Now that the series is back in the hands of the Timberwolves, the Warriors have a challenging game four ahead of them. After losing their first home game, the series stands at 2-1. With Curry not likely to return until game six at the earliest, the outlook seems tough. It’ll be interesting to see if Kerr can inspire the team without Curry or if the Timberwolves will seize this opportunity to take a strong 3-1 lead in San Francisco tonight.
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Stephen Curry Out
This series was shaping up to be one of the best in the second round. When the Warriors stole game one in Minnesota, it looked like they’d be a real threat to the Wolves. Unfortunately, game two had different plans when Curry suffered a hamstring strain. Luckily, it wasn’t too bad, but reports say he’s unlikely to return before game six of the series, which could be too late. The Warriors appear a bit lost without him, and scoring has become their primary issue.
If Golden State is going to have a chance in this matchup, they’ll need their role players to step up, mainly Buddy Hield. We’ve already seen him have some electric scoring nights in this series and the regular season. He’s capable of pulling it off, and if there is one game to do it, it’s at home to avoid going down 3-1. Beyond Hield, we did see Kerr turn back to Kuminga in game three. He had one of his best games, scoring 30 points off the bench in 36 minutes. He’s one of the few athletes Golden State has who can legitimately challenge the Wolves. Pairing him with Butler actually looked like one of the best solutions for Golden State. So if they can make that work again and get a good Hield or Podz game, they could be right in this one. They kept game three close, only losing by 5 points in the end, so this could be another close one.
The Wolves, on the other hand, seem to be in control. This will likely be their game to lose if they end up shooting themselves out of it. They’ve been fantastic from three in games two and three, but that first game, woof, they struggled. As long as they can avoid a shooting night like that, they should be able to pressure the Warriors all over the court tonight. Defense is where they can really pull ahead. They’ll need to match up better on the Warriors’ wings, especially if they go back to the Jimmy Kuminga duo. They have the personnel to pull it off in McDaniels, NAW, Naz, and Gobert to lock down the paint. Overall, the Timberwolves just have to keep attacking. If they can keep their presence in the paint strong, not rely solely on threes, and maintain a high pace, I don’t see the Warriors keeping up.
I truly believe we’ll see the Timberwolves come out on top in tonight's game! With Curry sidelined, the Timberwolves have the advantage as the deeper and stronger team right now. While we might witness some of the Golden State role players stepping up and delivering impressive performances, I wouldn’t feel too confident betting on that. Without Curry, it’s hard for me to picture the Warriors clinching this victory. He has been absolutely crucial for spreading the floor, keeping the ball moving, and maintaining scoring pressure. With him out, I have my doubts about Golden State having enough firepower to overcome Minnesota. I’m picking the Minnesota moneyline, the Over on a total of 199.5 points, and I’m also taking the -5.5 MIN spread.
Moneyline: MIN (-225) / GSW (+185)
Total Points: 199.5
Spread: -5.5 MIN (-110) / +5.5 GSW (-110)
I like this line tonight on the Gobert over. He struggled to stay on the court when the Warriors had Curry spreading the floor, but with him out, Gobert can be a real issue for Kuminga, Green, and Butler’s scoring. With his ability to lock down the paint, I expect to see Gobert out there a ton tonight, which should give him the opportunity to grab some boards. He had 13 in game three with Curry gone, so I expect to see a similar level of production from him tonight.
Naz has been one of the best offensive options for Minnesota. His size and ability to spread the floor have made it impossible for the Warriors to match up well against him. He’s also made at least three threes in every game this series. With the line only set at 1.5, he’s set up nicely to hit it again!
This might be a little overreaction from game three, but Kuminga looks like the Warriors' only scoring replacement for Curry. Hield has been hit or miss, Butler’s offense has been limited, and Podz has been too inconsistent. Kuminga hasn’t been great in the postseason in the limited time we’ve seen him on the court, but he's the only real matchup threat left on the Warriors. Scoring 30 points in game three, 18 seems doable for him if Kerr gives him another long run like in game three.
Butler remains one of the few true playmakers on the team. With Curry sidelined, we’ve seen Butler take over most possessions as the primary ball handler, even when Podz or Hield are on the court. Butler has also been logging an absurd number of minutes trying to keep the series together. He played 43 minutes in game three. If he has another long stretch and continues to find the ball in his hands frequently, 7 assists is very attainable. He’s hit this line in two of the three games this series.