The Nuggets barely squeaked past the Clippers to get here, but now they’re rewarded with a series against the best team in the NBA. OKC ran the West this year, ending with 68 wins and sweeping Memphis in the first round. However, Denver won’t be a cake walk; they split the regular season with OKC 2-2, and going against Jokic is never easy. We’ll see if the Nuggets can find some cracks in the Thunder as we jump into game one of the series tonight.
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OKC powered through Memphis in round one! The first few games were decisive victories, and even though the Grizzlies began to close the gap and seemed closer to a challenge, they couldn’t manage to steal even a single game. With that sweep, OKC has been resting since April 26. Meanwhile, Denver is entering this game with just a day of rest, having beaten the Clippers on the 3rd. After a tough seven-game series, it’s clear that rest will play a significant role in this matchup.
OKC seems to hold the upper hand in this series in just about every category. They have home-court advantage, a well-rested roster, and depth that makes them formidable. This situation might feel daunting for the Nuggets, but they do have Jokic, who has been a powerhouse against the Thunder this season. Interestingly, it’s not just his offensive skills; while he’s had a relatively average shooting performance by his standards, it’s his all-around game that stands out. In both of Denver’s victories over OKC this year, he dominated the boards, presenting a major challenge for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been consistent rebounding team, but they haven’t had one standout player. Hartenstein has been their best rebounding option, yet he’s faced some challenges against Jokic. We’re likely to see a double-big starting lineup with Holmgren and Hartenstein teaming up, which has been their strategy in the playoffs so far, though this series might test that a bit.
OKC has consistently relied on SGA to lead the scoring efforts, usually dropping around 30 points a night. The challenges pop up when the rest of the team isn't able to contribute as much. Fortunately, J-Dub has emerged as a dependable second option, with Chet and Holmgren providing valuable support, but Jokic certainly adds an interesting twist to that dynamic. His size and rebounding skills can limit OKC’s chances for second-chance points, which are crucial for how Chet and Hartenstein can really take advantage of defenses.
Even with their past successes against OKC, this game is going to be a tough challenge for Denver. OKC has shown elite performance on both ends of the court in a way that Denver has demonstrated only in spurts. I think we’ll see some nights of highly competitive basketball throughout this series, but the opener may be a bit of a stretch. The only reason I think Denver might take today’s game is due to a little rust on OKC from having a long break. The Nuggets just came off a thrilling game seven victory, and they might be more engaged compared to OKC. Nevertheless, I’m still leaning towards OKC to take game one at home, although I believe it’ll be closer than the spread suggests.
Money line: DEN (+340) / OKC (-440)
Total Points: 226
Spread: +9.5 DEN (-110) / -9.5 OKC (-110)
With home court advantage and some extra rest, I believe OKC has a great chance to outplay Jokic and the Nuggets. The matchups between these two teams have been solid, but I’m a bit skeptical about Denver's scoring ability keeping up with the talent gap we see on these rosters. While the Nuggets may put up a fight against the Thunder at home, I’m optimistic that OKC will take the first game of round one tonight!
I have some reservations about the scorers on these teams. SGA has been outstanding, but even Jokic has faced challenges in maintaining his scoring consistency against OKC. Throughout the year, we've witnessed the Thunder's defense shine, and they managed to keep Memphis under this total in most of their matchups. Unless Denver finds their rhythm and can shoot a high percentage from beyond the arc, I expect the final score to hover well below this line.
Denver should be able to keep this game competitive. A 10-point spread against Jokic always gives me a bit of concern, and I anticipate Denver will play well after their game seven victory. However, this also means OKC could potentially capitalize on their momentum and maintain a fast pace for the entire game. Still, I think Denver has shown enough against OKC to build a bit of trust going into this matchup. With nearly even odds, this line seems quite reasonable!
If there is one thing about Russ, it’s that he’s never been afraid of the bright lights. Now back in OKC, his old stomping grounds, I expect him to come into this game with some “Fuck You” energy. Considering his impact against the Clippers, I think 10.5 is a tad low. I believe we’ll see Russ get to the line plenty tonight and be the change-of-pace guy the Nuggets will need on the road.
Jokic has been a beast on the boards against OKC. He’s had multiple games against them this year with over 18 boards. Considering he’ll likely be on the court for nearly 40 minutes, I think we could see him dominate. The alternate spread of 14 boards may seem a little risky, but I believe it’s a solid bet with a nice amount of juice.
This is not the series in which Chet will be an effective rebounder. In both games against Denver where Chet and Hartenstein were available, Chet went well below 9 rebounds. Considering we’ll likely see that pair a fair amount tonight to counter Jokic down low, I don’t expect to see Chet securing many rebounds tonight.
Aaron Wiggins may be one of my favorite players on OKC. He’s shown tremendous growth this year and has been an extremely valuable bench player for OKC all season. He even had a few good moments against Memphis in round one. With the line set pathetically low, all Wiggins will need is a little time on the court. Whether that will happen is hard to say, but I think we’ll see him get at least 15 minutes tonight, and if so, 6 points is a very attainable number for him!