Man, who thought we’d be here with the Lakers down 3-1 going into game five? With the series back in LA, though, this will be their last chance to save the series. However, the Timberwolves may just be the better team. We’ll see tonight, though, as the Lakers face a first-round elimination in Crypto Arena.
Rob Dillingham Out
Maxi Kleber Out
Game four was something else. It felt like it could be the turning point of the series, with the Lakers playing a fantastic game. Holding a solid lead in the fourth, the Wolves managed to storm back behind Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid, hitting some massive shots. Ultimately, it came down to a buzzer-beater shot from Austin Reaves that rimmed off, leaving LA with the L.
The Lakers' forward depth has been drastically exposed in this series. Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels have been averaging 42 combined points per game against the Lakers, which doesn’t even account for their critical contributions on defense or the boards. The scoring has been particularly standout, as these two have been key to the team’s success.
LA hasn’t had the same luxury at forward. Rui Hachimura, despite a solid performance in game four, hasn’t been at the same caliber as the Minnesota forwards. With Dorian Finney-Smith also getting a ton of reps at forward, most of the workload has fallen onto LeBron, who has been doing all he can. However, he can’t handle everything on both ends. Even in game four, he was terrific offensively and defensively, but ultimately, it wasn’t enough. More importantly, the forward problem for LA highlights a significant issue with overall depth. They just don’t have any x-factor off the bench, and if the trio of Reaves, LeBron, and Luka struggle, there is no one else to step up. Defensively, the Lakers are especially thin; they basically ran a six-man lineup in game four, and it still wasn’t enough. Which makes me wonder about fatigue starting to set in.
The Lakers are stuck in a tough spot. We all knew this would be a challenging series, but no one expected this from the Wolves. They’ve looked lethal during the playoffs, while LA appears worn out with a roster that’s at least two players short. Overall, the Lakers are playing on borrowed time, and I don’t have high hopes for them tonight.
The Lakers' only hope tonight is to slow the game down aggressively. The Wolves have shown they can keep pace in a physical game, but in the Lakers' one win, we saw sub-100-point finishes for both teams. It helped that the Wolves shot poorly in that game, but part of that is due to them having their fewest shot attempts of the series. They only had 79 attempts compared to nearly 90 in the other games. If LA can recreate that scenario, Luka and LeBron should be able to win the efficiency battle or at least the free throw battle. That looks like LA’s best chance for this game, which feels somewhat unrealistic considering how the Wolves have been dominating the pace lately.
I think we’ll see the Wolves take the Lakers out to clinch the series tonight. I don’t know if the Lakers have much left in the tank, and the Wolves smell blood. If the Wolves can maintain their pace and shooting, they shouldn’t have too much trouble ending the series tonight.
Money line: MIN (+190) / LAL (-230)
Total Points: 209
Spread: +5.5 MIN (-110) / -5.5 LAL (-110)
It looks like the series could wraps up tonight! The Lakers have faced some challenges in all four games so far, with their only win coming in game two when the Wolves were shooting just 38% overall and 20% from beyond the arc. Since that game, though, the Wolves have really found their rhythm. If they can come out strong and deliver an average shooting performance against the Lakers, they’ll definitely have a fantastic chance at victory. I have a feeling we might see some wear and tear on the Lakers tonight, which could be tough for them to overcome. If they’re not all firing on all cylinders tonight, it seems likely that the Wolves will take the series on the road!
Three of the four games in this series have already exceeded 209 points! Given the way the Wolves have been shooting, I can definitely see this game soaring past 209 as well. Unless the Lakers find a way to really slow down the pace, or if the refs are determined to keep things slow, I think the chances of going over that 209 mark look absolutely fantastic!
I'm really excited about this spread! Getting 5.5 points on Minnesota feels like such a great deal, especially considering their recent performance. Even if the Lakers manage to pull this one off, I just can’t see them blowing them out. It would take a really poor shooting night from Minnesota to fall short of this line.
This line seems a bit low for McDaniels, especially considering how well he’s played this series. He's been above this line in every game except one, which was due to early foul trouble. That is my only concern for this game. With McDaniels likely defending LeBron tonight, and the Lakers having home court advantage, he might pickup a few quick fouls. However, I’m leaning towards optimism and believe he can avoid foul trouble, making this line look fantastic!
Rui has been somewhat of an afterthought in the Lakers' offense until game four. He scored 23 in that game on solid shooting percentages. However, prior to that game, his next highest scoring performance was 11, along with two other games where he scored under 10 points. I don’t expect Rui to have the same number of shot attempts tonight, which will likely limit his scoring potential significantly.
I like this line at 2.5. Reaves has been hitting his threes at volume for most of this series. He’s only had one game where he hasn’t made at least three threes. He’s also getting the volume he needs to make enough of them. He’s had between 6 and 12 three-point attempts per game in this series. As long as he gets somewhere within that ballpark, he’s a good enough shooter to knock down at least three of them!
Conley may be fading a little in this series, but an away game like this is where he can stand out for the Wolves. We’ve seen his minutes start to drop, but he’s still active enough on the defensive glass to come away with a fair number of boards. In fact, he’s only been under three rebounds once, which was in the last game. I still like the odds though, especially at +105.