Moving on to game four, the series stands at 2-1, with the Knicks leading the way. However, Boston is poised for a fantastic opportunity to even things up at Madison Square Garden, where they’re determined to maintain their impressive road streak. With Boston gaining momentum, it’ll be exciting to see if the Knicks can hold on to their series lead or if Boston has really found their rhythm this time!
Sam Hauser Questionable
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Game four is here, with Boston back in it, this game is going to be make or break for both sides. For Boston, going down 3-1 doesn’t mean they’d be out of it, but it would certainly turn the intensity to eleven. However, this game might be even more key for the Knicks. Boston bullied New York all season and was widely viewed as the better team. With momentum shifting a little towards Boston, losing tonight would flip the script and put the Knicks in a hole. Their series in general may all come down to this game!
For Boston, the game will be all about shooting. That’s how this team operates: they take a million threes, and games they’re missing, they’re almost guaranteed to lose. That was the issue in games one and two in Boston. The Celtics shot 25% from three and struggled to pull away against the much more consistent offense of New York. With Boston finding some hot hands in game three, they managed to blow out the Knicks. It’s almost like nothing else really matters for Boston besides shooting.
The Knicks are a little bit more interesting in conversation. New York has a much steadier offense. They like to attack the rim, Brunson is excellent at getting to the free throw line, and they can punish teams from three. However, they don’t have the top-end explosive scoring ability Boston does. So if the game gets out of the 105 points range, the Knicks have struggle to keep up. A large part of that comes down to limited scoring options off the bench. Comparing the two benches, Miles McBride might be the only real scoring threat off the Knicks’ bench compared to Boston, who has Pritchard, Kornet, and Porzingis. The Knicks have to get their scoring done through their starters, which can be challenging against Boston. Even with the Knicks having some solid wings, Boston has a strong enough defense to harass New York all over the court. Especially when the Knicks wings aren’t hitting threes, all of the scoring falls on the back of Brunson. He’s been amazing at carrying the load well, but the Knicks will need something out of their wings. In game one, we saw OG step up, in game two, it was Hart, and in game three, no one. It’s clear that the Knicks need scoring from at least one wing to stay competitive.
In terms of this matchup, the Celtics have a slight edge tonight. You can see the wear and tear of this series starting to affect the Knicks. The Celtics have slowed down a bit, too, but with their offense so heavily reliant on threes, they’ve avoided some of the grind. If Boston can keep knocking down shots and maintain scoring pressure, the Knicks are going to struggle to keep up. As much as I'd like to take the enticing plus odds on New York tonight, Boston is just too strong of a road team. They dominated all year, and if the offense can find its shooting rhythm early, I doubt we’ll see the Knicks keep up in a shootout. If the Knicks can pressure the perimeter shooters like in games one and two, they might lower Boston's success rate; however, with Boston, it’s a numbers game. As long as they’re hitting at least 35% of their threes, they’re likely to take this one. So I’m sticking with Boston’s moneyline, the Under on the 208 points total, and the Knicks to keep it close with their +6.5 spread.
Moneyline: BOS (-258) / NYK (+210)
Total Points: 208
Spread: -6.5 BOS (-110) / +6.5 NYK Knicks (-110)
Pritchard was the hero of game three with an explosive performance off the bench. The man could not miss, as he led the team in scoring. Although that game was somewhat of an outlier for the playoffs, he has been a great sparkplug scorer off the bench all year! So with the line set at only 9.5, the over seems very achievable if he’s feeling his jumper again tonight!
OG started off the series strong but has disappeared in games two and three. He’s a capable scorer, but when his three-point shot isn’t falling, he struggles to put up a meaningful score. He hit six threes in game one, but since then, he has only made one in the last two games. With the Knicks seemingly moving farther away from OG on offense, I think 15 points might be a bit high if the last two games are indicative of a trend rather than just an outlier.
Josh Hart has been one of the strongest rebounders in this series. KAT still needs the Knicks in rebounds, but when Hart is out there, he’s excellent at chasing down long rebounds and moving in transition. However, outside of game one, Hart has fallen well below this line, and considering how much defense Hart has been asked to play, it’s not surprising his rebounding numbers are slipping. With the line still at 9.5, the under is looking excellent tonight.
Holiday time with the ball continues to drop, but he’s still been making plays here and there. Especially when the Celtics are shooting well, Holiday is very capable of earning 4 assists. He’s done it in both games two and three while averaging just under 4 a game all season. This line will probably come down to how well the Celtics shoot from range, but if they’re around average, Holiday should be fine snagging a few assists.