After an intense game one victory by the Pacers, OKC struck back with force. They dominated game two with little effort, as the Pacers weren’t able to muster a miraculous comeback this time. However, things are now tied in the series as it heads to Indiana, we’ll see if the Pacers can gain a lead again!
Jarace Walker Out
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The Pacers have accomplished the unlikely as they return home with the series tied. Most people, myself included, thought this would be a four or five-game series with OKC dominating the Pacers. However, the Pacers have become the radioactive cockroaches of the NBA. They just can’t be eliminated. After the heroics of game one, even a 20-point lead heading into the fourth in game two didn’t feel secure, yet the Thunder managed to maintain the lead, resulting in a blowout. With home court advantage, where the Pacers have excelled, this could be a pivotal moment in the series.
For the Pacers, we need to see that intense, high-paced offense that has troubled defenses all postseason. They’ve been exceptional at moving in transition and uncovering the open shooter. Their three-point shooting is truly their superpower. The number of players who can get hot transforms the Pacers into a genuine five-out offense. When they’re hitting like they did in game one, it’s nearly impossible to pull away from them. However, the Thunder did a much better job of closing out on shooters in game two, and it showed in the Pacers' shooting numbers. They dropped a full 10% in their three-point shooting percentage, which isn’t going to win them any games. Additionally, they’ve allowed the Thunder to score over 40 transition points per game. The Pacers need to take better care of the ball and minimize live-ball turnovers while securing the defensive glass.
For OKC, they’ll need to maintain high defensive pressure on Haliburton. They’ve done a decent job of limiting him and forcing turnovers when he handles the ball. The most crucial thing they need to continue doing is limiting the Pacers' three-point attempts in transition. They were deadly when permitted to move the ball and find the open shooter. In game two, they did a far better job of limiting those opportunities and forcing Indiana into their half-court offense. My biggest concern for OKC is their offense. It continues to be the SGA show carrying much of the scoring load. If the Pacers can restrict him to even 25 points, or if he has an off night, we haven’t seen sufficient scoring from others around SGA, especially late in the game to keep pace with the Pacers.
Overall, this matchup will essentially come down to three-point shooting again. It seems these teams counter and match each other well enough that whoever shoots more efficiently will win. Especially considering the results of game two, statistically it was close, but with a slight shooting edge from three and the line, OKC blew out Indiana. However, I have a feeling the Pacers will take this one. The Pacers were merely a .500 team on the road this year, but at home, they went 27-14. It’s not that OKC was ineffective on the road; they were still strong, but I believe we’ll see Indiana playing with more freedom and aggression in this game. That’s why I’m going with the Indiana moneyline, the under on the 228 points total, and the Indiana spread at +5.5.
Money line: IND (+180) / OKC (-218)
Total Points: 228
Spread: +5.5 IND (-1120) / -5.5 OKC (-108)
Toppin hasn’t been the most consistent player throughout these playoffs, but this feels like a game where he could find some space. Coming off the bench against the Thunder at home presents an opportunity for Obi to thrive, especially if he can hit a couple of threes. I think we’ll see a good amount of Toppin, particularly if the Thunder go with two bigs in this game again.
Even though SGA has been killer this post-season, a 33.5 point line is a bit rich for my blood. He had 34 and 38 at home against the Pacers, but now on the road, I expect him to take a mild step back. If the refs give the Pacers a little more leeway on defense and allow them to play a more physical brand of basketball on SGA, we’ve seen that effect in points consistently. The under is feeling a little safer tonight.
Pascal has been consistent in this line during both of these finals games. He had 7 in game one and 10 in game two. Given how often OKC relies on their guards in offense, Pascal has found himself in the post or on the far side for most of their defensive possessions. This has provided him with a great opportunity to get in and fight for rebounds. He has been crucial to the Pacers' rebounding effort, so 8 rebounds with positive odds looks like a solid move.
Dort is such a hit-or-miss shooter from beyond the arc. He’s either going to hit 1 out of 7 or 5 out of 8; there is no in-between, it feels like. However, I think he’ll get a solid number of attempts on the road tonight, and if he’s hitting, 2 made threes look like a very achievable line. We’ll see if it’s an on or off night, but getting the over at 1.5 seems like a score despite the meh odds attached.