We’re on to game four after a wild comeback win by the Knicks. The series is now 2-1, with Indiana still leading. With the Pacers on home court tonight, it’s going to be challenging for the Knicks to pick up back-to-back wins on the road. As the series continues to tighten, we’ll see if the Pacers can turn game five into an elimination game or if the Knicks can tie this up!
Aaron Nesmith Questionable
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This series seemed almost certain to begin as a 3-0 domination by the Pacers, but the Knicks had other plans. After getting overwhelmed in the first half, the Knicks found themselves trailing by 20 points late in the second quarter. However, after halftime, they came back transformed. The shots began to fall, the offense became a bit more patient, and they managed to slow down the Pacers. They steadily chipped away at the Pacer lead until the 4th quarter when they finally regained the lead. Securing the game late with some trips to the free throw line, they finished the night with a win, and hope returned for Knicks fans.
For the Pacers, however, this game highlights an issue they have been facing all season: consistency, primarily from Haliburton. As a team, the Pacers are actually the most consistent in the league, shooting 50% from the field and 40% from three on most nights. However, problems arise concerning who the leader on offense is. The team has plenty of excellent offensive role players, but Haliburton’s role as the primary offensive option can hinder the team. He has been outstanding most nights, particularly in playmaking, but moments when his shooting falters can make it difficult for the Pacers to find the next man up. They typically do, like when they turned to Nesmith in game one when he couldn’t miss in the 4th quarter. However, in game three, the Haliburton issue reared its head again. When the Knicks made their push in the 4th, Haliburton managed only two shots and a pair of free throws in garbage time. He did connect with a few players like Toppin and Siakam for some dunks, but this team needs Haliburton to take charge offensively. They need his scoring ability during challenging stretches when it seems like the role players aren’t contributing. Overall, though, this team remains extremely difficult to compete against. Their ability to go deep off the bench and maintain impressive downhill scoring pressure is something the Knicks have struggled with. Their defense has also been better than expected throughout.
The Knicks, on the other hand, have struggled to find that extra push to get over the hump. Losing game one was forgivable; it took an insane chain of events for the Pacers to even force that game into overtime. The loss in game two raised concerns for this team. They simply lacked any kind of scoring depth. This team relies on Brunson and Towns every night. So far, Brunson has managed to carry the load, but expecting him to score 36 points a game just isn’t realistic. The Knicks’ only real advantage on offense against the Pacers has been their size. They even went jumbo early on against the Pacers, starting both Towns and Robinson, which helped significantly on both ends. Size is how the Knicks will have to operate going forward. The advantage it provides in protecting the paint and on the offensive boards has been critical in keeping them afloat. I expect to see a lot more two-big lineups moving forward in this series.
Tonight should be an intriguing. We saw the Pacers falter in game three in what could have been the nail in the coffin game for New York. However, it’s hard to overlook the fact that the Pacers were up by 20 at one point in that game, holding a 2-0 lead in the series. I think we’ll see the Pacers come out strong again tonight. They should be able to use their speed, and if their shots are falling, they could easily walk away with a win. The situation is a bit more challenging for the Knicks. It seems they’ll need to execute perfectly again, but if they can slow down the pace like they did in game three, they could keep it competitive. I’m still leaning toward the Pacers winning this one, so I’m taking the Pacers moneyline, the over on the 220.5 points total, and the Pacers spread!
Money line: NYK (+114) / IND (-135)
Total Points: 220.5
Spread: +2.5 NYK (-112) / -2.5 IND (-108)
Towns has been one of the most consistent players on the court for New York in terms of scoring. He has managed to put up at least 20 points in every game this series, and with the line set at only 21.5, the over looks very enticing. As long as he can avoid foul trouble, Towns should see enough playing time and touches to score at least 22 in another big game in Indiana.
Even though Haliburton has made some of the most iconic shots of the playoffs this year, it hasn’t meant he’s been lighting up the scoreboard. He continues to struggle with his scoring consistency and has already fallen short of this line twice in this series. The under is looking like the safer bet tonight.
As the offensive leader of the Knicks, Brunson has plenty of time with the ball in his hands. Although he’s typically solid as a playmaker and steady with his dribble, he has been prone to turnovers and has averaged at least 3 per game in this series. The Pacers have effectively attacked him as well, and their wings have been particularly adept at forcing turnovers. The over looks very appealing tonight, even with the odds being a bit lower.
OG has been fantastic on defense throughout this entire series. The offense has wavered a bit, but he’s managing to collect a solid number of defensive stats. He’s already surpassed this line twice in the series, and his defensive role against Indiana has given him a lot of freedom to make plays on the ball. So, if he can continue to play this free safety role on defense, he should easily be able to snag at least a steal and a few blocks!