The series is all tied as we head back to OKC for game 5! The Nuggets have really come out as a tougher opponent than many thought for OKC, keeping this game super close and pushing OKC to give their all to break through. With only three games left in the series, tonight could be a crucial turning point. Regardless of the outcome, we’re definitely looking at an exciting elimination game in game six. Who will it be for? We'll find out after tonight's matchup!
Hunter Tyson Out
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Here we are, somehow, OKC feels fortunate to be tied at this point. Even as the underdogs, the Nuggets have managed to keep OKC working hard out there. They’ve been bumping and grinding on both ends of the court, which is starting to take a toll. We see both teams struggling to get anything to go in from deep, with both shooting below 30% from three in game four. Overall, the offensive efficiency seems to have dropped in general. After another flight from Denver back to OKC, I don’t expect to see the best offense of my life tonight.
For Denver, this feels like a must-win game. Winning back-to-back against OKC, with the last game in OKC, feels like a massive ask for this group. They’ve been surprisingly strong against one of the best rosters in the league, but I’m worried about them. In game four, they kept sneaking back up on OKC, but then OKC would just inch away from them. They need to find a second wind on offense. With the three-point shot drying up everywhere, it feels like the best solution for Denver offensively is to try to run Gordon to the rim. Jokic would be the natural answer, but OKC is throwing two at him almost every time he touches the paint. It’s either Chet and Hartenstein or whoever is playing the 4 at the moment, but it’s been effective. They have been extremely physical with Jokic, which looks like it’s gotten under his skin several times. In game four, he only shot 7-22 from the field, well below his normal averages. He did manage to make it to the line for 14 free throws, but that was kind of the point of OKC’s defense. They’re fine sacrificing points at the line to kill Jokic’s efficiency, so Gordon is the next best option. They can still play through Jokic, but we need to see more Gordon in the dunker spot, which seems counterintuitive because he’s been one of the best corner shooters in the playoffs, but they need to find easy buckets tonight. If Jokic can pull defenders out, Gordon can continuously attack behind OKC, and hopefully for Denver, bring some of the pressure off Jokic. For that to work, though, we’ll need to see either Murray or Porter Jr hit their shots, which is a big if. Either way, improving their offensive efficiency is the only way I see Denver winning tonight.
For OKC, they just need to keep the effort up. They’re tired, they’ve played a grueling season, and the miles really look like they’re wearing on the team. Chet, specifically, has been a bit sluggish and hasn’t been as effective on offense because of it. So if OKC can come into this game a little more rested, being at home, I think that could be all the edge they need to start working on Denver. Otherwise, it’s going to be all about their defense. If they can keep Jokic out of this groove, they’ll be in a great spot. However, I don’t think we’ll see that again. We’ve seen back-to-back games with Jokic shooting under 40% from the field. That’s unlike him, and it is partly due to the OKC defense, but I don’t think you can count on another poor shooting game from Jokic. The Thunder have been sending him to the line a lot already, so if he gets a few of those and-ones to drop, Denver will be hard to keep up with.
Overall, this game is going to come down to shooting. If one of these teams is still on tired legs, and the other finds their shooting rhythm, it’s going to be one-sided. So, as much as I’d like to say I believe in Denver tonight, I trust their shooting less. Unless Jokic comes alive in this game and returns to form, I think we'll see a reinvigorated OKC at home tonight. So I’d take the OKC moneyline, Under on 220.5 points total, and Denver’s +9.5 spread.
Money line: DEN (+330) / OKC (-425)
Total Points: 220.5
Spread: +9.5 DEN (-110) / -9.5 OKC (-110)
Gordon has been fabulous in this series. He’s arguably been one of the most clutch players this entire postseason and has kept Denver competitive. Considering the Nuggets are back in OKC, I expect a tough game for the Nugs, but I still believe in Gordon. He’s exceeded this line in two games this series, and at only 16 points for the over, he has a great chance of achieving it if he can avoid foul trouble.
Normally, I don’t jump on the alternative lines, but tonight feels like a big Jokic night. I think we’ll see him on the court for nearly the entire game unless things start to get out of hand. Winning tonight is critical for Denver to have a chance, because a game seven in OKC would be brutal. So, I expect Jokic to do his work on the back board again tonight. He’s already had two games this series with over 15 rebounds, so even though it’s the alternative line, it still looks promising.
Chet has been a key part of OKC’s defensive success by cleaning up defensive boards. He’s recorded under 10 rebounds only once this series, in game one, where he struggled with fouls from the beginning. As long as he can avoid early foul trouble, 10 rebounds should be a given for him.
Playmaking hasn’t been SGA’s primary role this series or for most of the year, only averaging 6.4 assists per game during the season. Considering he’s only exceeded this line twice this series, and by just one assist both times, gives me some confidence. Especially after Jalen Williams just had his best game of the playoffs in game three, I could see him take on some of the offensive workload if he’s feeling it again.