Today marks the start of the post-season with the Hawks facing the Magic in Orlando for the opening game of the NBA Play-In Tournament. While a loss tonight doesn't eliminate either side, each only needs to secure one victory from their next two games. Still, no one wants to end up in a winner-takes-all scenario like the second round of the Play-In Tournament, making tonight's win essential!
Clint Capela Out
Trae Young Probable
Larry Lance Jr Out
Jalen Johnson Out
Jalen Suggs Out
Moritz Wagner Out
This is looking like one of the best matchups of the Play-In Tournament- it’s truly going to be a battle! The best part is that we’ve had the opportunity to see these teams face off twice just last week. Orlando took the first game, but then Atlanta bounced back to win the second, even with many of their starters taking a rest. It's amazing how evenly matched they are, as the season series ended up tied, 2-2, with lots of close games along the way. We might witness two of the most evenly matched teams going head-to-head in the Play-In!
For Atlanta’s final season record of 40-42, they’ve been surprisingly strong on the road this year, which will be important heading to Orlando. With a 19-22 record away this year, Atlanta is no joke while traveling, but will they have the firepower to break through the Magic’s elite defense?
The Magic have been a stalwart defense all season, with size all over this roster. They managed to have the second-best defensive rating of the season, only behind OKC. That’s even with a big stretch of the season losing Paolo and Wagner. With Atlanta’s defense paling in comparison, the offense is where they can get ahead of Orlando in this matchup.
The Magic have struggled all season with scoring. Wagner and Banchero have been solid enough, both averaging nearly 25 points a game, but beyond those two, scoring is hard to find. Out of their 82 games, there were only 22 games where Paolo and Franz weren’t the leading scorer on the team, that’s including a 10+ game stretch neither were available as well. It’s clear how you can beat Orlando, and it’s by limiting those two, and forcing anyone else on the Magic roster to beat you. However, slowing either of those guys down is challenging; luckily for Atlanta, they have one of the best in the business at it, Dyson Daniels.
Daniels has been the defensive story of the year. He has made the most of his first year in Atlanta, averaging 3 steals per game! As one of the most proficient defensive players this season, he should be an incredible weapon against Franz in this matchup. Paolo presents a different challenge. With Johnson sidelined, Atlanta's frontcourt may struggle. With Okongwu locking down the interior, either Risacher or Mouhamed Gueye will need to take on Paolo. In the last game he played against Atlanta, Paolo scored 33 points on solid shooting splits. This entire game will likely hinge on how effectively he can exploit the Hawks.
The keys to the game are fairly clear, though. Atlanta needs to utilize its stronger offense to outpace Orlando’s scoring ability. While Orlando will need to attack Trae Young on defense and disrupt his playmaking skills that have kept the Atlanta offense potent. We’ve seen Trae struggle to score but dominate in moving the ball to open scorers, averaging 11.6 assists per game. If Orlando can get in his passing lanes, and force the ball out of his hands early in possessions Atlanta’s offensive will collapse.
Overall, Orlando should be able to win this game. Paolo is the best player in this matchup, and Atlanta doesn’t have much to counter him defensively. Of course, we’ve seen Paolo struggle at times, so if his three-pointers aren’t landing, this game will be extremely close. However, looking back at previous matchups, Orlando has been the stronger team, making them the best bet to win tonight.
Money line: ATL (+180) / ORL (-218)
Total Points: 219
Spread: +5.5 ATL (-115) / -5.5 ORL (-105)
Orlando has been strong against Atlanta this year. Paolo is the big problem for the Hawks. He’s been destructive on offense in every game he’s played against them. With the Hawks' offense being a bit hit or miss, betting on the much more consistent Orlando defense is the move. There is a chance Trae and the rest of the team are hitting, but Orlando is the safe pick in this matchup for a reason.
We’ve seen Orlando be devastating to point totals this year, both because they can’t score and because other teams struggle too. They’ve had multiple games in which neither team is able to hit 100 points. The under looks promising, considering we’ll likely see an even higher intensity than usual. So expect the Magic to be a brick wall on defense.
We’ve seen every game between Atlanta and Orlando end closely this year. Most have finished outside the 5.5-point margin, but Atlanta seems capable of keeping it competitive. I also doubt that Orlando will be able to run up the score on them. Atlanta should be able to keep this game close until the end!
Paolo has been nothing but excellent going against the Hawks. He has averaged 33 points a game while playing against them this year; he’s an unstoppable force. With the line only set a 29.5 points, the over is looking excellent considering their home court advantage tonight. This is one of the best lines of the night.
Okongwu dominated inside against the Magic the last time they played. He scored an impressive 30 points and grabbed 14 rebounds; he was on fire. With his over/under line set at just 14.5 points, the alternative points total was calling my name. Considering the increase in scoring we’ve seen from Okongwu late this year and the fact he may be out there for 40 minutes, this line is tempting at two to one odds.
This line is going to be razor close, but the under looks decent. We’ve seen WCJ have some great rebounding games, but he hasn’t shown the consistency to feel confident about the over. In March, he only had 9 or more rebounds in five of the fifteen games he played. With the stakes being even higher, I expect Franz and Paolo to grab a few more rebounds than usual, leaving WCJ well below this line.
Every time I see this line, I take it. Trae has been incredibly consistent with his assist numbers late in the season. The books continue to tempt me to take him, and he consistently delivers on the over. He has hit this line 13 times in the last 20 games during April and March. Even with this being a Play-In game on the road, I trust Trae to get his assists. Getting plus money on it is just the icing on the cake!