Oh, it’s been a while since we’ve seen the New York Knicks and the Eastern Conference Finals in the same sentence. However, they did it; they broke the streak and even have home-court advantage. The Pacers are no pushovers either; they’re back in the Eastern Finals for a reason, having slashed through the East. With the stakes cranked up, we’ll see who can hold their ground tonight in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals!
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Game one is finally here, and both teams have pulled off some thrilling upsets against higher-ranked opponents! This matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals might not be what anyone expected, but that’s the thrill of the NBA, right? We're excited to see the Pacers go head-to-head with the Knicks. Both teams have shown such impressive performance throughout the postseason, and the key factor that stands out is their overall health. Fortunately, the Knicks and Pacers have their rosters almost at full strength. This sets the stage for a fantastic game one matchup!
Over the regular season, these teams matched up fairly well, with the Knicks winning the series 2-1. However, the last time they played was back in February, which feels like ages ago in basketball years. Both teams have improved and are arguably at peak form right now.
The Knicks are the favorites tonight, and with home court advantage, MSG is sure to be a madhouse. This is the most significant basketball game they’ve had in nearly three decades. This should give the Knicks a decent amount of swagger coming into this matchup, but the Pacers can’t be underestimated. Indiana is a fierce team; they’re physical and relentless when they’re running. This team is stacked with world-class athletes and has some of the best depth in the league. That’s one area where the Knicks fall short; they’ve essentially been playing a seven-man lineup with Robinson and McBride as the primary players off the bench.
Depth or not, the Knicks are still a formidable team for the Pacers. Their length at the wings could be a challenge for guys like Nembhard and Nesmith, who have been invaluable to the Pacers' offense. My biggest concern coming into this game for the Pacers is Haliburton. We saw him have an epic night in the last game against the Cavs, but facing Hart, OG, and Bridges will be a different story. We’ve seen him struggle against big, strong defenders, and that’s exactly the type of defenders the Knicks have. In the regular season, Haliburton scored 35 against the Knicks in one game and had 0 in another. His scoring ability will be the x-factor.
For the Knicks, they’ll need to find some extra offense beyond Brunson and Towns. Those two have been rock solid, but with the Pacers' ability to score from all over the floor, it’s likely to become a high-scoring game. If OG or Bridges can hit their jumpers tonight, the Knicks will be in business. Ultimately, this game will come down to the Knicks' defense. We’ve seen the Pacers as one of the most efficient shooting teams in the league all year, which is where the Knicks can find their advantage. They’ll need to slow the pace and create opportunities for Brunson to get to the line. If they can do that and keep the Pacers from finding a rhythm, we’ve seen their offense implode. If this game turns into a rock fight, I don’t think the Knicks have been consistent enough scoring to keep up.
I’m still going with the Knicks tonight, though. I expect them to pressure Haliburton all night and try to keep him off-balance. If they can disrupt his scoring, the Pacers will struggle to keep up unless the wings hit their threes again. Overall, it’s going to be a close game full of lots of scoring. So I’m betting on the Knicks moneyline, over on the 222.5 points total, and the Indiana +4.5 spread.
Money line: IND (+150) / NYK (-180)
Total Points: 222.5
Spread: +4.5 IND (-110) / -4.5 NYK (-110)
Siakam has been the steady hand for the Pacers in the last two series. He’s been solid on both ends of the court, and his offense just keeps coming. He hasn’t had too many nights where he’s exploded, but 19 points is well within his range tonight. Especially with Bridges or Towns likely guarding him, he has the post moves to create some clean looks and find easy points at the rim. He’s shot nearly 55% from the field and 44% from three in the playoffs, so I trust his scoring again tonight!
On the other hand, Haliburton hasn’t been a model of consistency in the postseason. We’ve seen some big games from him, but he’s very matchup dependent and relies heavily on the three ball. Considering he’ll likely have Hart, OG, and Bridges on him nearly the entire game, I think he’ll be a non-factor in scoring tonight.
Even though Towns was a beast on the boards throughout the second round, the Pacers have more available size than the Celtics did. Now he’ll be facing off against Siakam, Turner, and a host of athletic wings for boards. I think we’ll see him sharing rebounding responsibilities a bit more with Hart and Robinson as well, especially if Towns picks up some of his classic early fouls. The under feels a tad bit safer.
Brunson has been the backbone of the Knicks' offense, and I expect him to deliver the same performance tonight. He’s been fairly solid from three-point range, but has taken a small step back compared to the regular season. He’s still made three or more threes in seven of the twelve postseason games so far. Jumping on the over feels a bit more likely since Brunson will need to space the floor a bit more against a quick Pacers squad.