The Timberwolves gave us quite a surprise with an incredible victory over the Lakers in LA during game one! Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid shone, leading the team in scoring, while Luka put up an impressive 37 points for the Lakers. Could this be just a fantastic night for the Wolves, or are the Lakers in for a real challenge?
Rob Dillingham Out
Maxi Kleber Out
The Timberwolves put on an epic performance on night one! They nailed an impressive 50% from three-point range and 51% overall from the field. It felt like they just couldn’t miss, especially with their role players stepping up tremendously. The Lakers struggled to match the Timberwolves' shooting spree and ended up falling behind by over 20 points. What was anticipated to be a competitive matchup now has the potential to become a lopsided affair if the Lakers don’t manage to regroup soon.
The one silver lining for the Lakers tonight is that the Wolves might struggle to keep up those impressive shooting numbers. However, it doesn’t mean it was merely a lucky night for them. Most of the Timberwolves’ three-pointers were wide open, as the defense often found itself confused. Minnesota efficiently lined them up and knocked them down. That’s a major challenge the Lakers will need to tackle tonight! On top of that, they should focus on being more aggressive on offense.
The Lakers need to take the ball to the rim tonight. If they’re able to go find high-efficiency shots inside, or at least earn a few more trips to the line, they’ll slow down Minnesota and cut the scoring gap. Luka was the only one able to do that in game one, but he easily led the team in scoring. Reaves and LeBron need to follow suit, attacking the rim and forcing some of Minnesota’s key defenders into foul trouble.
For Minnesota, maintaining their strong pace is key! Shooting 50% from three might feel like just one off night, but they can still make a big impact against the Lakers from beyond the arc. Their knack for moving the ball swiftly in transition and finding the open shooter was truly impressive—Reid, Edwards, and McDaniels formed a dynamic trio that was tough to handle. If they can shoot even half as well as they did in game one, the Lakers will need to step up their scoring to keep in the game!
Ultimately, the Lakers faced a tough challenge with ball movement in game one. The Wolves nearly doubled their assist totals, while the Lakers leaned heavily on iso ball for most of the game. This strategy can work wonders when you have a scorer like Luka, but the Lakers will need to harness more of their team's potential tonight to create space for their stars. If they can A) close out on Minnesota shooters in transition more effectively, B) attack Minnesota in the paint more frequently, and C) create more opportunities for each other, they’ll definitely be right in this game! Thankfully, these are all areas they can improve on quickly. We’ll have to keep an eye on how they respond.
Given that the lines tonight heavily favor the Lakers, it’s tempting to take a close look at the Minnesota line. With nearly two-to-one odds on the moneyline, especially after witnessing them dominate the Lakers in game one, I'm leaning towards the Wolves. Minnesota's defense was impressive and played a significant role in generating their offense, which led to those impressive threes. Their ability to limit the Lakers' ball movement and win the transition battle by nearly 20 points gives me a lot of confidence that this wasn’t just a fluke. Especially if they shoot like they did in the first game. If you’re looking for a value bet tonight, the Wolves are definitely the way to go!
Money line: MIN (+190) / LAL (-230)
Total Points: 210.5
Spread: +6 MIN (-110) / -6 LAL (-110)
Even though they’re on the road again, I really love what I see from this team! They have the size, defenders, and scoring ability to truly challenge the Lakers all over the court. We saw them easily dominate the Lakers, splashing open look after open look with confidence. Unless the Lakers can make some major changes quickly, the Wolves have a promising outlook for tonight's game, even with the long odds. That said, it’s always tough to win back-to-back road playoff games, especially in LA, so I wouldn’t place a large bet on this one. Still, it’s a solid line!
This line feels a bit off. They did manage to his this line in game one, finishing at 212. However, I believe we’ll see a bit more offensive action from LA, whether it's improved shooting or more trips to the line. If the Wolves can stay consistent and keep hitting their open threes, we'll see this game hit the over easily.
Even if the Wolves aren’t able to get the back-to-back road wins, this game should be close. They outplayed the Lakers on all fronts in the last game, so giving them a +6 spread is looking great. As long as their shooting doesn’t spontaneously disappear, I love this line for the Wolves.
Despite LeBron scoring just 19 points in the first game, I think he'll up his scoring tonight. He only took 2 free throw attempts, even though the Timberwolves committed 21 fouls. Luka was better at drawing fouls, but I'm sure LeBron will be more aggressive tonight in Game 2 in LA. If he can sink some shots and get to the line more regularly, scoring 25 points is well within his range.
Naz took over in game one and dominated the Lakers. He scored 23 points with 12 shot attempts under his belt. If he gets a similar level of attempts in game two, this 12.5 line seems well within reach. Considering he averaged 14 points per game this year and the Lakers don’t have the size to defend him off the bench, this is one of the best lines of the night!
Reaves isn’t exactly known as a lights-out three-point shooter, but he has been serviceable. Especially playing next to LeBron and Luka, Reaves gets some wide-open looks that he can knock down. In game one, he made three three-pointers on eight attempts, which is solid. Even in April and March, he averaged near or above three makes per game from three. With nearly even odds, the over isn’t too bad here.
This is one of the most interesting lines available right now. Gobert performed well in the first game, but we’ve seen him get played off the court in the playoffs. Considering he only stayed on the court for 24 minutes while grabbing a total of 6 rebounds, the odds on the under of 10.5 look like incredible value.