This will be a close game in the East to snag the final playoff spot. With the series split 2-2 between these teams, this may be one of the most evenly matched Play-In games we’ve seen. With Trae taking on Herro, this is going to be a game all about runs as we see who can make the final push for the playoffs!
Clint Capela Out
Trae Young Probable
Kevin Love Out
Nikola Jovic Probable
Pelle Larsson Probable
The Hawks struggled out of the gates in their first Play-In game against the Magic. Falling behind early, they managed to bring it back to within four points, but Orlando ultimately put them away in the fourth. It was a weird game for Atlanta; they weren’t hitting their shots, shooting 19% from the three-point line. Trae wasn’t able to move the ball, and Orlando basically told Trae to beat them. The strategy ultimately worked because Trae shot poorly and was only able to make up for it at the line. Considering the Magic’s stars didn’t even have good games, and Atlanta primarily lost to the Magic bench, this is concerning coming into the game against the Heat.
Miami was able to destroy the Bulls on the road. We saw one of the best games of the season from Herro, dropping nearly 40 points on the Bulls. The offense wasn’t the story of that game, though; it was the Miami defense that overwhelmed the Bulls at home. The combination of Bam, Ware, and Wiggins provided enough size to affect the Bulls' scorers all over the court. Considering the late-season run the Bulls were on, it’s quite impressive that the Heat were able to beat them by nearly 20 at home.
However, as hard as it may be, I’m trying not to overreact to these games. The Hawks aren’t likely to shoot under 20% from three again, and if they’re hitting closer to their average, this should be a tough game for Miami. They lost both of their games against the Hawks in Atlanta, so playing on the road may be an issue.
It’s still challenging to discount the Heat in the postseason, though. They’ve routinely beaten better teams and made some stunning runs under Erik Spoelstra. Coaching will likely be the key factor in the game, with the Heat having a massive advantage in that department. If the Heat can follow Orlando’s strategy and make Trae be the hero to beat them, this could turn into an interesting game. Trae hasn’t been the guy to take over and win a game on offense. As a distributor and secondary scorer, Trae is wildly effective, but once you put him on an island, the shooting percentage starts to become a real issue. Trae’s only consistent form of scoring lately has been getting to the line, which will probably be his strategy again tonight.
The whole game hinges on the shooting of the role players on Atlanta. If they’re knocking down shots and taking pressure off of Trae, then Atlanta could overwhelm the Heat like they did in the regular season, but I’m doubtful they’ll pull it off. With how young the roster is and their inexperience in games like this, I think Miami is going to work them.
Miami just has the better talent, with a better coaching staff behind them. They will need Herro to do a bulk of the scoring, as usual, and with Dyson Daniels on him, that won’t be easy, but I think Miami will work it out. Even though this one will be close, Miami should steal this one from Atlanta.
Money line: MIA (-115) / ATL (-105)
Total Points: 221
Spread: -1 MIA (-110) / +1 ATL (-110)
In such a close matchup, I’m defaulting to the better coach. Spoelstra should be able to devise a strategy to take advantage of the youth on Atlanta. The key for Miami to win tonight will be the offense, though. They’ll have to find it from multiple sources; they can’t just let Herro lead the way again, not with Dyson Daniels on the other side. However, I just don’t think Atlanta has the chops to take this game, especially after how they looked against Orlando.
One of these two sides will have issues scoring tonight. We saw Atlanta fall apart against the Magic the other night, and Miami hasn’t exactly been a big scorer this year either. If one of these teams is having an off shooting night, I doubt we’ll see a blowout that will push the total over 221.
With such a close spread, I’d stick with the moneyline. If you’re looking to tease it or include it in a parlay, the Miami line is the one I’d choose.
Even though Herro was scorching hot against the Bulls, Dyson Daniels has the ability to pull guys back to earth. Herro will still be a strong scorer for Miami, but I think he’s going to be locked up by Daniels for most of the game, which will probably make it a challenge to hit the 27-point over.
Mitchell has stepped up his scoring for the Heat lately. With his defensive abilities on the other side of the ball, Mitchell got a ton of run against the Bulls. In 33 minutes, Mitchell managed to score 15 points, shooting a perfect 5-5. With Herro likely locked up by Daniels, Mitchell should see a fair amount of time with the ball, which is great for this line.
Daniels has been a crucial secondary rebounder for the Hawks. With Okongwu contending against Bam and Ware in the post, Daniels will need to step up to secure some extra boards. He’s been performing well lately, grabbing 12 rebounds against Orlando. Additionally, he’s had over 8 rebounds in two of the other three games against Miami, making this line look solid again tonight.
The biggest factor in this line, though, won’t be passing or Trae’s time of possession; it will be the ref's whistle. Trae has been forcing his way to the line, which is one of the best things for his turnover numbers. With this game in Atlanta, the Hawks may be on the more favorable end of the whistle, which could help Trae keep his turnover numbers down again.