Injuries hurt the Cavaliers in game one, leaving them a bit short-handed, which is an opportunity Indiana was eager to seize. Now with the series at 1-0 in favor of Indy, we’re heading back to Cleveland for game two. There’s a sense of optimism surrounding Garland’s potential return tonight, which could bring the Cavs closer to full strength. No matter what, the team will need to elevate their game against a talented Indiana squad!
De’Andre Hunter Questionable
Darius Garland Questionable
Evan Mobley Questionable
None
Well, in a surprising upset, the Pacers managed to take game one in Cleveland. Behind a flurry of threes, the Pacers shot 19-36 from the arc for an impressive 52.8% from three. If they’re going to shoot that way every game, they might as well put their name on the Larry O’Brien Trophy already, because WOW. However, the odds are they aren’t going to do that again, and with the possibility of Garland returning from injury, this series might become a little more even quickly.
The Cavs came into game one without Garland due to a toe injury. There are still questions about whether he’s going to suit up tonight, or even if Mobley or Hunter are ready to play as they’re also on the injury list. If they’re out, or even less than at full strength, this could be another challenging game for the Cavs. The Pacers have been strong since they demolished an injury-stricken Bucks team again. The pieces have kind of fallen together; as Pascal Siakam takes up the mantle of leading scorer, the rest of the offense has joined in a beautiful fashion. Carlisle has been putting on a master class of roster management and player rotation this postseason. We’ve seen the Pacers take a leap in a way very few expected so late in the year. Now, they’re threatening the Cavs’ chance of reaching the conference finals.
This series is far from over, though; the Cavs were dominant all season for a reason. The size and multi-positionality of this team have been impressive. The towers down low of Mobley and Allen have been devastating, while Mitchell has been the offensive leader. However, he might be getting even more offensive responsibility than he can handle. In game one, he had 30 shot attempts and 9 free throws. It felt like a rarity to see anyone besides Mitchell shoot, and it made defense easy for Indiana. However, there is something to be said for the Cavs only losing by 9 when there was nearly a 30% difference in three-point shooting percentage, and missing their third-best offensive player. If the law of averages takes over a bit tonight, and the Cavs don’t shoot an abysmal 23.7% from three again, the Pacers might be in trouble unless they can shoot the leather off the ball again tonight.
Overall, this game is going to come down to the Cavs' availability and shooting. If they’re near full strength and shoot at least average, I think they’ll be able to take this one. The Pacers had an epic game one to steal homecourt advantage from the Cavs, but bounce-back games are a thing. Especially when you have the coach of the year, Kenny Atkinson, calling the shots for the Cavs. I expect to see meaningful adjustments coming into game two. Pair that with some more reasonable shooting from Indiana, it should give the Cavs an excellent chance to take the game tonight.
Money line: IND (+280) / CLE (-355)
Total Points: 229.5
Spread: +8.5 IND (-110) / -8.5 CLE (-110)
The Pacers played a hell of a game one, no doubt, but I just don’t see that level of success hitting again tonight. They have an excellent core of guys, but if there was one thing holding the Pacers back this year, it’s been their streaky offense. Haliburton has been up and down shooting all year, along with the rest of the roster outside of Pascal. If they come back to earth shooting-wise wise the strength of the Cavs will likely shine through. Especially if they get everyone back for the game tonight, notably Garland, this should be a game the Cavs can take.
It looks like we witnessed an impressive scoring game from the Pacers, and it might be a while before we see something like that again. If Atkinson can manage the pace and make better use of his bigs without overworking Mitchell, we could see the points decrease a bit. Throughout the first round, we only had a handful of games where both teams exceeded this total. So, the under seems quite enticing tonight, especially if the shooting isn’t as strong as before.
This spread really feels a bit off for the Pacers. Even if they don’t hit that impressive 50% from three tonight, they should still be quite competitive with Cleveland, especially if they shoot closer to their season average. Winning game one has truly boosted my confidence in this team! While I don’t think they’ll win this game, I also don’t expect the Cavs to run away with it.
Allen is a great rebounder, but getting plus money on the under is a little too juicy to pass up. He only managed to reel in 5 boards in game one. Averaging just under 10 boards per game in the regular season, this is looking like a solid line, especially if Mobley is able to play tonight!
All roads ran through Mitchell in game one; he had 30 shot attempts and 9 attempts from the line, finishing with 33 points. With doubts about Garland’s return and some questions about Mobley and Hunter tonight, all the scoring burden might fall on Mitchell’s shoulders for game two as well. If so, expect Mitchell to take a massive number of attempts again, which gives him an excellent chance of hitting 30 points tonight!
This line looks a little low to me. Haliburton hasn’t exactly had a standout scoring year, but he’s still rarely a guy to bet against going off. Considering the Cavs may be short-handed in their backcourt again, that could give Haliburton some extra room to score tonight. Landing 22 points in game one on solid shooting and 19 points in game two is well within reach.
Mathurin has been a key contributor off the bench for Indiana so far. They’ve utilized him as an effective change-of-pace option who can attack the rim at a moment's notice and leverage his strength on defense. His rebounding has been a subtle part of his game. Snagging 5 boards in game one, he averaged 5 boards per game during the regular season. Setting the line at 3.5 seems a bit low compared to what we’ve observed from him all year.