The NBA Draft is just around the corner. As soon as we finish the finals, we’ll be thrown right into draft discussions. However, it’s always best to get ahead and examine some narratives that can cloud the draft day conversation. So, we’re doing an early preview of some of the best value players and bets in this year's NBA Draft. With many of the lines not yet available, we’ll focus on projected draft positions along with potential draft-day sleepers for the first round.
With the Draft only a few weeks away, we’re starting to get a clearer picture of who might make their way into the top five. So far, three players seem like locks for top 5 picks: Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, and VJ Edgecombe. The remaining two spots are a bit trickier. It appears Ace Bailey and Tre Johnson will round out the top 5, but teams seem less certain about them than the first three. So let's break down the picks in order to find some value.
This is a no-brainer; there isn’t much chance that he doesn’t go here, and all the betting lines reflect it. It feels like there’s a 99% chance Flagg is playing in Dallas this fall. With betting lines already in the -20000+ range, this is probably a bet to avoid come draft day. There is no value here at all.
We saw a solid outing from Harper at Rutgers this season. As one of the top college recruits of his class and the son of former NBA player Ron Harper, Dylan looks like a lock for the second pick in the draft. The odds have begun to reflect that as well, with his odds to be drafted second hitting -5000. There isn’t a ton of value at that line, but there doesn’t seem to be any indication against him going second.
This is where the draft actually begins. The other two are basically locked in at this point, but a few names have surfaced for the third spot. Ace Bailey has been the favorite for this draft position for a while, but some disappointing measurements at the combine and general concerns about his game have raised red flags. The real twist in this situation is the owner of the third pick, Philadelphia. They’ve been rumored to move the pick to add a more game-ready player. That could drastically change the value of this pick, but with Ace still being a top prospect with immense potential, he’ll be hard to pass up at 3. With the current DraftKings odds sitting at +105 for Ace, he’s not a bad pick right now.
Alternatively, we’ve seen several other names floating around this draft position, mainly VJ Edgecombe, the two-way player out of Baylor. If a team trades up to three, I believe he’s the player most teams would target. Bailey is tempting, but the value of two-way big guards might be exactly what most teams are seeking. At +130 odds to be drafted third, it’s a challenging toss-up, but I still prefer Bailey slightly more for the pick.
Edgecombe has become the default choice for the fourth pick. With Charlotte needing some defensive help, I don’t see a player who fits better into the Hornets' lineup. However, this pick feels a bit shaky. The Hornets have made some, let's say, interesting moves in the past. While it seems unlikely they’ll trade it, with the team already at odds with their big man Mark Williams, Duke’s Khaman Maluach has been mentioned around the Hornets lately. The 7’2" center might be the replacement they’re searching for, especially after a failed trade involving Williams earlier this year. If you’re looking for some value, Maluach is currently sitting at +900 to go 4th. That could be one of my favorite dark horse draft picks, but if you prefer a safer bet, Edgecombe to go 4th is listed at -105, which isn’t terrible value.
This is where things start to break down in terms of consensus picks, and you can find some solid value. Currently, the best odds for the 5th pick are tied between Tre Johnson out of Texas and Kon Knueppel out of Duke. With Utah still deep in their rebuild, I could see them going either way, but Knueppel makes a bit more sense. He has had an excellent year alongside Flagg and Maluach. He doesn’t possess Johnson's star ceiling, but he looks like a can’t-miss role player. He’s effective all over the court, and at this point, Utah just needs positive players to build around. Another name that often comes up for this position is Jeremiah Fears, the point guard out of Oklahoma. He’s been rising in this draft, but is currently sitting with +600 odds to go 5th, I think Knueppel is the value pick at this position.
After the top 5, things get a bit tricky. We’ve already seen names rise and fall out of the lottery pick conversation. With the draft combine and now teams bringing players in for workouts, we’re figuring out who might end up in the top 14. So we’ll discuss some names we believe could be great value picks to land in the lottery.
Bryant could be one of the biggest risers in this draft if everything goes well for him. He had an excellent combine with nearly a 40” vertical leap and an 8’10 standing reach; he now looks like a lottery pick. At nearly 6’8", he’s been impressive even though he only played limited minutes at Arizona. With so many teams searching for large wings who can excel in both directions, Bryant is attracting genuine interest in the back of the lottery.
Demin was looking like a top lottery pick early in the college season. He was a scoring machine in his first few weeks at BYU. However, his shot then stopped hitting, and the flaws began to bubble to the surface. Sitting in the late teens on most mocks, he is beginning to get a little more buzz again in NBA draft circles. The 6’9 combo guard from Russia had some excellent measurements at the combine. With the ability to potential play four positions, teams in need of a flex player might be will to take him a little higher.
Flemings is coming out of Saint Joseph’s as a junior, but he’s on the younger side of this class. He may have been the most impressive player at the draft combine with some incredible agility and size. He measured in at 6’9.5 height with a 7’5 reach. Playing nearly 30 minutes a game all season, he shot over 50% from the field and nearly 40% from three. For a player who could potentially play PF and C, those shooting numbers, along with size, are extremely impressive. He’s a guy I think will likely jump into the backend of the lottery.
Coward might be one of the biggest risers of the entire draft. After being mocked in the second round for most of the season, the Senior out of Washington State has exploded in popularity recently. His combine was excellent, measuring in at 6’6 with a massive 7’2 wingspan. He was dominant at WSU, averaging 17 a game with excellent shooting. His size, scoring ability, and NBA readiness have shot him up in most of the mock drafts. He still might fall a little short of the lottery range, but he’s an excellent value a bet to make it as we get closer.
The backend of the draft can be one of the most challenging places to call, but there are couple names to look out for. We’ve seen some players who are on the bubble of the second round that could have some excellent odds of going in the top 30 which is where the real value is at.
González had some hype coming into the year, playing overseas for Real Madrid in Spain. Unfortunately for him, he wasn’t able to make the court much, averaging just 11 minutes a game. Even though he didn’t have a great showing, he could still sneak into the first round. The 6’6 wing has all the physical attributes to be a solid draft and stash guy. With the teams picking at the back of the draft this year really lacking youth, Gonzalez could be a prime target to find a diamond in the rough.
Broome was the SEC Player of the Year at Auburn this year, with the senior having an amazing season. As a big-bodied power forward, he used his size to create space and finish in the paint. However, his combine performance wasn’t particularly impressive. He’ll also be 23 by the time he steps onto an NBA court for the first time, making him one of the oldest rookies in the class. Still, he’s a proven player, and coming out of the toughest college conference in the country, Broome could be a Day 1 contributor. Teams like the Clippers or Suns may be interested in snagging him at the end of the first round to add some size and experience to their bench.
Another senior from the SEC, this time from Tennessee, Lanier was a force this year. He dominated all season, shooting a high volume and shooting well from the field. Lanier averaged three made three-pointers per game, hitting nearly 40%. He’s a proven scorer, and at 6’5” with a 6’9” wingspan, he has excellent size for an NBA shooting guard. His main issue is age; he’ll be 23 and a half on draft night, making him nearly 24 before he plays a single minute of NBA basketball. While a few teams may be interested in adding an experienced scorer on a cheap rookie contract, he’ll likely be right on the bubble of the first round.