What a surprise in the first game between these two teams, with the Nuggets pulling off an upset against OKC right at home! Especially after the Nuggets had a tough battle against the Clippers that dragged on for seven games, leaving Denver with just a day to recharge before facing the Western Conference favorites. Nonetheless, Denver rallied from behind late to steal game one of the Western Conference semifinals!
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Game one shows why you can never discount Jokic. He was incredible in that game, helping the Nuggets come back late to steal game one from OKC. It wasn’t just Jokic either; we saw some heroic performances from Gordon and Westbrook as well, contributing to the victory.
This may have been a wake-up call for OKC that they’re not going to just cruise to the finals. Some issues with this team reared their ugly heads on Monday, and they need to figure it out on the fly now. The biggest challenge OKC continues to face is scoring diversity. SGA has been incredible this year, scoring 33 in game one, but the rest of the team needs to contribute more. The only other meaningful offensive contribution from the Thunder came from Alex Caruso off the bench, who scored 20. No one else besides Caruso or SGA scored more than 16 points.
For OKC to turn this series around in game two, they need to find another hot hand. Jalen Williams has been an excellent secondary scorer for OKC most of the year, but this is a tough matchup for him. We’ve seen him shrink under the bright lights before, such as in the NBA Cup game earlier this season. To stand out as the favorite in the West, OKC needs a strong performance from J-Dub tonight. They also have to address their rebounding issues. The Nuggets managed to snag 20 more boards than they did, which gave them the opportunities they needed to come back. The only player hustling for the boards was SGA; we’ll need to see more urgency from the Thunder in rebounding on both ends of the court.
On the other hand, the Nuggets need to keep up the defensive pressure on the young players. They made this game brutally physical from the start, showing that OKC can be rattled. They were able to completely throw Chet and Williams off their grooves throughout the game. They didn’t leave a single OKC starter without a bruise, setting the tempo for this series early on. The Nuggets walked in as grown men, and OKC will have to match that level of physicality to slow them down.
Jokic was a bully in this game as well. I don’t think I’ve seen him more intense about a single basketball game than in game one. He was yelling at the bench, picked up a flagrant foul, and threw his weight around in the paint like a linebacker. This man willed his team to stay in the game, and with some luck, they managed to get the last laugh.
Of course, it’s going to be a challenge for the Nuggets again tonight. They barely pulled through game one after a pair of missed free throws from Holmgren and then a dagger three from Gordon. That’s not a recipe you can replicate, but the rest of the game is. They still managed to put themselves in a position to steal the game after a tough battle. I don’t think the Nuggets will be able to pull it off again, but expect them to maintain the physicality. They’re planning for a long series; by the end, it might resemble more of a cage fight than a basketball series.
I think we’ll see OKC turn it around tonight, but it’s still going to be rough. The Nuggets are going to come into tonight's game smelling blood, and OKC can’t afford to let both of their homecourt games slip away. I expect it to stay close, but OKC has the chops to tie the series up.
Money line: DEN (+380) / OKC (-500)
Total Points: 229.5
Spread: +10.5 DEN (-110) / -10.5 OKC (-110)
Jokic was the standout in Game One, and it’s clear that the Thunder don’t have much to counter him. Hartenstein performed fine, but Chet simply lacked the strength to compete with Jokic down low. Going into Game Two, nothing has really changed, and I expect Jokic to again be the focal point of the Nuggets’ offense. After taking 29 shots in Game One, I doubt that number will decrease significantly tonight, giving Jokic an excellent opportunity to score 29 or more points!
Chet had a tough game in Game One. He only managed 12 points, going 5-11 from the field and missing all his threes. He played less than 30 minutes too, which was a tad surprising, but the matchup against Gordon and Jokic doesn’t exactly help. Considering the Thunder need more offense against OKC tonight, I could see Chet getting a solid chance, but if he’s not hitting early, he might lose even more time tonight.
SGA hasn’t been a top-tier rebounder this year, but tonight I could see him increasing his numbers. He had 10 in Game One simply because they needed him on the court for his offense throughout the game. I don’t see that changing tonight, meaning SGA will probably see another 40+ minute run, giving him plenty of opportunities to grab some boards.
Murray is usually a fairly secure ball handler, but playing against OKC presents a different experience. They have some of the shiftiest hands in the league, leading the NBA in steals this year. This led to Murray giving the ball up four times in Game One. With the line only set at 2.5, this over looks terrific for this matchup.