Game one wasn't as close as we hoped, but it's something we sometimes see from the Wolves. What’s really exciting is that we haven’t seen those off games carry over before. So, it’s safe to expect the Wolves to bounce back! Of course, this game is still on OKC’s home turf, giving them the energy of game one and support from the crowd. We'll see if OKC can grab a 2-0 lead, or if the Wolves will snag a win in game two!
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The Thunder easily handled the Wolves in game one, establishing a commanding lead in the second half that Minnesota could not answer. It was mostly Minnesota shooting themselves in the foot in the second half, though. They couldn’t buy a basket, and the only player with a chance to score was Randle. He was the standout for the Wolves, scoring 28 points on solid shooting splits. Edwards, on the other hand, struggled against the OKC defense, finishing with just 18. For the Wolves to have a chance in this matchup, they need to find better scoring opportunities.
We need to see more from the Wolves' backcourt. Collectively, DiVincenzo, Conley, Alexander-Walker, and Edwards shot a combined 13-46 from the field. They need someone to step up and make some shots. The whole team shot just 34.9% from the field, which won’t win you a game. They have to find better shots and avoid settling for too many jumpers. Nearly two-thirds of their shots came from three; if the Wolves aren't willing to attack the paint and challenge the OKC interior defense, this series isn’t going to last long.
We also didn’t see them switch to a zone defense in game one. There was only one possession where the Wolves used a zone defense, which is interesting given Denver's success with it. Maybe they are just saving it for later in the series, but tonight might be as long as they can last before trying it out. Overall, fouling was the main issue in this game. They lost key starters to the bench due to early fouls. Even with SGA receiving some questionable calls, they need to either play above that or make those fouls count. If they can play at a physical level that limits SGA and forces the rest of OKC to step up, they may have a chance tonight.
For OKC, they just need to keep going through SGA. He forced loads of fouls on key players and was able to get to the line at will. If he receives the same type of calls as in game one, I expect them to essentially repeat their game one performance. When you dominate a game by nearly 20 points, there isn’t much you need to change in the following games.
Ultimately, this game will come down to how much physicality the refs allow. If they’re calling it tight, I doubt the Wolves will win this game without shooting exceptionally well. If the whistle stays in the pocket and they let the players go at it, Minnesota will be more than willing to bump and grind the entire game. However, I think we’ll see more of the same tonight. That’s why I’m going with OKC on the moneyline, the Under on the 216.5 total points, and the -7.5 OKC spread.
Money line: MIN (+235) / OKC (-290)
Total Points: 216.5
Spread: +7.5 MIN (-108) / -7.5 OKC (-112)
Even though McDaniels has been solid this playoff series, this is not the matchup in which he’s going to score. This is mainly because he’s the primary defender on SGA, which put him in foul trouble quickly in game one, ultimately causing him to foul out. That lack of availability has already impacted his scoring, limiting him to just 7 points in game one. I don’t expect much change tonight with the Wolves playing in OKC again, so the under looks very appealing.
Randle has been incredible in the playoffs. He’s a matchup nightmare everywhere he goes and posed a significant challenge against OKC. While the rest of Minnesota struggled to score in Game One, Randle did everything he could to contribute points. His ability to create opportunities both inside and outside kept the OKC defense on their toes, and I believe we’ll see the same performance tonight!
Even though SGA had a killer game in game one, he still didn’t manage to hit the over on this line. He was on the court for 38 minutes and had a fairly generous whistle behind him. Still, he shot 10-27 from the field and struggled to get points on the board from anywhere but the line. He had some clutch and-ones, but if he isn’t able to get to the line as much tonight, this line looks fairly safe.
We only saw Hartenstein for 20 minutes in game one, where he ended up grabbing just 5 boards. However, Gobert did have some early foul trouble, which forced the Wolves to bring in Naz Reid, who is not a great matchup for Hartenstein. If Gobert finds more time on the court in game two, I think OKC will counter with Hartenstein, which should increase his rebounding total.