We're back in OKC for Game 5 with the series is tied 2-2. This has been one of the most competitive Finals series we’ve ever seen. The Pacers nearly secured a 3-1 lead before suffering an epic fourth-quarter collapse. Now, back on the road, they’ll need to steal at least one more road game to win the title. The Thunder are once again in the driver’s seat as they attempt to take their first lead in the series. This is an absolute must-watch!
Jarace Walker Out
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This has been one of the most entertaining finals we’ve had. With all but one of these games being razor-close in the fourth quarter, it’s been one of the most evenly matched series. This comes as most fans thought OKC would steamroll the Pacers in four or five games. Now, either side is only two wins away from hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
This will be an uphill battle for the Pacers, though. Even though they’ve shown amazing effort, they’re in the unenviable position of needing to win one of two on the road. It’s not impossible; they already stole game one away, but that was by the narrowest margin. It looked like they had OKC in game four until the fourth quarter, where the pace of the game collapsed. The Pacers couldn’t find a basket as the Thunder attacked the paint and got to the line. After that, the game slipped away as Indiana desperately tried to keep it close. However, there were many things to appreciate about Indiana’s performance in the first three quarters.
The Pacers managed to maintain their scoring in the paint while limiting the Thunder to their worst shooting night from three in the playoffs. Fast break points were where things slipped away for Indiana, with OKC enjoying nearly a 2-to-1 advantage. On the rest of the scoreboard, the only significant edge the Pacers could muster over OKC was in their assist numbers; they recorded twice as many assists as OKC’s offense continues to shrink into an ISO-centric, one-on-one game. When you score 50 of your points on fast breaks, that tends to happen.
For OKC, they should be encouraged by their last game. They shot only 18% from three and couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn. Their overall field goal percentage was solid, but the real reason they won game four was their free throws. They missed only 4 out of 38 attempts. Their ability to get to the line remains their most reliable form of offense.
That’s basically going to determine these next three games as well. We’ve seen the Pacers continue to have an advantage when the free throw numbers total around 50 or below in a game. When attempts jump above 60, that’s where OKC can make up the difference in scoring and have won both those games. It’s been one of the most contentious parts of this entire series as well. With both teams playing extremely physically, the refs could call a foul on just about every play for either side. So we’ll have to see how tightly they’re calling this game, but I have a feeling that with it being back in OKC, we’ll see 60+ free throw attempts tonight.
In general, I think OKC has the advantage tonight. They’ve been playing better, generating more scoring from their other stars, and slowing down the Pacers’ offense. My one concern with them is fatigue. SGA has been averaging nearly 40 minutes a game as the lead offensive creator. He slowed down in game four, and if he’s not bringing his A game tonight, that leaves the door open for Indiana. I think he’ll be able to rise to the occasion, though. Both teams had an extra day of rest compared to game four, and he’s back at home. For the Pacers, they’re going to need a lights-out shooting night. The Thunder have been playing some amazing drop defense and crowding every passing lane. If Indiana can knock down their shots, pulling the OKC defense out and potentially forcing them to run their smaller lineup, they could pull off the upset. I’m definitely not counting Indiana out of this one, but I think OKC will take the game tonight, so I’m taking the OKC moneyline, the under on the 224.5 spread, and the Indiana +9.5 spread.
Betting Lines (DraftKings)
Money line: IND (+330) / OKC (-425)
Total Points: 224.5
Spread: +9.5 IND (-112) / -9.5 OKC (-108)
Chet just hasn’t been getting the workload he needs to hit these lines on offense, especially if he’s not getting to the line. We’ve seen his shot volume remain relatively low compared to where it’s been in the regular season. He has been excellent at running in space and attacking the basket off screens, but beyond that, the shots haven’t been falling. I don’t see things changing tonight either, as I expect SGA will have the ball in his hands all night running iso.
Haliburton has been solid in a few of these games on the boards. It really depends on the pace of the game. If it’s moving fast with a lot of action in transition, he should be able to grab 5 boards easily. It’s when the game goes to the free-throw line and the pace slows down that we’ve seen him struggle to hit the over. I’m still feeling good about the over tonight, considering the stakes of the game.
We have not seen the Thunder moving the ball effectively in this series. They have only had one game in the finals with an assist total over 20, compared to their regular season average of 24 per game. SGA has been fairly iso-dependent while the Pacers' defense has done an excellent job of forcing him into difficult passing situations. With the line set at 6.5, the under looks promising, as long as the Pacers can keep applying full court pressure on SGA.
Siakam hasn’t been the flashiest player in the playoffs, but he has been the backbone for Indiana. He consistently finds a way to keep scoring, even when the rest of the team experiences a slump. With the highest average shot volume on the team in the finals, he’s getting some excellent looks as well. I believe he’ll be able to surpass the 20-point mark again tonight, even on the road.