This is one of the most impactful games of the night. This game will likely determine who is stuck in the play-in and who secures the 6th seed in the West. Following a tough loss to the Timberwolves last night, the Grizzlies are right back on the road to Denver. With the postseason on the line, both teams will likely throw everything they have at each other tonight. This is the game to watch this Friday!
Zyon Pullin Out
Jaylen Wells Out
Jamal Murray Doubtful
This will be one of the most impactful games of the night. The Grizzlies are in the play-in at 7th in the West, while the Nuggets are just above them in 4th place by only a single game. If Memphis wins tonight, they’ll tie the record between the two and claim the tie-breaker, which could send the Nuggets all the way to 7th.
Memphis has been inconsistent all year, but they’ve recently been playing some of their best basketball. Losing to Minnesota last night was tough, but with the 6th to 8th positions tied in the standings, there is still a chance to avoid the play-in. Even though they lost last night, the team performed well. We saw all three star players have fantastic scoring nights, especially Ja Morant, who was lethal in that game, attacking downhill and getting to the free-throw line. He’ll need to replicate that performance tonight against the Nuggets. We’ll see what he has left in the tank, though, as playing in Denver is never easy due to the altitude adjustment, especially on the second night of a back-to-back. However, Memphis is a young team and should be able to bounce back and challenge the Nuggets.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, are just happy to have stopped this late-season free fall with a win over the Kings on Wednesday. They had lost four in a row and seemed almost certain to lose their home-court playoff spot. However, a solid game from Christian Braun and Jokic was enough to get them over the hump in Sacramento.
Looking forward to tonight’s matchup, Memphis faces an uphill battle. The scheduling gods did them no favors with this back-to-back, which significantly impacts the playoff standings. However, they are by no means out of this one. They actually match up fairly well with Denver, which could keep this game closer than the odds suggest.
Memphis’ key advantage will be Morant. He’s been destructive for the past two weeks, and with Denver’s limited backcourt defense, he should be able to find some holes. Especially with how JJJ and Bane have played off him, their offense is finally aligning. All they really need is a repeat performance from last night offensively, and they should be good. Defensively, though, they’ll need to step it up. They gave up 142 points to Minnesota at home. However, that was against Edwards having one of his best shooting nights of the year. With Murray out for Denver tonight, the backcourt for Denver is much less intimidating compared to Minnesota. Jokic will be the challenge tonight, though. He missed the first two games between these two, so it’s a complete mystery how well Memphis will perform against him. They have the size in Edey and JJJ to make life difficult for him, but he’s still Jokic; the best they can do is slow him down. Ultimately, Memphis has to win this game with their offense, and they’re more than capable of it.
However, Denver is just too daunting to feel confident in Memphis. Jokic, Braun, and Gordon have been a well-oiled machine lately. The trio plays excellently off each other, and if Porter Jr. is hitting his threes, this offense is unstoppable. Defense is where things can get a little tricky. Gordon is their only plus defender; Jokic isn’t bad, but he’s not an elite rim protector. What Denver does have on defense, though, is size to throw at Ja. With the offense flowing through Ja this much, shutting him down is critical tonight for Denver. Between Gordon, Braun, and Pickett, they should have enough switchability and size to make life difficult for him.
Ultimately, this game will likely come down to the schedule. Memphis just played a grueling game last night and then hopped on a plane from near sea level to Denver, which is a mile higher in elevation. The combination of altitude, a lack of time to adjust, and fatigue makes it hard to have confidence in Memphis. With Ja, Bane, and JJJ all playing for over 36 minutes last night, the turnaround is simply too challenging, which is why I have to pick Denver tonight.
Money line: MEM (+215) / DEN (-265)
Total Points: 244.5
Spread: +6.5 MEM (-108) / -6.5 DEN (-265)
Ja continues to be unstoppable late in the season. He had another 36-point game against the Timberwolves last night. He’s averaging 32.5 points in April, after averaging 29.5 in March. With the line set at 26.5, there is some risk betting on the over on the second night of a back-to-back, but I believe in Ja. With so much importance on this game, he’ll show up.
It’s not often that you see the points bet set so high. As great as Jokic is offensively, betting the under on 32.5 points looks appealing. Since this is the first time we’re seeing Jokic play against Memphis this year, we're flying blind. However, considering the size Memphis has down low with JJJ and Edey, betting the under feels safe, even though going against Jokic never feels good.
Bane has been on a great run here to close out the season. We’ve seen some excellent shooting nights out of him, and his shot volume looks perfect for a line like this. Even though there isn’t a ton of juice on the line, Bane has been hitting his threes consistently, and going against Denver, he’ll need to.
With the shakeup in the Nuggets organization, we’ve seen Westbrook lose most of his minutes, while Pickett appears to be the main benefactor. Especially with Jamal Murray out tonight, we might see another 30+ minute night from Pickett. If he get the time, and gets the ball in his hands a decent amount tonight, we should see 5+ assists easy.