The Thunder are hitting the road to Denver, riding high after an exciting win in game five! With OKC now leading the series 3-2, this is Denver’s final chance to keep the series alive. However, playing at home makes them a tough team to beat! We’ll see if Jokic can extend this series to game seven or if the Thunder are headed to the Western Conference Finals to face off against the Minnesota Timberwolves!
Hunter Tyson Out
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Here we go, game six between the Thunder and Nuggets, the first game with real elimination consequences. This series nearly flipped on Tuesday, though. Denver was playing excellently in OKC, with a lead in the fourth, but then things changed as Denver struggled to find any offense. OKC ended up dominating in the fourth quarter and iced the game late with a few three-pointers. It felt like that could have been the last moment for Denver in this series, but it’s not over yet.
The funny thing about Denver in this series is that most believed it would be their defense that hurt them, but it’s actually been the offense dragging them down. In game five, Michael Porter Jr. had another dud; Murray was only effective in the third quarter, and the rest of the team shot so-so besides Jokic. The entire weight of this offense has fallen on Jokic’s back. He’s been up for the challenge, putting up 42 points in game five, but he needs help. The primary issue has been three-point shooting for Denver. When those shots are falling, it opens up the floor so much for Jokic to do his thing. If Denver is going to have a chance to force a game seven, they need to improve their three-point numbers. Defensively, they just need to keep doing what they’re doing. They’ve clearly made some of the OKC role players uncomfortable out there; it’s pretty much been the SGA show on offense. One area they do need to work on is rim defense, specifically backdoor cutting. Hartenstein was eating them alive the other night by cutting baseline and catching a lob from SGA. They can’t afford to help up on defense and need to close off that lane so OKC can’t add easy points. Overall, Denver is in an alright place coming into this game, but they’ll need plenty of things to go right to have a chance.
OKC, on the other hand, is behind the steering wheel. They control their own destiny now, but playing a game six on the road in Denver is not an easy task. This is the game they’ll need their role players to step up. You can guarantee that the Nuggets are going to throw everything they have at SGA again, which should lead to some wide-open shots. If players like Lu Dort can knock them down like he did in game five, OKC will likely advance today. However, they need to do a better job of getting defensive rebounds. That was a massive factor in why Denver took control in the third quarter last game. They fought hard for offensive rebounds, which narrowed the scoring gap and kept them in it. OKC needs to mark Westbrook when he’s on the court because he’s been the main issue, along with Peyton Watson. The Jokic offensive boards can be managed, but if you have guards beating you there, it’s an issue. In general, OKC has itself set up well tonight; they just need to maintain defensive pressure and take the open shots Denver is giving them. If they do that, they should have enough to overtake this struggling Denver offense.
I think we’ll see OKC advance tonight in a close game. Denver has been a much stronger opponent than I expected for the Thunder, but their cracks are getting wider every game they play. The roster just isn’t robust enough to keep up with OKC. Even with Jokic, the supporting cast just hasn’t stepped up to the plate to earn this one. That’s why I’m going with the OKC moneyline, over 217 for the combined points total, and the Denver spread.
Money line: OKC (-180) / DEN (+150)
Total Points: 217
Spread: -4.5 OKC (-112) / +4.5 DEN (-108)
This line seems a bit high for what Williams has been doing in this series. He’s only had one game out of the five they’ve played with over 20 points. His offensive presence hasn’t approached what he was doing in the regular season, and with the stakes getting higher tonight, I don’t expect him to perform exceptionally well either in Denver.
Points have been somewhat hard to come by for Gordon in this series. He’s struggled with his three-point shooting in the last couple of games, and with limited touches, a few misses can greatly affect a line like this. He’s also focused on other aspects of the game as the lead defender and has been handling the ball as well. Looking at the series so far, Gordon is likely to get close to this line, but he’s only surpassed it once, making the under a solid bet.
I think Denver has gradually lost faith in MPJ’s ability to impact this series. He’s been a liability on offense, missing most of his shots. While he provides size on defense, they’ve chosen to sacrifice that by playing Westbrook instead of him. With his minutes and shot volume continuing to decline, the under appears to be a worthwhile bet.
SGA has been exceptional on the defensive end. He’s always a threat to intercept a pass or disrupt a drive. He’s been grabbing steals this series as well, with at least two in four of the five games. Even though the odds aren’t the best, I still think it's a solid bet.