We’re on our way back to New York for the first elimination game of the series. The Pacers have taken a commanding 3-1 lead, and tonight could be the last time these teams play this season. With OKC waiting in the West for the winner of this series, the Pacers will be doing everything they can to end things in MSG tonight. Do the Knicks have enough left in the tank to stop them? We'll see tonight
Aaron Nesmith Questionable
Karl-Anthony Towns Questionable
The Pacers have been terrific this series. After one of the most incredible comebacks of all time in game one, they’ve carried the momentum into the rest of the series. Now with the chance to end things tonight, they’ll have to do it on the road, as the Knicks have an opportunity to avoid elimination.
For the Knicks to win this game, they’ll need to emphasize a few things, none more than pace. The Pacers have been out running the Knicks throughout the entire series. They’ve kept the pace high, capitalized on New York’s mistakes, and scored more efficiently. In the only game the Knicks won, game three, they managed to make things a bit uglier. They slowed down the pace, got to the foul line, and kept the score down. The Knicks won’t win a sprint to 120 points; they simply don’t have the offensive depth that the Pacers do to play that style of offense, but they can win with quality. Between Towns and Brunson, they’ve effectively carried the Knicks’ offense. When those two penetrate the paint, they excel at converting or getting to the line. This completely negates the transition advantage that the Pacers have. If they can maintain this approach and win the points in the paint battle, they should be able to compete with Indy again.
For the Pacers, the goals are clear: continue to attack Brunson on defense and run the floor. The Pacers have won the fast-break points battle in every game by at least double digits. With strong, fast athletes up and down the roster, it’s easy to find someone running the floor on every change of possession. If they can maintain that pace, they’ll be in great shape. Additionally, Carlisle has done an excellent job scheming against Brunson. There isn’t much the Knicks can do about him on offense, but defensively, they have attacked him at every opportunity. It’s gotten to the point where some minutes without Brunson have proven more effective for the Knicks, despite losing his scoring presence. We’ll see if the Knicks mix it up a little more to try to avoid the Pacers targeting Brunson, but I doubt they will.
If this series has taught us anything about these two, though, it’s that the Pacers are the superior offensive team. Time and time again, they have shown how devastating their depth can be. Even with game one being somewhat of a fluky win for the Pacers, they’ve demonstrated in the last three games that they absolutely deserve to be where they are now.
I think we’ll see the Pacers end things tonight, especially if Towns is in any way compromised coming into this game. The Knicks simply don’t have the offensive push to keep up. Unless they get a solid scoring night out of OG or Bridges tonight, I don’t see it happening for them. That’s why I’m going with the Pacers' moneyline, over on the 223.5 points total, and the Indiana spread.
Money line: IND (+145) / NYK (-175)
Total Points: 223.5
Spread: +4 IND (-110) / -4 NYK (-110)
It’s all about the offensive boards for Robinson. With their two-big lineup, Indy hasn’t been able to match up well against Robinson. With him sitting in the dunker spot during most offensive possessions or setting a pick, he has a clear lane to attack the offensive glass. Back at home, with Towns questionable, I like Robinson’s chances of hitting this line again!
Siakam remains the steady force on offense for Indy. His ability to stretch the floor and dominate in the post makes it difficult for the Knicks to defend, particularly with Towns as the sole big man on the court. Given that Towns may not be at full strength in tonight’s game, betting on another strong performance from Siakam seems like the right move. With 30 points in game 4, he is more than capable of scoring 21 tonight.
There are two ways this game could go for Mathurin: he’s either going to light it up on the bench at the start or sit out for most of the game. He has been the sparkplug scorer off the bench, adding a change of tempo, but sometimes the Pacers don’t need that shift. I’d still prefer to take the over on this line because of how explosive his scoring can be. He could score 8 points in 3 minutes on the court, or Carlisle might choose to stick with the other guys. This is definitely a toss-up line.
It feels like everything has been going Haliburton’s way this series; every little thing he’s done seems to work out. We’ve seen that in his passing too. The Knicks have not been effective at pressuring passing lanes, and because of that, Haliburton has exploited them for easy passes. The number of times the Pacers made the backdoor play work, allowing Haliburton to make easy passes for dunks, was alarming for the Knicks. Unless the Knicks tighten up their defense, the over on 9.5 looks solid for Haliburton.