We’re finally in the NBA Finals, featuring one team we expected and a surprise champion from the East. This series promises to be exciting, showcasing two young upstart teams filled with explosive athletes. Even though OKC is the clear betting favorite, we’ve seen the Pacers punch well above their weight. With everything on the line, we’ll see who can clinch it and be crowned NBA Champions!
Jarace Walker Out
Tony Bradley Questionable
None
After a pair of dominating performances in the conference finals, the East and the West finally clash tonight. The OKC Thunder, the darlings of the West, are taking on the underdogs of the East, the Pacers. No one thought this would be the matchup we’d see in the finals, but personally, I’m excited to witness new blood back in the finals! OKC has been chasing this moment all year, having dominated the West in the regular season, and in the playoffs, they only stumbled against the Nuggets. The Pacers, on the other hand, had an unlikely path, taking out two much more favored teams in the East. They’ve shown exactly what amazing coaching and a deep roster filled with athletes can do.
For the Pacers, this is going to be an uphill battle. The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league at home. As one of the most physical teams in the league, anyone who’s walked into OKC has come out with bumps and bruises. They battle for every loose ball, making every trip up the court a challenge. With some of the best defensive depth in the league, they’ve truly earned their spot in the finals.
The Pacers are no joke either. They’re probably one of the only teams with a similar level of youth and depth. Their wing rotation is fierce, with Siakam leading as the veteran with the steady hand. This series will be all about offense versus defense. While OKC has plus defenders at almost every position, the Pacers possess the same strength on offense. We’ve seen them get out and run against everyone this year. As one of the most consistent and efficient offenses, OKC will need every last bit of scoring from this roster.
That’s my only concern with OKC in this series: the scoring. We’ve seen them rely on SGA throughout the series, as he’s led the team in scoring basically every game. He’s been a master at the mid-range shot and getting to the line, which has given him nearly a 30-point-per-game average in the postseason. However, he has been averaging nearly 10 free throw attempts a game, which could be a variable in this series, depending on how loose the officiating is. Given how fast and physical the Pacers play, I could see things getting more physical, potentially leading to fewer trips to the line. But still, it’s SGA; he’s going to get his buckets. No, the real concern is the rest of the team. We’ve seen the bright lights rattle these guys before, and if the Pacers can maintain a high level of scoring pressure on the Thunder, it could cause issues.
That’s the main advantage the Pacers should have in this matchup. We’ve witnessed some wild performances from this roster, but they’re terrific at getting the ball in the hoop. If they can move in transition effectively, attack the rim, and leverage their superior bench scoring, they could keep this game close at least. That’s still going to be a big ask against the Thunder.
Ultimately, I think the Thunder are going to walk away with this series handily. If they maintain the same level of defensive pressure, attack Haliburton on defense, and limit Pascal’s impact in the post, it’s going to be a steep hill to climb for Indiana. We’ve seen them overcome challenges before, but if the Pacers manage to upset the Thunder tonight, this might mark the end of one of the best Cinderella runs ever. However, tonight I’m still taking the OKC moneyline, the under on the 230 points total, and the -10 OKC spread.
Money line: IND (+390) / OKC (-440)
Total Points: 230
Spread: +10 IND (-115) / -10 OKC (-105)
Turner had his ups and downs in the Eastern Conference Finals, but in this series, he’ll be an interesting matchup. I have no idea how much we’ll see Hartenstein in this game, but if the Thunder choose to go smaller, that could open up the field for Turner. Given how much the Pacers love to get out in space, I think OKC will counter with Chet at the 5, which Turner can exploit on offense and pull out of the paint. The over feels like a solid move.
Haliburton was a beast at points in the playoffs, but he has also had some extremely quiet moments offensively. With the defense OKC is about to throw at him, he might struggle to find his shot in this series. The only way I see him hitting his line is if he gets some calls and goes to the line. We’ll see though; the refs have let OKC play physical all postseason, so we’ll see if that changes in the finals at all.
Pascal is the X-factor in this game. After winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP, he demonstrated just how important he can be to this team. I expect to see him on the court for basically every minute of the game they can afford to leave him out there. He’s an excellent matchup against OKC, possessing size, post skills, and the ability to isolate defenders. Even though he hasn’t been the primary rebounder on this team, I believe he’ll be in a position to snag a ton of boards with OKC having such a guard-dominant offense.
We haven’t seen peak J-Dub much in the postseason. He’s had moments, but offensively, he’s been a bit lackluster at times, especially when SGA is dominating the offense. He’s shooting just 31% from three in the postseason, with a significant uptick against Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals. Still, the Pacers have a lengthy, fast defender who should be able to hustle out to shooters and get a hand up. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Williams struggle, at least initially, against the Pacers' shooting tonight.