We’re heading back to Cleveland for game five of this series! It’s hard to believe that game five is an elimination game for the Cavs. After a tough setback in game four, this series is really on the edge as injuries continue to challenge the incredible journey of the Cavs. The Pacers have definitely brought their A-game and made things tricky for Cleveland, setting the stage for an exciting night ahead. Let’s see if the Cavs can hold their ground or if the Pacers will fight their way back to the conference finals!
Donovan Mitchell Questionable
None
It’s almost shocking that we’re already at an elimination game. The Cavs' entire playoff hopes ride in the balance of this one game, sitting 1-3 in the series. The Pacers have been a tough rival as their depth has become one of their biggest strengths over a battered Cavs team. With Mobley, Garland, Hunter, and now Mitchell banged up, it’s a little easier to see how we got here. It sounds like those four are all at least suiting up tonight, but this group hasn’t looked like the same team we watched dominate the Eastern Conference all year. However, when your entire season is on the line, it’s all hands on deck no matter how you’re feeling.
For the Cavs to have a chance in this one, they’ll need a relatively healthy Mitchell. He’s still questionable right now, but he was at shootarounds, which is a great sign. If they’re able to get at least 80% out of him, which might be a lot, they’ll be competitive in this one. The same goes for Hunter, Garland, and Mobley. Even if they’re not 100% yet, they’re going to need to give it everything they’ve got to pull through in this game. They have the talent, but unfortunately for them, all their role players who were so good all year have disappeared. With none of the backups stepping up as reliable options, the starters need to have a good game together. The first place they’ll need to start is on defense. They were one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially after adding Hunter. If they can use their size and length to disrupt the Pacers' shooting like in game three, they’ll be able to keep the points manageable. Keeping the score down could be critical for the Cavs because I don’t think they have nearly the scoring power they did without Mitchell putting in 120%. So chasing the Pacers off the arc, slowing down the pace, and keeping this game low-scoring will be the only way I see the Cavs staying alive in the playoffs.
As for the Pacers, they’re sitting in the driver's seat. You don’t see a ton of game five victories on the road, though. Most of the time, if there is a game to lose, it’s this one. I still think they have a solid chance. Even if everything isn’t draining like it was in game four, they’ve still outshot the Cavs left and right this series. Maintaining that scoring, especially from the arc, will be important. It opens the court up so much for this team to get going downhill, which has been one of their most effective traits. Their ability to use their athletes to run straight at the rim and force the defense to foul or give up an easy bucket is why they’ve managed to shoot over 50% from the field in most of this series. The Cavs just haven’t had an answer for it. Even with Haliburton a little banged up, this group has so many dangerous offensive weapons. We’ve seen the scoring leaders shift game after game. This is a game I think the Pacers can win too.
Looking at the direct matchup, I don’t see it for Cleveland. I think they might be done with the number of injuries they have sustained and what we saw in game four. We’ll likely see this group go out there and try, but they’ll break early if the Pacers keep draining threes on them. I think the series ends tonight, especially if Mitchell isn’t at the same level. Even with the Pacers on the road, they’ve been fearless this entire time. Unless Cleveland can lock in on defense, or the Pacers have an off-shooting night, I don’t see a great path back for Cleveland in this series. So I’d take the Pacers' moneyline, the Under on 230 point total, and the IND spread at +7.5.
Money line: IND (+230) / CLE (-285)
Total Points: 230
Spread: +7.5 IND (-108) / -7.5 CLE (-112)
Even though the Pacers are primarily a team-focused rebounding group, Turner has remained a solid contributor when he’s on the court. He’s only missed 7 rebounds once in this series, which happened when he was pulled early due to the blowout. Aside from that single game, when Turner receives his full workload, he has been quite consistent at grabbing 7 rebounds.
This is a somewhat challenging line. On one hand, we’ve only seen Obi hit this line once during this series. However, in game four, he received a bit more playing time and was dominant in running the floor against the Cavs. Some of those points came in garbage time, but I believe Obi will play an important role off the bench tonight.
Although Hunter just returned from injury, the Cavs will need him much more tonight. After making his first appearance in game four, which turned into a blowout, the Cavs pulled the plug early. Even though Hunter played only 16 minutes in that game, he still scored 5 points, all earned at the free-throw line. If he can extend his minutes tonight, continue to get to the line, and knock down a shot or two, this over line looks very promising!
Garland hasn’t been the primary playmaker in any of these games. The ball has predominantly been in Mitchell’s hands on most possessions, as Garland hasn’t quite been at 100%. However, the twist is Donovan Mitchell's availability. He was at shoot-arounds today, which should provide some hope for his game readiness, but we’ll need to wait for the final word. If Mitchell plays, the under on Garland's assists looks very strong!