What a thriller we have on our hands! Coming off that amazing game four finish with a buzzer-beater that tied the series, game five is shaping up to be the most exciting matchup of the playoffs yet. With both teams neck and neck, we can’t wait to see who steps up and takes the 3-2 lead heading into the final two games!
Michael Porter Jr Probable
Russell Westbrook Questionable
None
Wow, this has been one of the best series so far! The Clippers have been destructive, but somehow the Nuggets keep stealing these close games. This series could have easily ended in a sweep in game four by the Clippers, but instead, we’re here.
The Clippers have been the more impressive group lately. Kawhi Leonard has looked like his old prime self, delivering some elite performances, while the rest of the group, including Harden, has been effective on both ends of the court. This is a well-rounded basketball team with size and skill at every position. With a strong defensive identity, they’ve done a fantastic job making life hard for the Nuggets. They’ve kept them guessing, attacked Murray, and kept the supporting cast around Jokic relatively quiet. Obviously, no one can truly stop Jokic, but they’ve limited the rest of the team; it’s basically been the Jokic show pulling the Nuggets through these games.
The Nuggets are far from out of this, though. They’ve been trending upwards throughout the series. After stealing game one, it looked like they might get smashed for the rest of the series, but they had other plans in game four. Now that the series is tied, they only need to hold out for two more games to advance, which may be to their advantage. As great as the Clippers have been, they are much older, and with this series grinding on, we might see some fatigue start to show.
For the Nuggets to win this one, they need to focus on getting the role players involved. Murray has been the second-best offensive player for the Nuggets in the series, but they desperately need MPJ to have another night like he did on Saturday. Just that mild boost in productivity made a massive impact in keeping the game close. Pair that with Braum having a larger influence in the last game, and this group is looking feisty. If they can give Jokic some breathing room, help take the scoring burden off him, and keep the Clippers moving on defense, they’ll have a great shot at taking this game at home.
The Clippers, on the other hand, need to focus on maintaining their scoring pressure. They’ve had some excellent shooting nights throughout the series, but their free-throw attempts have been even more impactful. They’ve forced their way to the line all series, and it’s made a difference in these close games. If they can keep the floor spread by hitting their threes and allow Leonard or Harden to attack the defense, the Clippers will be in excellent shape. They’ve been successful at it so far, so it shouldn’t be too challenging to reach that level again.
Ultimately, this game is going to be settled in the margins. It’s been so tight all series; the small details, like free throw attempts, variance in three-point shooting, or who gets the last possession, are crucial. I expect this game to end with a razor-thin finish, but tonight I’m leaning towards the Clippers. The Clippers have been the dominant group. The Nuggets have sneaked those two wins out at the last second, whereas the Clippers have won far more quarters in this series. If the Clippers can keep their scoring up, or if the Nuggets' role players falter, the Clips should be able to take this one.
Money line: LAC (-130) / DEN (+110)
Total Points: 208.5
Spread: -1.5 LAC (-110) / +1.5 DEN (-110)
The Clippers have shown themselves to be the stronger and more well-rounded team so far. At times during this series, they’ve really dominated, while the Nuggets have been impressive in those nail-biting close games. However, we haven’t seen the Nuggets take a significant lead in this series. If the Clippers can focus on slowing down the Nuggets' role players and make a strong effort attacking the paint while converting at the line, they’ll likely come out on top in this matchup!
I have a feeling we might see a boost in scoring tonight! The last game wrapped up with an impressive tally in the 220 range, marking it as the highest-scoring regulation game of the series. It seems like the Nuggets have really fine-tuned their lineup, and on the other side, the Clippers have consistently scored over 100 points in each game. If Denver can give us that little extra push, we could definitely hit this line!
I’d recommend skipping the spread again tonight. It’s pretty tight, and since there’s a bit less risk for similar odds on the money line, I think it's better to place your bet there. However, if you prefer a spread line, getting -110 odds on the Clippers isn’t too bad with just a 1.5 spread.
This might be my favorite prop of the entire game. Gordon has been a key piece to this team's rebounding in every one of these games. He hasn’t had a game under 6 rebounds in all four games. Especially with Westbrook’s health questionable coming into this game, Gordon will likely be the key secondary rebounder right behind Jokic!
As impressive as Zubac has been at rebounding this series, this line feels a point or two too high. Achieving 13 rebounds for the over is going to be a challenge considering he's only hit that total once in the series. With these teams figuring each other out a little more, I think the under looks excellent tonight!
With how well-known Harden is for being an elite scorer, that hasn’t been his best role in this series. He’s been the table setter, which has been terrific, but it’s left his scoring totals a little lacking. Only going over this line in game one when he shot out of his mind ending with 32 points, the rest of this campaign hasn’t been as interesting. Hedging on another down-scoring night looks like the move.
Braun hasn’t been the scoring threat he was during the regular season. He has consistently struggled to get points on the board until game four. With Westbrook unavailable, Braun found some extra minutes and possessions, allowing him to finish with 17 points. While that’s not the most impressive achievement, with Westbrook's status questionable, it could pave the way for another solid scoring night.