This series has been quite one-sided so far, with the Pacers taking the first two games. As the series heads to Milwaukee for the first time, with Bucks already on their backfoot, this is a must win game at home. However, given how impressive the Pacers have been so far, it won’t be an easy task, and the Bucks will need everyone at peak form to take out the Pacers tonight!
Tyler Smith Questionable
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With the Pacers already up two games in the series, the Bucks are in must-win mode. The first game wasn’t even close as the Pacers took control early and never eased off the gas. In game two, the Bucks almost came back to steal it but ultimately fell flat, even with Dame back in the lineup. Tonight will be the real test for the Bucks to see if they can bounce back at home.
The Bucks are in a tough spot. They have top-end talent with Dame and Giannis, but the Pacers are just so deep. The supporting cast in Milwaukee has been lackluster so far, and the starters are not delivering. This is nothing new; the Milwaukee roster has always been a little underpowered, but they’ve pushed through. However, now that they’re outclassed, the cracks are painfully obvious.
For the Bucks to win this game, they’ll need a few things to happen. Mainly, they need another great game from Giannis. He has been amazing this series, but he can’t do it all by himself. Dame is going to need to shake off the cobwebs and find his groove on offense. The Bucks desperately need his scoring, especially since the other starters besides Giannis have been ineffective. Prince, Kuzma, and Lopez have been absent from both games in the box scores. Kuzma didn’t even score a point in game one despite playing over 20 minutes. This group needs to find some spark. The only player they’ve had step up so far was Bobby Portis in the last game, who knocked down a flurry of threes and ended up with 25 points. They’ll need another performance like that to have a chance tonight.
The Pacers, on the other hand, have complete control of this series. They boast solid matchups throughout the roster. The bench, in particular, has been far more effective than Milwaukee's. Defensively, they’ve effectively managed to handle almost everything the Bucks have thrown at them, except for Giannis, as no one has the tools to stop him. However, for the rest of the team, finding high-quality shots has been a challenge.
Overall, the Pacers have the superior team in this series. They’re younger, deeper, and more talented in key positions. The only real variance lies in their shooting ability. Haliburton has excelled as a playmaker and facilitator, but his shooting has been inconsistent. With his offense unreliable, along with some other starters, it’s been up to Siakam to be the consistent force. He’s performed well, boasting a respectable shooting percentage and averaging 24 points per game. With him and a potent bench featuring significant firepower, the Pacers look strong coming into tonight's game.
Even though they’re the underdogs on the road tonight, I think they're going to take a 3-0 lead in the series. The Bucks simply lack the tools to compete beyond brute force with Giannis. While that works well for Giannis individually, it hasn’t proven to be a winning formula so far. Unless Doc makes significant changes and some of these role players hit their shots, the Pacers will outpace them offensively. I just don’t see it coming together for Milwaukee tonight.
Money line: IND (+170) / MIL (-205)
Total Points: 230
Spread: +5.5 IND (-112) / -5.5 MIL (-108)
Even on the road, the Pacers are the better team. They have the superior roster, the better coach, and more depth. Beyond Giannis, the Pacers outclass the Bucks at almost every roster spot. Even Dame, as great as he’s been, has been outplayed by Haliburton. I think the Pacers are going to come into this game hot, demoralize the crowd, and win from the get-go just like they did in the first two games.
This is a very challenging line to call. At 230, it could easily slip either way. The first game was way under 230, but in game two, they crushed it. I think we’ll see a solid amount of scoring out of both sides, though, especially with the Bucks in front of their home crowd. If Giannis and Dame get going, they’ll likely push the score sky-high. And of course the Pacers have the offense to hit this total any day of the week.
I’m not entirely sure how close this game will be, but getting +5.5 on the Pacers is a solid position to be in. Even if they fall short on the road today, it’s likely to be close considering their scoring ability. I like their chances of hitting this one today.
Dame’s first game back wasn’t one to remember. He struggled to find his rhythm on offense, finishing with only 14 points by the end of the game. He appeared out of sync, and with the pressure only increasing as they head to Milwaukee down 2-0, I don’t think we’ll see Lillard light it up tonight.
Portis may have found something last game when he scored 25 points. He shot incredibly well, hitting 6 of his 11 three-pointers. With the Bucks in desperate need of a hot hand, Portis might get his number called again tonight, increasing his normal shot attempts. If he can get a similar level of attempts tonight, he’ll be in a great position to score 15 or more!
Giannis has been fantastic on the boards this series, but 13.5 is kind of a wild place to set this line. He did have 18 in game two, but fell just short with 12 in game one. The big thing for Giannis’ rebounding numbers is his offensive boards. He had 7 last game, which I don’t think is sustainable for him. With such a high line, the under is looking safe tonight.
This line is a little risky, but looking at how Haliburton has played lately, he’s very capable of hitting this line. He’s had 12 assists in both games so far, and with the Pacers on the road, they’ll need Haliburton setting stuff up even more than usual. Especially with Dame back on the court, the backcourt defense shouldn’t be too much of an issue for Haliburton to navigate.