The ups and downs of this series have been nothing short of epic so far, and we’ve only seen two games! With the Lakers heading to Minnesota for game three, this could really be the turning point in the series for either side. Let’s see who can rise to the occasion and snag that 2-1 lead!
Rob Dillingham Out
Maxi Kleber Out
We’re all tied up in Minnesota heading into game three. We saw the Wolves shock the Lakers in game one of the playoffs, shooting the lights out and walking away with the early series lead. However, the Lakers quickly righted the ship and stormed back with some high-caliber defensive adjustments to suffocate the Wolves in game two.
The Wolves need to even out their shooting. They shot an incredible percentage in game one at 51% FG and 50% from three, hitting 21 of their 42 attempts from beyond the arc, which is hard to replicate. However, they fell hard back to earth in game two, only hitting 20%. The variance in three-point shooting makes predicting this game for the Wolves tricky. A big part of why the Wolves dropped so significantly between games one and two was Naz Reid. In game one, he was amazing, hitting threes, playing solid defense off the bench, and generally being a matchup nightmare. In game two, though, he faced some early foul trouble that sent him back to the bench quickly and limited their offensive production. Pair that with a litany of foul calls that slowed down the game’s pace, which benefited the Lakers considerably. For the Wolves to be competitive in this game, they’ll need to keep the pace higher and find better shots. If they can also avoid fouling and sending Luka to the line, it will greatly help in limiting the Lakers' offense. Overall, they have a great shot in this game, but they’ll need to play disciplined.
The Lakers, on the other hand, have a more challenging night ahead. They managed to heavily slow down the game in game two, but the refs contributed to that as well. We saw 46 fouls called in game two, compared to 31 in game one. The Lakers were much more willing to get physical, which significantly contributed to the increase in fouls. Ultimately, I expect the Lakers to employ the same strategy tonight: keep the game physical, force the refs to be involved, and artificially slow down the pace. If they can maintain a slower game pace and play from their half-court set while preventing Minnesota from transitioning quickly, they’ll be in a great position.
Overall, it seems like this game is going to be incredibly close, and it really hinges on how much freedom the refs allow. If they’re calling it tightly from the start, the Wolves will need another outstanding shooting night to secure a win. But since they’re playing on their home court, I believe we’ll see Minnesota play with a lot more freedom and confidence. If they can get out in transition like they did in game one, it’s going to be tough for the Lakers to keep up. I have a feeling Minnesota will come out on top tonight!
Money line: LAL (+124) / MIN (-148)
Total Points: 207.5
Spread: +3 LAL (-108) / -3 MIN (-112)
The Timberwolves dominated the Lakers in game one in fast-break points, scoring 25 compared to the Lakers' 6. However, in game two, the Wolves only had 6. If they can get out and run in transition, capitalizing on their great athletes, they should be able to win the game. Still, the Lakers are dangerous, and they completely took away that advantage in game two. Tonight will depend entirely on the adjustments the Wolves make. I’m confident they can flip the script, though, especially at home.
Last game ended well below even 200 points, but that felt more like an anomaly than a trend. Both of these teams have great scores at multiple positions. Even with the playoff pace slowing down the game and lowering the totals, 207.5 should be an achievable target. Especially if the refs let the guys play, they should be able to increase the pace and scoring a little more tonight.
Even though the spread is very tight, I don’t believe the Wolves will run away with this one. I think LA will keep up with them down the stretch, and we’ll see the game come down to the last shot. I don’t typically bet on these lines when they’re so narrow, but in a low-scoring, physical matchup, I believe the Lakers will be right in this one.
Reid was incredibly impactful in game one, scoring 25 points off the bench to help the Timberwolves take a commanding lead. Unfortunately, game two didn’t go as smoothly for Naz, as he picked up some early fouls that sent him to the bench. But with the Wolves now having home court advantage, I believe we won’t see Naz face the same foul trouble again. After averaging 14 points a game all season, a 12.5 point line looks more than achievable for Naz.
Luka has truly shined in this series as a scorer! He has led the Lakers in both games, but tonight marks their first game outside of LA. With Luka hitting the road, it's a bit uncertain whether he’ll get to the line as often. He’s averaging 10 free-throw attempts in the series, so if those numbers dip even slightly, Luka could find himself right on the edge of this line. While betting on the under seems like the safer option tonight, it’s tough to go against Luka’s scoring abilities!
I find myself a bit puzzled about why the books keep setting Gobert’s rebounding numbers so high. It’s clear from the series that he isn’t the main rebounder for Minnesota. He’s only managed to grab 6 boards in each game, all while clocking in under 30 minutes. Unless they go big longer tonight, which I doubt they do, this should be a relatively safe line.
Edwards has really stepped up as the primary ball handler in both games so far! He’s done a fantastic job of involving his teammates, with 9 assists in game one and 6 in game two. While it looks like Edwards might zero in a bit more on scoring tonight, the line is looking great at 4.5 assists!