The long-awaited game is finally here. The Mavericks are hosting the Lakers for the first time since the Luka Doncic trade. Even though this game is taking place at the tail end of the season, a win tonight still matters to both teams. The Mavericks are looking to secure homecourt advantage for the play-in, while the Lakers need tonight’s game to solidify their homecourt advantage in the playoffs. With so much on the line for both teams, this will be a must watch game!
Dante Exum Questionable
Jaden Hardy Out
Anthony Davis Probable
Kyrie Irving
Bronny James Questionable
Rui Hachimura Questionable
Maxi Kleber Out
This is going to be a fantastic game. We get to see Luka back in Dallas for the first time since the stunning trade took place. At the same time, we’ll get to see AD playing against the Lakers for the first time since the trade. With the reunion on track, this game should have plenty of stakes for both sides to keep it interesting.
The Mavericks have struggled over their final games this season, going 5-5 in their last ten. They’re entering this game after a back-to-back affair with the Clippers in LA, where they lost both games. Now facing the other LA team in Dallas, they’ll need a win tonight if they hope to move into the 9th spot in the West. They're currently sitting just one game behind Sacramento, winning tonight could provide a massive boost in securing homecourt advantage for the first play-in game. However, that won't be easy.
The Lakers have been on a slightly better run than the Mavs, winning 6 of their last 10. They’ve fallen to some tough competition like the Warriors and the Thunder. However, they’ve also been beating some of the best teams in the West with a win over OKC and Houston. Currently sitting at 3rd in the West, tonight could be the last win they need to clinch their homecourt advantage in the playoffs. With the Clippers, Nuggets, Warriors, and Grizzlies all only one game behind them, tonight will be critical to avoid a free fall all the way to 7th.
Looking at the matchup between these two teams, the Lakers will hold a slight advantage. The trio of Luka, LeBron, and Reaves has been among the best offensive combinations in the league. Paired with a handful of strong defenders like DFS, Vanderbilt, and Gabe Vincent backing them up, the Lakers will pose a challenge for the Mavericks. However, the Mavericks have AD, which could turn into a massive issue for the Lakers.
For the Mavericks to have a chance in this game, they’ll need AD to dominate the Lakers on both ends of the court. He has to attack the rim and prevent them from going small. If he can make LA keep Hayes on the floor, it will disrupt some of their best lineups from taking the court. It’s still a tall order for this Mavericks team, which is still far from full strength, but they have a chance. They'll just need the role players around AD to get hot.
Even though my brain is telling me to pick LA in this one, my gut is saying go with the Mavs. There is something about their size with AD and Lively that LA can’t match. Even though Luka, LeBron, and Reaves terrify me in this matchup, I think this game will come down to rebounding and defending the paint, two places I can semi confidently say Dallas should win tonight. The Mavericks are my team tonight.
Money line: LAL (-170) / DAL (+142)
Total Points: 229
Spread: -3.5 LAL (-108) / +3.5 DAL (-112)
With a combination of homecourt advantage, post defense, and size, the Mavericks have some nice advantages coming into this game. Of course, the scoring on LA will be brutal, but I think the Mavericks have some guys who can step up tonight and narrow the scoring gap. If we see Klay, Washington, Dinwiddie, and any of these role players start getting hot, the Mavericks should be able to take this one at home.
This game has all the hallmarks of being a high-scoring affair. As long as neither team shoots abysmally from the floor, this game should drift into the 120 range for at least one of these teams. We saw LA have multiple games in the 120s over their last ten, and the same goes for Dallas. There is a chance this game looks more like a playoff matchup where defense takes over, but I still believe in the offense on both sides of the ball tonight.
Today, I feel the least confident about this spread. I recommend passing on the spread line tonight, particularly if you’re considering Dallas; it's better to just take the money line with some favorable odds. Alternatively, +3.5 for Dallas isn’t terrible, but there's not enough value left to justify taking it today.
This could be a challenging game for Luka. He's a fairly emotional guy and returning to Dallas could be challenging. With the points total so high, hedging against a big night feels like the right move. This is Luka we're talking about, though, one of the best scorer of his generation, but I think weight of the night will keep him below this mark.
We’ve seen AD struggle to hit double digits on the boards since returning from injury. He had one game against Atlanta with 15, and other than that, it’s been sub-10 for the most part. However, with the play-in race still crucial for the Mavericks, and the significance of this game altogether, the Mavs may give AD extra time on the court, but still, the 11 rebound mark is a high bar, especially considering he'll be sharing the court with Lively again.
LeBron hasn’t been known for his volume of blocks, but more for his highlight reel blocks he’s capable of. Averaging only 0.6 blocks a game, he’s a bit hit or miss when he gets him, but with tonight being one of the most anticipated games for the Lakers in a while, I expect to see him in full form. When the world is watching, LeBron is often at his best, and with plus money on this line, I like it.
Since stepping into the starting PG role after Kyrie’s season-ending injury, Dinwiddie has shown he can do a serviceable job. Averaging 7.7 assists in March, he had multiple games with 10 or more assists. He’s had over 8 assists in 6 of the last 10 games. Considering the Lakers are a bigger team, but don’t have the best point of attack defense, Dinwiddie has a solid chance of hitting the 8+ assist mark.