After an electric game three at home, the Pacers hold the lead going into game four. OKC is far from done, but the confidence of this young team does look shaken. We’ll see if they can get the series back to even before heading back to OKC for game five. However, with the Pacers staring down their first NBA title in team history, this might be one of the most challenging games OKC will ever play.
Jarace Walker Out
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Here we are, game four of the finals. Many, including myself, thought this could be the last game of the series, with OKC sweeping the Pacers. However, the Pacers have shown us nonbelievers that we were dead wrong. The resolve and intensity Indiana has played with feel straight out of a movie. This is one of the most compelling Cinderella stories we’ve seen in quite some time, now up 2-1 in the series with a chance to go 3-1 at home tonight.
For OKC, they need to shake off game three and keep playing their game. As a whole, the team looked a little rattled after getting pushed around in game three. The Pacers swarmed SGA, not allowing him a sliver of space. He just couldn’t build up any momentum to get to the rim. His superpower is his ability to get guys moving, then find space for a shot or a way to get to the line. He’s so effective at manufacturing high-quality shots, but the Pacers slowed that down, leaving him with 24 points. Holmgren and Williams both had solid games offensively, but it was a lot of iso on offense. We didn’t see enough ball movement from OKC that we’re used to. Their assist numbers have been in the toilet in both games they’ve lost so far. OKC averaged 24 assists a game in the regular season, and the only game they dominated in the finals so far was game two, where they had 25. They need to move the ball and find the open man. We saw far too many possessions of guys running straight into the Pacers' defense only to get blocked or toss the ball away. If OKC is able to loosen up and play with a little more flow, they should be able to knock off the Pacers tonight.
Indiana, on the other hand, has a lot going for it. We probably won’t see such a productive night from the bench again, but their depth has been impressive. The bench outscored OKC’s bench 49 to 18. Even though the Thunder’s starters dominated Indy for most of the game, they couldn’t maintain the lead when the bench players came in. SGA had to play 42 minutes in game three, and the fatigue of the series looks like it’s setting in. Indiana has easily blown by SGA on defense, as the MVP has bizarrely become a target now. Mathurin was a huge proponent of that strategy. The fresh-legged third-year guy used his size, strength, and speed to attack, which OKC could not prevent. If the Pacers can manage that level of pace while attacking in transition, they’ll be looking strong tonight.
Overall, I’m a bit bullish on the Pacers again tonight. That home court is going to be electric; they’ve put all the pressure on a young OKC team, and this game could put them one game away from a championship. OKC was the best team in the league for a reason, though, and could easily bounce back. However, I think fatigue is going to be the deciding factor tonight. SGA is averaging nearly 40 minutes a game in the finals. With the Pacers throwing everything they have at him defensively, I’m a little skeptical if he can provide the scoring OKC needs from him. The rest of the role players have dried up offensively, leaving just the three main stars, plus Dort. If OKC can’t find another source of offense or have SGA put up over 34 points, I think they’ll struggle. Especially if the Pacers keep running the floor like they have and take away OKC's fast break advantage. I think they’ll be able to take this one. So that’s why I’m going with the Indiana moneyline, under on the 227 points total, and the +6 Indy spread.
Money line: OKC (-218) / IND (+180)
Total Points: 227
Spread: -6 OKC (-110) / +6 IND (-110)
We saw this line hit in game three, and with the points total not budging, I’m inclined to chase this one again. We witnessed what this high-intensity Pacers defense can do to SGA. They managed to stay right on his hip without sending him to the line. SGA only shot 5 free throws. If the refs allow the same level of physicality in this game, I think SGA is going to struggle to get past his man on offense, and without the free throws to boost his scoring, he should fall short again.
We’ve seen OKC move away from Hartenstein in this series. Facing Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam, the Pacers can operate a full five-out offense. This effectively neutralizes whatever Hartenstein can offer OKC on defense as a rim protector. Offensively, the Pacers are quick and agile enough to intercept lobs aimed at him, and he tends to congest the lane for the rest of the team. I think we’ll continue to see Hartenstein play a reduced role in this game, keeping him well below 7 rebounds.
Dort has been that guy from beyond the arc. With most of his offense coming from catch-and-shoot threes, he’s seen plenty of attempts in this series. He was hitting on Wednesday, too, going 4 of 5 from three. With the line still set at 1.5, I’m feeling fairly confident he’ll knock down another two threes tonight.
I think we should ride the hot hand here. Mathurin emerged in game three to score 27 points off the bench in just 22 minutes. The Thunder had no answer for him in that game, as he consistently bullied his way to the rim. I doubt we’ll see him shoot lights out like he did, but if he can attack the rim, get to the line, and make a few jumpers, 11 points is well within reach.