, and ability to operate in the post open up the entire floor. Last season with GS, he averaged nearly 6 assists per game. With more time to develop chemistry with the team and a few additional shooters around him, he should be able to create opportunities effectively tonight against an already questionable Lakers defense.