Portland begins their preseason on the road as they head to Golden State. This should give a good glimpse of what could develop into a real rivalry this year. With Portland on the rise and Golden State looking for one last run, it promises to be an interesting clash of youth versus veterans.
Robert Williams Out
Scoot Henderson Out
Damian Lillard Out
Seth Curry Questionable
De’Anthony Melton Out
It seems like the Warriors' roster only just came together at the last minute. With contract discussions lingering with Jonothan Kuminga, several key players were only recently signed by the Warriors. But now that the accounting is finished, we can finally focus on the basketball ahead.
The Warriors are one of the most interesting teams in the West this year. Their talent is still elite with Curry, Butler, and Green, but with all of those guys well into their thirties, it could be an uphill battle. The Warriors did manage to add some talent around them, adding Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, and Seth Curry, while retaining Gary Payton II and Kuminga. However, even with those additions, this roster still has its holes. The biggest of which is their post. Horford will help in that regard, but he’s 39, and expecting 82 games of full-time starter minutes just isn’t realistic. While they do have Quinten Post, who had moments last year, it’s going to likely be a lot of small ball again this year. Which isn’t a bad thing; Green and Butler can guard most bigs in the post, but they might struggle against teams with size.
Portland might be one of those teams that can deploy jumbo lineups to disrupt small-ball strategies. The roster is also heavily focused on defense. With Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan, and now Jrue Holiday, this group is tough. Scoring will likely be their main challenge. After trading away the team's leading scorer, Anfernee Simons, it’s unclear where most of the scoring will come from. Shaedon Sharpe will probably see the most shots, but Avdija will also have a significant offensive role. Overall, it's hard to predict what to expect from Portland. They’re full of interesting talent, but still unproven. They should make for a very interesting matchup against the Warriors.
This game will ultimately come down to three-point shooting. The Warriors have always relied on three-pointers, but this might be one of their better shooting rosters. Curry, Moody, Podziemski, Hield, and now Horford can all hit threes, which they’ll need. With Portland featuring two 7’2” centers and strong forwards in the front court, it’ll be tough to score inside. If Golden State can hit their threes, Portland won’t be able to keep pace offensively. However, I’m still skeptical of Golden State winning. Between Portland’s defense and the Warriors likely limiting their starters' minutes, I believe Portland will have the edge, especially against the Golden State bench. That’s why I’m betting on the Portland moneyline, the under on 219.5 points, and the +7.5 spread for Portland.
Money line: POR (+250) / GSW (-310)
Total Points: 219.5
Spread: +7.5 POR (-105) / -7.5 GSW (-115)
Camara had an excellent season last year, earning a spot on the Second-Team All-Defensive team. Along with his strong defensive play, Camara’s three-point shooting improved to 37% for the year. Even though he probably won’t see much more than 20 minutes tonight, he’s always ready for kickouts. Given that the Warriors had one of the best interior defenses last year, I expect plenty of open corner threes for Camara on the kickout. If he can knock down a couple of threes early, he’ll be looking great for 10 points tonight.
Avdija isn’t entering preseason cold; he spent most of the summer playing Euro basketball. With a higher level of game readiness, Avdija might have a quicker step than most of these guys coming off summer break. Considering Avdija also averaged 7 rebounds a game last year, 5 is right in his wheelhouse.
Podz played just over 18 minutes in their first preseason game, making 2 of 4 attempts from three. Considering Portland’s defense should be better than the Lakers’, we might see more three-point attempts as well. With Podz shooting 37% from three and averaging nearly 2 makes per game, this line looks promising with plus odds attached. As long as Podz is on the court for around 20 minutes tonight, he should be in a good position to hit a couple of threes.