Dallas is on the rise while the Grizzlies fall in Golden State. It’s all or nothing, folks, as the winner of tonight's game will go on to play OKC in the first round of the playoffs. With the entire postseason on the line, this is one of the most high-stakes games of the season!
Ja Morant Questionable
Zyon Pullin Out
Jaylen Wells Out
Brandon Williams Probable
Anthony Davis Probable
With the Mavericks dominating the Kings in their first Play-In game, they look dangerous. Anthony Davis was a monster that game, controlling both ends of the court while Klay looked like his old self. The real question is whether this is a sustainable level of play or just a flash in the pan.
Memphis has far fewer questions surrounding them. They managed to keep it tight until the end, where Curry took over to ice the game. The Griz still put up a solid showing with Ja and Bane stepping up. Ja will be the big question coming into this matchup, though. He turned his ankle pretty badly against the Warriors, and despite staying on the court, he seemed to be in a fair amount of pain. Considering he did play through it and now has to play another game two days later is concerning.
Overall, these teams match up pretty well. The Grizzlies should have the advantage tonight. They have been very good at home, going 26-15 during the regular season. They have the personnel to frustrate the Mavericks, too. However, the youth of the Grizzlies is a bit worrying. While the Grizz may have the material advantage this game, Dallas should have the mental edge.
Dallas is full of veteran talent like AD, Dinwiddie, and Thompson, along with guys like Washington and Gafford, who were part of that finals run last year. Memphis, on the other hand, has far less experience in these big games. Bane, Ja, and JJJ have only made the playoffs a couple of times, only getting past the first round once when they had a much more veteran roster around them. Even though they’ve been the better team this year, I’m having a hard time believing in the Grizzlies.
Of course, they did just stand toe-to-toe with the Warriors, but a large part of that was due to their size. Zach Edey and Sandi Aldama were big in that game, collecting rebounds and putting pressure on the rim. Memphis won’t have that advantage tonight going against AD and a much more well-rounded frontcourt. Ultimately, this game is going to come down to how well Memphis can defend AD. He didn’t even have a stellar game against the Kings but still managed to get 27 points and 9 rebounds. Looking back at what AD did to the Grizzlies while he was still on the Lakers is worrying for Memphis. AD averaged over 30 points, dropping 40 points and 16 rebounds in one game back in December. A lot has happened since then, but still, it’s concerning for Memphis.
The bright spot of hope for Memphis tonight will be the progression of Edey. He’s become a much more capable NBA player with a solid basketball IQ on both ends of the court. If he’s able to utilize his size against AD effectively, he may be able to slow him down.
However, I’ve got to go with my gut on this one. The combination of a much more experienced team and AD makes me think Dallas can come away with this one. It won’t be easy, but when the lights get bright, betting on experience is normally the way to go.
Money line: DAL (+220) / MEM (-270)
Total Points: 221
Spread: +6 DAL (-108) / -6 MEM (-112)
It’s hard to go against the book when Memphis is such a heavy favorite, but these playoff games are different. Considering Ja is questionable and the amount of experience Dallas has in games like this, I trust them. It’s going to take them knocking down their threes and Davis sealing off the paint, but we’ve seen them do it before.
Memphis has put up some massive score totals over the last few weeks. Their offense can catch fire at a moment's notice, but they’ve also allowed some huge scores on the other end. Considering Dallas has a solid number of scores as well, the 221 mark seems a little low. We could easily see both of these teams in the 120-point range if shots are falling on both ends. The over is the move tonight.
Again, sticking with Dallas is the move tonight. The spread sitting at six points seems like a wide enough margin to jump on this line. We’ve seen Dallas keep it close in most of their games with Davis, especially with him playing about as close to 100% as we’ve seen in Dallas. If Ja isn’t at full strength for Memphis, the game has a great chance of finishing within this spread.
Davis will be impactful in this game, but with the line set at 27.5 points, that seems a bit high. The size Memphis has been using down low with JJJ and Edey will be a challenge for AD to crack. Considering he only managed to score 27 points on 23 shots in their last game, it doesn’t seem like he’ll have that same level of shot volume tonight. If the shot volume declines and he has to battle against a 7’4 center, the under looks promising for Davis.
Bane has been the main driver of the Memphis offense. His three-point shot looks excellent, and he’s hitting everything. With Ja questionable, Bane is going to see a lot of shots. He’s surpassed this line in his last three games too, grabbing 30 points against the Warriors. Facing another weaker defensive backcourt, this line is right in Bane’s wheelhouse.
Edey has been a monster on the boards. I didn’t think he would get this much run in must-win games, but against the Warriors, he was critical. His rebounding has been key for Memphis. His last game against the Warriors marked the sixth time in the last seven games that he’s had 13 or more rebounds. Anthony Davis, Gafford, and Lively are all tough customers down low, but come on, the man is a beast at 7’4 "; he should hit this line as long as he avoids getting into foul trouble.
Even though Ja is questionable, there is a solid chance he’ll play tonight. After suffering a late-game ankle sprain against the Warriors, Ja was doing everything he could to stay on the court. However, he didn’t look great. Considering he has 4+ turnovers in four of the last six games, this line looks solid.