We’re all tied up going to Denver. The Nuggets were embarrassed in game two in OKC, getting blown out at nearly a historic rate. OKC came out swinging after the Nuggets stole game one in the final seconds. Now, we get to see what Jokic can do at altitude in Denver. We’ll see if OKC can keep up their dominance, or if Denver will strike back to take the series lead!
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This series has been like Jekyll and Hyde. In game one, we saw the Nuggets rally back behind an MVP-level effort from Jokic. He was fired up that game and ultimately clawed back a win in the final moments against OKC. Then, OKC turned around and crushed Denver in game two. I believe a significant reason for the variance has been officiating. We’ve seen plenty of fouls throughout this series, with well over 60 free throws per game, but physicality has been the deciding factor in both. In game one, Denver emerged as the bigger, stronger, and more mature team. They essentially punched OKC in the face, with Jokic doing much of the bumping down low. They set the tone for a fierce battle that probably left everyone bruised, but the officials allowed Denver to be the aggressors in that game. In game two, OKC retaliated. They swarmed Jokic in the paint, pushing back against his bullying from game one. The biggest difference was that Jokic got to the line frequently in game one, but not in game two, which completely changed the pace of the game for Denver. The physicality down low also disrupted Jokic’s shooting, as he only hit 6-16 from the floor while desperately trying to get calls in the paint. The refs let them play on, though, and eventually the game spiraled out of control, resulting in the Denver starters being benched.
I expect the tone to be set early in the game tonight, which will tell us a lot about how successful these teams can be. Of course, officiating and physicality are only part of the story. Another significant difference between these games was the scoring from role players on OKC. They shot the ball well from beyond the arc and eased some of the scoring burden off SGA. If the role players can maintain that level of efficiency while moving at that pace, it will be nearly impossible for Denver to keep up.
For Denver to have a chance in this one, they have to get gritty. They need to slow the pace, play tough down low, and find efficient shots at the rim. That all starts with Jokic, so if we see him getting a good shot or two down low, the Nuggets are in business. On the other end of the court, they have to remain physical. Pushing guys off their spots, keeping a hand on them, and generally doing anything they can to make this young group uncomfortable is crucial. In other words, they’ll probably have to get dirty—pulling jerseys, hooking arms, and doing anything to disrupt the team's collective focus.
For OKC, they simply need to stay focused. They are the better team; they just need to trust their young core of role players to deliver, especially Jalen Williams. He had 17 in game two and was generally much more impactful. Game one was a different story, as he left SGA on islands, scoring-wise. They’ll need Chet and Hartenstein to at least provide some scoring pressure to keep Denver honest on SGA. If they can do that, I’m not sure if Denver has the offense to keep up. Ultimately, the game plan is much easier for OKC: find good shots, feed SGA, and match physicality on defense. They’ve been executing that all year, so just because it’s the playoffs, I don’t see them changing.
As much as I’d like to take Denver tonight, I just don’t see it happening. OKC showed us exactly who they are on Wednesday. They’re deep, strong, and can make life challenging on defense. I just don’t see Denver pulling this one out unless OKC has an off shooting night or Jokic has another iconic game. For the lines tonight, I’m going with OKC’s moneyline, over on the 232 points total, and OKC’s spread.
Moneyline: DEN (+195) / OKC (-238)
Total Points: 232
Spread: +5.5 DEN (-108) / -5.5 OKC (-112)
Man, SGA has been great this series. In the blowout second game, he could have easily scored 50. He tallied 34 points in only 30 minutes on the court; he was infallible. However, he’s only just covered the spread in both games, and now that they’re headed to Denver, I’m a little worried that tonight could have him down on points a bit. He does so much damage at the free-throw line, and if the refs let Denver get a bit more physical, I could see him finishing a little short of this line tonight.
Game two was rough for Jokic. He was getting a lot of contact that wasn’t being called, and it threw the whole team out of rhythm early. With OKC shooting the lights out, the game quickly slipped away from them. In game one, though, I don’t think I’ve seen a more passionate Jokic. He cares about this series, and now on home court, I think we’re going to see him dominate. Especially if he receives a few more whistles like in game one, where he had 13 free throw attempts; 28 points for the over is nice.
Gordon’s rebounding ability has been one of the sneakier ways he’s impacted the game. With how hard OKC crashes the paint at times, his size and strength have been critical in snagging boards. In game one, he had 14 rebounds, which was a massive reason they were able to come back. In game two, he only had 5, but they pulled him early, so he was well on his way to surpassing 7. As long as we don’t experience another blowout, I love the over on 6.5 with plus odds.
Dort hasn’t been massive guarding the paint; he’s much more of a perimeter-oriented guy. However, he did get a block in both second-round games so far. He only averages 0.6 blocks a game, but with two blocks in the series and plus odds on the line, it’s tempting. I could see him keeping the streak up tonight.