We’re gearing up for game four of this exciting series in San Francisco, where the Warriors are leading 2-1! Tonight could really be a game-changer. With the series advantage and the support of their home crowd, the Warriors are in a fantastic spot. On the flip side, Houston has to rally their offense this game before it slips away from them.
Jock Landale Out
Jae’Sean Tate Out
Jimmy Butler Questionable
We saw the Warriors secure a nice win at home in game three, even without Jimmy Butler following a bad fall in game two. Despite his absence, Curry managed to elevate this team and deliver a solid win at home. With the lead in the series, the Warriors could take complete control before heading back to Houston for game five with a victory tonight.
They’ll need to maintain a few key elements, chiefly their ball movement. Kerr has always run a fluid, fast-paced offense, but it’s been particularly effective against this young Houston team. Their ball movement has been extremely adept at finding gaps or missed assignments on offense. If they can continue to generate easy points, they’ll have no trouble edging out this Houston group that continues to struggle to score.
Scoring has been Houston's Achilles heel. They managed to bully their way to a passable offense in the regular season, but now, it feels like they’ve hit a wall. The Warriors have been very effective at preventing Houston from transitioning quickly or dominating them in the paint. It’s been surprising considering Houston's substantial size advantage, but the Warriors' IQ has enabled them to maintain a strong post defense. Houston is going to need to find a solution, but it’s going to be challenging.
Houston’s primary offensive issue remains shooting. They lack reliable perimeter shooters, and most of their scorers are inconsistent. Jalen Green has fluctuated from amazing to terrible, and hasn’t been the scoring leader they’ve needed. Even the veteran VanVleet has struggled to help open up the offense. He’s shooting a dreadful 26% from the field and 20% from three. He’s a significant reason this offense has crumbled. Without either of these players hitting their shots, it puts all the pressure on the interior, allowing the Warriors to stack the paint, which has suffocated Houston’s ability to earn second-chance points on which their offense has thrived all year.
Houston is definitely going to face a challenging night, but my gut tells me they could get it done tonight. They just need a minor boost from their backcourt to close the scoring gap. If they’re able to shoot slightly better from the line, it should be enough to put them over the edge against the Warriors. The wild card will still be Butler, though. If he’s healthy enough to play and performing at nearly 100%, it might be too much for Houston. I’m sticking with my gut, though!
Money line: GSW (-180) / HOU (+150)
Total Points: 202.5
Spread: -4 GSW (-112) / +4 HOU (-108)
I think we will see Houston tie up the series on the road tonight. They’ve had some bad breaks scoring-wise, which has held back the entire team. If they’re able to figure out the scoring, or if VanVleet or Green get hot from three, they’ll have enough offensive pressure to win this game. I expect an extremely physical match where Houston uses all their size and strength to wear down the much older GS. It’s going to get chippy in San Fran tonight; that’s one thing you can count on!
We’ve seen some really low-scoring games in this series, which have all been below this total. Either the Houston defense stops GS or Houston’s offense stops Houston, but either way, shots aren’t going down. However, I think this is the game we see Houston get hot. They’ve been scoring well below their potential all series. If they convince a few shots to fall and the Warriors can ride another hot Curry game, this total should be well within reach!
This is a fairly close spread, but considering how these games have ended, 4 points is right in the range. We should have seen Houston finish within this margin in the last game, but poor free throw shooting held them back. If they can clean up the offense a bit, they should keep it close unless Curry goes crazy again!
As one of the most streaky shooters in the league, Green has struggled to make a consistent impact in this series. He had a forgettable game in game one, with only 7 points, while in game two he led the team to victory with 37 points. However, game three was another stinker, and with the game tonight in the Bay, I doubt we will see a significant bounce back tonight.
Sengun was the bright spot of game one with a 26-point outing. After that, however, he’s been a little more modest on the scoreboard. While still scoring in the teens, he hasn’t been able to get it done inside. The lack of dependable shooters on Houston limits what Sengun can do in the paint. I think we’re going to see him struggle to get points on the board again tonight.
We’ve seen Curry moving the ball well around this GS offense. He contributed 12 assists in game three and 9 in game two, while only earning 3 in game one. The significant change in this line will depend on Butler’s availability tonight. If he’s still out, GS will likely have the ball in Curry’s hands all night. Even if Butler is playing, Curry is more than capable of reaching the 6-assist mark with the ball in his hands slightly less.
This line might be a little risky if Butler is still out tonight, but if he’s back I could see Draymond's rebounding total drop. Especially with Quinten Post earning more minutes to counter Houston’s side. Green has been over 7 rebounds twice in this series though, but going into game 4, I think he’ll have even more competition for every board.