We’re moving on to the second round of the NBA Playoffs! The Celtics just wrapped up their series with Orlando, and the Knicks fought hard to finish off a challenging matchup against Detroit. Now, we’re all set for one of the most thrilling series yet, where the Knicks will face the reigning champion Boston Celtics.
None
None
Here we are, game one, round two of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. With Boston nearly sweeping Orlando in round one, finishing 4-1 in the series, they’ve enjoyed a little more time off than New York, which went to game six against Detroit. Neither of these series was necessarily easy either. The Magic had one of the best defenses in the league, with Paolo and Franz fighting to keep Orlando in it. However, the Celtics rarely broke too much of a sweat in that series with their vastly superior offense. The Knicks, on the other hand, weren’t able to take the series as conveniently. Cade Cunningham kept almost every game close, and the size of Detroit created issues for New York at times. The Knicks only managed to win one game by more than four points, with the rest of the series being settled by three points or fewer. It was a stunningly close series for a team that considers itself closer to Boston than Detroit in contender status.
Now we start off in Boston tonight. With the Celtics sweeping the Knicks in the regular season, there is little optimism surrounding New York in this series. Especially with the lack of changes made, this is basically the same team that played Boston all year and lost. The Knicks only kept one game in single digits during the regular season, which they managed to take to OT, eventually losing by two. Hopefully, we can see more of that team tonight, but considering how potent this Boston offense can be, it’s going to take everything going right for the Knicks to secure a win tonight.
Boston has excelled at home this season, boasting an impressive 28-13 record in the regular season. With most of the core group being the same players from last season's championship roster. One important lesson we learned about this team last year is their strong reliance on shooting. We’ve noticed Boston struggle in several games when their shots aren’t sinking. Although it doesn’t happen often, when the players miss from the perimeter, Boston has limited alternatives to boost their offense.
This game, like all the rest of this series, is going to be all about offense. For the Knicks to have a chance in this one, they’ll need a couple of things to happen. The first is Towns; he’ll need to be a massive force on offense in this series. He might be the player the Celtics are least equipped to deal with. If he’s able to get consistent points in the paint through contact, the Knicks will at least be a threat. The second thing they need to do is win the rebounding battle. They have to chase down all the long rebounds that come with playing Boston. They take so many threes that it’s going to be up to Hart, OG, and Bridges to beat Boston to the boards.
For Boston, though, they just need to shoot well. The Knicks don’t have enough firepower to keep up if this offense is hitting consistently from deep. They’ve been doing it all year, so I’m not exactly too worried, but that truly is the most important thing they can do in the game tonight.
Overall, this game already feels a bit one-sided. We haven’t seen much competitive basketball between these teams all year, and now that we’re in the playoffs, I don’t expect that to change much. I expect to see another blowout tonight as Boston takes game one of round two.
Money line: NYK (+300) / BOS (-380)
Total Points: 213
Spread: +9 NYK (-110) / -9 BOS (-110)
Boston has fared extremely well against the Knicks all season. With both sides entering this game fairly healthy, Boston simply has the better roster. The combination of Tatum and Brown has been effective, with Porzingis adding that x-factor on defense and offense. It’s difficult to see how the Knicks will overcome the Celtics tonight in Boston after what we’ve already witnessed this season.
Looking back on the regular season, Boston dominated the Knicks in every one of those games. Most of them weren’t even close, with only one game decided by single digits. However, all of them exceeded the 213 line. Even accounting for the standard playoff slowdown, I still don’t see this game ending below 213, considering that the regular season games never finished below 230.
Boston has convincingly defeated New York all season. They have only had one game finish within 9 points, with several being complete blowouts. I believe the Knicks will have a chance to win a few games in this series, but game one in Boston likely isn’t one of them. I expect Boston to take care of business unless their shooting falls off a cliff tonight.
Being the first game of the series and Brunson’s reliance on free throws, I’m a little skeptical about him tonight. We saw him fall below this line in three of the four games against Boston in the regular season, and now with the whistles getting tighter and the pace slowing down, I think 28 might be a little too high. This feels like a safe line to grab.
Tatum did excellent against the Knicks all year. He was able to drop buckets on them almost every game, scoring over 30 points in three of the four. Even in the one he missed 30 he still had 25. We’ll see how he does tonight, but he seems like a good bet to lead the Celtics in scoring once again!
Towns has been the rebounding key for the Knicks. He’s been their leading rebounder all year, consistently ranking near the top in the league for rebounds per game. In the regular season, he averaged 12 boards per game against the Celtics. The only threat to this line will likely be Josh Hart, who has been a menace on the boards himself, but I expect him to be too busy trying to help against Boston’s elite perimeter shooting to focus on rebounds tonight.
Porzingis was somewhat limited during the first round of the playoffs. However, against the Knicks, I could see his workload jump up a bit. Even in a limited role against Orlando, he was still devastating defensively. He averaged 2.6 Stocks per game in that series. The 3 Stock line at +130 is looking fairly juicy.