The Warriors are facing a crucial moment. On the road and down 1-3 in the series, the Wolves smell blood. It’s definitely going to be a challenging fight with Curry still resting from his hamstring strain, which puts the spotlight on Butler, Green, and Kuminga to step up and keep the team strong. With so much at stake, will we witness the Warriors snagging game five to keep their playoff dreams alive, or will Minnesota find themselves back in the Western Conference finals?
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Stephen Curry Out
This could be a pivotal moment for the Warriors. After an incredible turnaround this season, they’ve exceeded most expectations, but tonight could be where the fairytale wraps up. With the toll of this series really starting to show on Green and Butler, they’ll need to rally for one more game in Minnesota.
For the Warriors to have a chance in this matchup, someone needs to step up on the offensive end. In game three, Butler led the charge, but in game four, Kuminga was the only player on Golden State to score over 20 points. The starters struggled against Minnesota’s speed, and the second half of game four really highlighted their issues. It felt like the scoring faucet turned off for Golden State, going ice cold shooting while the Wolves kept up their first-half pace. The Warriors did manage to come back a bit, but it ended up being too little, too late. However, there are glimpses of optimism! In the fourth quarter, they started to find success going downhill against the Wolves, especially with Kuminga and Butler on the court. If they can maintain that aggressive approach and utilize their wings to drive to the rim, they might overcome some of their inconsistent shooting. Ultimately, they’ll need their shooters, like Podz or Hield, to heat up too.
On the defensive side, the Warriors have continued to impress, they've all put shutdown Gobert's offense despite being the smaller team. Beyond Randle and Edwards, they’ve managed to neutralize most of the role players, though it just hasn’t been quite enough.
For the Wolves, keeping the pressure and pace is key. The two-man game between Randle and Edwards has been unstoppable, with both players capable of driving to the basket or hitting threes, which put a lot of pressure on the Warriors’ defense in game four. If they can maintain their shooting from Randle and Edwards, it will be difficult for Golden State to keep up. The only issues have come when the Warriors' wings attack the paint; outside of that, they’ve done a good job containing the main scorers. If they can keep the starters from heating up, they’ll be in a strong position to build a lead. My only worry for the Timberwolves tonight is maintaining their shooting consistency. They can be a bit unpredictable, and if shots aren’t falling, it can lead to trouble. We saw this in game two when they shot below 20% from three. It’s a tough call to predict when it happens, and that uncertainty definitely keeps me on my toes regarding the Wolves.
Overall, the matchup appears fairly one-sided without Curry tonight. He was the glue that held the whole system together, and without him, I’m not sure the Warriors can keep pace offensively. Even if the Wolves have an off-shooting night, I haven’t seen enough from the Warriors to believe they can take down Edwards right now. He’s on a mission to lead this team to the finals, and with the game being on home turf, the Wolves will be eager to finish it tonight. Minnesota really wants to avoid letting this series slip back to Golden State for game six, especially with Curry likely returning. The aim should be to take down the Warriors tonight at all costs and steer clear of any surprises they might have in store. That’s why I’m sticking with the Minnesota moneyline, the over on the 202 points total, and the Warriors spread.
Money line: GSW (+370) / MIN (-485)
Total Points: 202
Spread: +10.5 GSW (-110) / -10.5 MIN (-110)
Randle has truly been the one player the Warriors haven’t figured out yet. He’s a fantastic rebounder and often goes unnoticed on offense, until he surprises everyone with a powerful dunk. He’s managed to surpass his scoring line in the last three games! As Draymond and Butler start to slow down in this series, I believe Randle has what it takes to outmuscle either of them down low. If he can do that, he’ll definitely be in a great position to exceed his scoring line again!
Game four is one of those moments when you can really see Curry’s amazing impact on the floor for GS! When he’s not playing, the spacing just doesn’t feel the same, leading to fewer open looks for the team. That’s made it a bit challenging for Hield, as his three-point attempts have gone down. If Hield doesn’t get at least 8 chances from beyond the arc tonight, it’s likely he’ll finish with well under this line.
After receiving several DNPs from Kerr this post-season, Kuminga might just be Golden State’s shining hope to keep the matchup alive. He’s been the downhill scorer that the Wolves have struggled to contain, mostly resorting to fouling him. However, with Kuminga looking to push forward in transition, I've noticed his rebounding numbers take a dip. Particularly when Kerr paired him with Looney, Kuminga didn’t manage to grab even a single board. I’m thinking we might see a similar scenario tonight with Kuminga moving into space early, creating opportunities for the team to secure rebounds behind him.
McDaniels has truly stood out as one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the playoffs this year! His impressive combination of size, athleticism, and basketball IQ makes him a challenge. Given the time he’s been getting on the court and focusing on defense, he’s already racked up quite a few steals and blocks. He’s already exceeded this line comfortably in two other games this series! With Curry out again tonight, I’m really excited to see McDaniels shine and put up some fantastic defensive numbers!