It’s now or never: Game seven to go to the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets played a dominant game six, but now back on the road to close out the series, this could be one of the most challenging games of the entire playoffs. This will be the true test for both teams. If you could only watch one playoff game all year, this is the one to tune in for!
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Aaron Gordon Questionable
Hunter Tyson Out
We’re the game everyone was hoping for. Two of the most talented and toughest teams are lining up across from each other one last time. We’ve seen heroics on both sides, but now, it’s time for these teams to shine.
The Nuggets have been impressive this postseason, far outperforming my expectations for this team. Obviously, Jokic has been the main story, but wow, the rest of the Nuggets have stepped up, none more than Aaron Gordon. Unfortunately, we might not get the prime Gordon who has been so important to Denver. Suffering a leg injury in the waning minutes of game six, we have no idea how capable he’ll be entering this game. That will be the key factor in this match-up, and if he’s right, this could be one of the most significant NBA moments of his career. He’s been electric on both ends of the court, playing smothering defense while hitting some of the most clutch shots of the entire playoffs. So hopefully, he can suit up and provide Denver at least one more game of excellence.
Beyond the personnel on Denver, their defensive strategy has jumped to the next level. They’ve turned this series with a suffocating zone defense that has completely disrupted the OKC offense. We saw them rely heavily on this strategy in game six when they managed to pull away from OKC late in the game to secure victory. Obviously, we’ll see some adjustments to the OKC offense, but unless one of their other stars can step up offensively tonight, that zone will be a tough nut to crack so late in the series.
For OKC to thrive in this game, they will need either Williams or Holmgren to have a standout night. Even if some of the other role players step up too, Denver has been too dominant on both ends of the court for either of those players to not produce something great. This might be the only game of the season where OKC’s depth isn’t going to be a key factor. I expect them to lean heavily on their stars to match up against Denver.
The OKC defense is where they can secure a victory in this game. They’ve done a fantastic job guarding Jokic all series, despite some breakout moments from him. They’ll need Hartenstein and Chet to smother him whenever he touches the ball and shift it out of his hands. I expect to see Denver running with Jokic on the floor nearly the entire game, and battling against him all game won’t be easy. With so much physicality, fatigue will play a massive role in this game. This is where Denver has the advantage; this group has experience in the playoffs, and OKC is now venturing into unfamiliar waters. However, this isn’t the same team that got knocked out in the second round last year, and as the younger group, I expect them to muster as much energy as possible.
This game will come down to two factors: three-point shooting and trips to the free-throw line. Throughout the series, Denver has maintained a lead at the line, which isn’t surprising given their physical style of play on defense. They foul Jokic nearly every time he touches the ball below the arc, and as a result, he’s faced punishment from OKC at the line. Tonight will be no different, but OKC needs to narrow that gap. They will need to push against this tired Denver defense and find effective offense at the line. Settling for threes won’t be sufficient if Denver can match their points at the line. Additionally, three-point shots will be crucial. They need to be selective and find open looks; throwing up threes to save a possession like in game six won’t work for OKC, especially if the zone defense is disrupting their rotations. For Denver, they need to force the issue with Jokic by getting him the ball in the paint. He’s been so effective at generating high-quality looks at the line throughout the series. If they can keep that momentum and get a few threes to fall from Murray, Braun, or Porter, they’ll be in a good position.
This is an extremely challenging game to call, but I have to go with OKC. They possess the talent to get it done and have home-court advantage. Especially with Gordon going down in the last game, I think that will create a significant hole in the Denver rotation that OKC can exploit. So, I’m taking the OKC moneyline, Under on the 212.5 points total, and the Denver spread.
Money line: DEN (+235) / OKC (-290)
Total Points: 212.5
Spread: +7 DEN (-110) / -7 OKC (-110)
This is Jokic's moment, game 7 on the road to making it back to the Western Conference Finals. We’ve already seen some killer scoring nights from Jokic, but I expect another big performance from him tonight. I doubt he’ll spend much time on the bench with what is on the line here.
As excellent as Williams has been this season, this series has been tough on him. He hasn’t stepped up the way he needs to, scoring-wise. With this game being so important, I think the lights could be a little too bright for him. Considering he’s only had one game this entire series that went over 20 points, this line is looking solid.
SGA is likely to have the ball in his hands for most of the night. I doubt they'll rest him too much with everything on the line. Given that he’s been a bit more prone to turnovers than usual, 3 turnovers seems like a reasonable number. He’s had over 3 turnovers in the last three games, and the Denver zone defense has played a significant role in that. If they maintain their defensive pressure on SGA, this line could easily cash.
With Gordon potentially compromised coming into this game, we may see an uptick in minutes for Westbrook. He’s been excellent at snagging at least an offensive board or two in the last few games, and if he can do that while adding a defensive board, three rebounds are right in his wheelhouse. Westbrook might want this game more than anyone else on the Nuggets, so I expect maximum effort from him once again.