This game promises to be excellent, featuring everything you'd want in a Play-In matchup. Boasting tons of talent on both sides, rivalry, and the stakes of the postseason, it truly has it all. As Memphis heads west to face the Warriors in San Francisco, it's set to be a thrilling showdown for 7th place in the Western Conference!
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Zyon Pullin Out
Jaylen Wells Out
Brandon Clarke Out
This will be one of the most exciting Play-In games. The Warriors narrowly secured the 7th seed, setting up a matchup with Memphis. While Memphis hasn’t been exceptional this year, they’ve shown flashes of brilliance lately, especially with Ja leading the charge. Given the already tense rivalry between these two teams, emotions will run high, as neither squad wants to drop to the 8th seed in the West and be forced to play another game.
The Warriors hold the edge tonight with home court, experience, and better health. However, that doesn't mean Memphis lacks a shot. They’ve been competitive throughout the season, even with Ja sidelined. With him back and playing like his former self, this team is capable of heating up in a hurry.
Golden State did take care of Memphis several times this season, winning three out of their four games, with two games coming before GS even had Butler. Adding Jimmy into the mix has given this roster a level of competency that’s hard to match. Green, Curry, and Butler make up one of the highest IQ trios around which will be challenging for this young Memphis squad to take on.
For Memphis to have a shot in this game, we’ll have to see them coming out strong and physical. If they’re able to burst through screens and win the rebounding battle, they should manage to keep it close. However, it’s nearly impossible to do anything if Curry gets hot like he did in their last matchup, scoring 52 points. If that happens, this game is going to be over fast, but we’ve seen much more modest performances out of him in the other games they've played.
Memphis needs to get the best out of Ja, though. With the way he has been scoring, paired with the two-way abilities of JJJ, they’re going to be a challenge group for GS to slow down.
The Warrior’s most significant weakness in this game is the paint. They’ve had solid paint defense all year with Green, and adding in Butler has only helped, but they lack size. With the possibility of 6’10 JJJ, 7’4 Zach Edey, and 7’ Santi Aldama, Memphis could dominate the interior if allowed. For that to happen, though, we’ll need to see the shooters on Memphis keep the defense from collapsing by hitting some threes. If Bane and Kennard can keep the Warriors honest, the offense should be able to challenge Golden State.
However, the Warriors just seem like too tough a challenge for Memphis. They’ve been able to dominate Memphis all year, and with so much on the line, I doubt the Warriors’ stars lay an egg tonight. Expect Curry to put a ton of pressure on the perimeter while Butler works the inside and earns trips to the line. If any of the other role players like Podz or Moodey are hitting their shots, this offense will be hard to stop. Of course, Memphis has the ability to get hot themselves, which they’ll need. I just trust this veteran group far more than Memphis to get things done!
Money line: MEM (+245) / GSW (-305)
Total Points: 228
Spread: +7 MEM (-112) / -7 GWS (-108)
This is going to be a tough game for Memphis. They’re coming in against one of the most experienced groups of guys in the league on the road. Even though we’ve seen a ton of positives out of Ja and JJJ recently, Steph, Green, and Butler as just too much in a playoff setting. Even with the odds at over -300, the Warriors are the more reliable pick tonight.
The last time we saw these two play each other, there was an eruption of points, with the final score totaling over 250 points. Even though we do see scoring slow down in the playoffs, and that last game had Curry score 52, the 229 mark should be doable to hit the over. Both sides have loads of high-volume scores, and all it will take is one player getting hot to push these scores up.
Even though the line is heavily favoring GS tonight, I think the Grizzlies hold it closer than most expect. They have the talent behind their stars, and this bench has had moments of greatness, too. I don’t think Memphis will take this game, but they’ll put enough pressure on GS to make them sweat a little at least.
These are the games where we see Curry excel. He has been absolutely devastating in high-stakes games in the past, and against Memphis, he has already proven his ability to dominate them. Scoring 52 points in their last matchup, if Curry gets hot from three, reaching 29 points will be well within reach. This line looks excellent.
Bane has been quite consistent from deep lately. He has made three or more three-pointers in six of his last eight games. With his shooting absolutely crucial against the Warriors, he needs to be on target. The good thing for Bane is that he will likely face a weaker defensive assignment, considering Green and Butler will be guarding JJJ and Ja. So if he can find space and maintain the same volume of shots he has been taking, this line looks fantastic!
I'm hedging on the Warriors staying small tonight, and forcing Memphis to follow suit. Edey has performed well against the Warriors in the past, but if they spread the floor and pick up the pace, it could be challenging for Edey to keep up. If that happens and we see Edey’s minutes fall tonight, the 11-rebound mark feels too high to be confident about.
As the secondary ball handler for GS, Jimmy has been moving the ball well and racking up assists. However, tonight will likely be a night they need scoring out of Jimmy. With this ability to get into the paint and get to the line, I don’t expect Jimmy to be passing out of much. In his last game against Memphis, he did exactly this, only getting 4 assists and 12 free throw attempts.