Here we are, after a tough series against Houston, the Warriors prevail, advancing to the second round only to face the Timberwolves. After a dominant series against the Lakers, the Timberwolves proved they are one of the most dangerous teams in the Western Conference. With size, strength, and versatility, it will take everything the Warriors have to overcome this group.
Rob Dillingham Out
Gary Payton II Questionable
This is the first time these teams are meeting in their current form this year. The Timberwolves haven’t played against Jimmy Butler with Golden State. In fact, it’s been nearly four years since Butler has played in Minnesota at all. The former Timberwolf himself is going to hear about it from the fans as they take on the Wolves in Minnesota for game one.
These two teams don’t have much history this year anyway. They’ve played only a handful of times in the regular season, with the Warriors suffering from injuries in nearly all three games. We never even had a glimpse of what these teams look like at full strength against each other. However, the matchup is fairly similar to what we just saw in the first round from both teams. The Warriors faced a bigger, younger team that ultimately couldn’t compete against a team of Hall of Famers. Then the Wolves knocked off LeBron and Luka in a star-studded lineup in LA.
That LA series gave me a lot of confidence in the Wolves coming into this one. Anthony Edwards looks like an unstoppable force. His ability to take over games offensively while still not being a pushover on defense has been impressive. But what’s been almost more impressive is how the role players on the Wolves have come together. Gobert, Randle, McDaniels, Reid, and DiVincenzo have been different in the postseason. They’re playing together, filling gaps, and balancing the workload while attacking weaknesses. The combination of size and shooting across the starters has been a challenging combination to take on. Even against three blue-chip scorers in Reaves, Luka, and LeBron, the Wolves were able to push through almost every game. Defensively, they’ve been a nightmare as well, with McDaniels looking like one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the league. That’s still not even mentioning the versatility they have with Reid, Randle, and Gobert in the post. Everything about this team seems to be falling into place at the perfect time.
They’ll still have to prove it, and we’ve seen teams like this taken out by more veteran groups all the time. The Warriors could be that veteran team. They’re tricky, have plenty of scoring, and can identify weaknesses instantly. The only question coming into this game about the Warriors is Curry. He has been dealing with some issue with his thumb during the Houston series, and that’s affecting his performance; it could be a problem. Ultimately, I think the Warriors will have to win on offense. We’ve seen the Wolves have some poor scoring games, and if they can force the ball out of Edwards’ hands, those games become much more likely. The Warriors need to maintain high scoring pressure similar to their series against Houston. They managed to prevent Houston from moving in fast breaks and slowed down the pace by getting to the line. That will be critical again tonight. They’ll need Jimmy to get to the line, and one of the role players, whether it’s Hield again, Podz, or even Moody, to step up with their scoring. Of course, Curry is always the biggest offensive threat, but that’s a given.
Overall, I really like how the Wolves match up in this one. I think their size will give the Warriors trouble, similar to how Houston did. However, the biggest difference is that Minnesota can actually shoot, which was Houston’s Achilles heel throughout the series. With the Wolves being one of the best at hitting from beyond the arc this year, I don’t see a great path for the Warriors to stop the perimeter shooters while giving up size to Gobert, Reid, Randle, and McDaniels on the inside. Unless the Warriors can come out moving the ball well and find the hot hand, I think the Wolves have the stronger roster.
Money line: GSW (+215) / MIN (-265)
Total Points: 210 (OVER)
Spread: +6.5 GSW (-110) / -6.5 MIN (-110)
Edwards was a dominant force, eliminating the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. Facing Golden State now, he’s going to pose a significant challenge for the Warriors defensively. He should find ample room on the perimeter or be able to attack the rim without a true rim protector from Golden State. At this point, 28 looks like a solid bet considering how devastating he’s already been in the postseason.
Coming off his best postseason game of his career, Gobert carried the Timberwolves past the Lakers in Game 7. He was dominant in attacking the basket and collecting rebounds. Considering Golden State is similarly small compared to the Lakers post lineup, he could be a problem for them down low. The Warriors did a solid job of keeping Houston from beating them in the paint, but with Edwards' shooting on the perimeter, they can’t pack the paint, which could give Gobert the opportunity he needs. Especially with the over at only 11 points, Gobert should be able to do that.
Hield just dropped 9 threes in an elimination game. Now, getting +140 odds on 3 made threes in game one against the Wolves feels solid. He’s been streaky during the postseason, but out of the seven games the Warriors played against Houston, Hield had 3 with three made threes. His playing time will be the key factor. If he gets around 30 minutes tonight, he has a great shot at hitting this line. In all three of those Houston games when he had 3+ threes, he played nearly 30 minutes, while in the games he went under, he was closer to 15. So if Kerr trusts him to spread the floor and score against another larger team like the Wolves, he’ll have a great shot at getting there!
While the Warriors may be short on big men, I still believe Draymond might struggle to hit his rebound line. In the series against Houston, he managed to go over this mark only twice. Since this is just the second time he’s faced the Wolves and his first time playing alongside Jimmy against them, I think his main focus will be on defense, which might limit his ability to secure rebounds.