Somehow, the Cavs are heading to Indiana, trailing 0-2 in the series. No one expected the Pacers to win a game in Cleveland, let alone two! In both games, we’ve seen an absolute collapse by the Cavs, leading to two 20-point comebacks and clutch wins by the Pacers. They have been two of the best games of the playoffs so far, making game three a must-watch tonight!
De’Andre Hunter Questionable
Darius Garland Questionable
Evan Mobley Questionable
None
After watching Cleveland dominate all season, they’re now looking down the barrel of two losses in the series against Indiana. It’s been one of the most stunning sequences of events we’ve seen in the NBA Playoffs in a while. With the Cavs struggling with injuries to three starters, this is far from the team we saw secure the number one spot in the Eastern Conference this year. However, that might be changing tonight as there is some optimism surrounding Hunter, Garland, and Mobley. No official word has been given, but on the road and down two in the series, you’d have to imagine they’ll be playing if possible. There has been one positive outcome from the Cavs' misfortune, though: Donovan Mitchell. That man has been carrying the team and delivering one of the most impressive MJ impersonations I’ve ever seen. He has a combined 81 points in the first two games alone and has single-handedly pushed the Cavs into a competitive position, but it hasn’t been enough.
The Cavs have played some solid basketball, but it's at the end where things have fallen apart catastrophically for them. Particularly in game two, with Haliburton intentionally missing a free throw, grabbing the rebound, and then nailing the game-winner. That shot was truly what the playoffs are about, and anyone who isn’t a Cleveland fan was most likely jumping out of their seat. However, that shot changed the calculations for the entire series for the Cavs. If that ball rolls off the rim or the Cavs get the rebound, we’re looking at a tied series with Cleveland getting healthier. But now, they don’t have the luxury of time. Going down 0-3 would be a death note from which no team has ever recovered. So expect a sense of urgency from Cleveland like you’ve never seen before.
Even though they are down players, Cleveland has the tools to beat the Pacers. They’ve just shrunk late in the game, falling in love with threes and slipping on defense. Most of the defensive issues for the Cavs are actually things you can address, too; they’re not losing because of matchups. One of the largest pain points for the Cavs has been the pace and transition defense. They were allowing too many passes to get over the top of them in transition, leading to easy baskets. They need to tighten up, move quicker back on defense, and take away those easy points. A large part of that is due to them missing Mobley and Hunter. They’re two of Cleveland’s best defenders; without them, the holes in defense have been glaring. Adding their size and athleticism back into the mix on defense could cause havoc for the Pacers' offense. So ultimately, it’s hard to say that the Cavs need to do too much differently beyond getting their players back.
For Indiana, we’ve seen them go down by 20 in both games. They’ve also been shooting much better than the Cavs throughout the second round. They’ve shot at least 10% better from three in both games, and have been well over 50% from the field. That’s nothing new for the Pacers, though, who lead the league in shooting percentage from the field and three-point range. However, it’s still concerning that they’ve been shooting near their peak abilities and still falling into these holes. Part of that just comes from the rhythm of the Pacers’ high-paced offense. Once they find a groove, they can hit you hard in a short amount of time. But still, if the Cavs are able to increase their shooting from three by just 5%, that’s enough to bury the Pacers. That’s what really concerns me about them. It would only take Dean Wade or Ty Jerome getting hot to put the Pacers in some trouble.
Overall, I think we’ve seen the best of Indiana, without getting a full look at the Cavs. I think if we see at least Mobley back in the lineup tonight, the Pacers could struggle, but with no information on their status, it’s hard to pick the Cavs. I think even though I’d say the Cavs are the better team, in this circumstance, the Pacers look like the more favorable betting option. We’ve seen them align wonderfully over the last couple of games, as this extremely deep bench has kept tremendous pressure on Cleveland. Common thought would be that the Cavs steal this game back, but at home, shooting well, with a terrific coach, this is the time to put the dagger in Cleveland. So I’m going with the Pacers on the money line, I’m taking the over on the 230.5 points total, and the Indiana spread.
Money line: CLE (-218) / IND (+180)
Total Points: 230.5
Spread: -5.5 CLE (-110) / +5.5 IND (-110)
Mitchell keeps delivering electric performances in this series. He scored 33 points in game one and 48 in game two. He’s been doing everything he can to carry this wounded team toward victory. With injuries still looming over the Cavs, it looks like it could come down to Mitchell again tonight. Expect another big night from Mitchell in Indiana.
This bet acts as a hedge that Mobley will suit up tonight. In the last game, Allen finished with 12 rebounds, but in game one, when Mobley was on the court, he finished with only 5. With the line set at 10.5, the under looks much more appealing if he shares rebounding duties again.
This line is going to come down to Haliburton’s shooting. In game one, the shots were falling freely for him, so he moved the ball, found the open man, and boom, finished with 13 assists. In game two, he was feeling it, shooting 7 for 11 on the night, but only snagging 4 assists. I think heading back home against a potentially more available Cavs team could affect his passing or at least the shooting of his teammates. I’d say play it safe with the under tonight.
This might be one of the most fun lines for the game. We’ve seen Turner be a menace on defense in both of these games. In game one, he snagged three steals and two blocks. In the second game, he recorded five blocks and one steal. He’s been filling up the defensive box score, and now that he's headed home, I love this 3.5 line for Stocks, especially grabbing plus odds on it.