The Bucks host the Timberwolves tonight as they square off for the final time this season. This game holds massive implications for the Timberwolves, as they currently sit in 7th in the West, but are only a half game behind Denver in 4th. With a homecourt spot still up for grabs tonight, we’ll likely see the Wolves going all out.
Pat Connaughton Questionable
Giannis Antetokounmpo Probable
Damian Lillard Out
Jericho Sims Out
Terrence Shannon Jr Questionable
This game is much more important to Minnesota than to Milwaukee. The Bucks are sitting pretty firm at 5th in the East, with a game and a half lead over the Pistons. Regardless, they haven’t clinched their slot, but they're still sitting pretty with only a handful of games remaining.
With Minnesota having a chance at a home court spot, this game will be fascinating. We’ve seen the Wolves go on a tear lately, winning five straight to close out the season. Edwards has been an unstoppable force on both ends of the floor as this team rounds into shape just in time for the playoffs. The Wolves will have the edge against the Bucks tonight.
With no Lillard tonight, the Bucks have only one real option on offense: Giannis. He’s been devastating lately with multiple back-to-back 30-point games. He is making a massive effort to keep this team alive as they limp toward the playoffs. The supporting cast in Milwaukee has stepped up too, with Gary Trent putting on a big game against the Pelicans the other night, giving the Bucks their fourth win in a row. Now back at home, where they’ve been solid this year, they’ll need to figure out how to handle the Wolves.
To have a shot in this game, the Bucks will need to be the more physical team. They’ll need Giannis bumping down low and attacking the rim. With no Dame, they’ll also need some of their role players to keep Minnesota honest and knock down some threes. Even so, the Wolves are well-structured to take on a team like Milwaukee.
The size of the Wolves with Gobert, Randle, and Reid will pose a challenge for Giannis. If they can fade off him and build a wall down low, he is likely to struggle. Of course, Giannis has excelled at getting to the free-throw line; he is currently leading the league in attempts, but he will need to convert those, which has not been his strong suit. This game will hinge on two factors for Milwaukee: is Giannis scoring points at the line, and can Kuzma, Green, Trent, or Prince get hot to alleviate the scoring burden on Giannis? However, even if everything goes well, I still think Minnesota has a strong chance of winning.
The Bucks don’t have anyone to match up against Edwards. It will likely be Trent, who has been effective as a point-of-attack defender, but Ant is a different challenge. His ability to attack the rim, finish through contact, and shoot from range will put tremendous pressure on the Milwaukee defense. With several other strong scoring options, especially coming off the bench, Milwaukee lacks the personnel to defend against them. The role players surrounding Edwards still need to make their shots, but they have been.
So, considering Minnesota’s advantages on the bench, on the perimeter, and their size to toss at Giannis, they’re a great pick tonight. With more on the line for Minnesota as well, this team should be hungry for the win, while Milwaukee might be looking to avoid a rock fight and keep miles off Giannis before the playoffs. Either way, though, this is going to be a fun game.
Money line: MIN (-218) / MIL (+180)
Total Points: 223
Spread: -5.5 MIN (-112) / +5.5 MIL (-108)
I like this matchup for Minnesota. They’re well-built and have been trending in the right direction. With so much on the line, this game should bring out the best in them, and behind Edwards, they’re intimidating. Giannis will be a challenge to slow down, considering his recent run, but Gobert should at least reduce his production a bit tonight. Unless Giannis goes off, or one of the Bucks' role players heats up from three, Minnesota should win this game comfortably.
Even though these teams have some solid defenders, they can both run up the score. We’ve seen the Bucks go over 223 points in all but one of their games on this win streak. The only one they didn’t go over on was against the Pelicans when Giannis was out. For the Wolves, they’ve been hold teams back with their defense, but they’ve managed to get to the 120+ mark a few times, which still makes this line very achievable.
Even though I don’t see Milwaukee winning, I think they’ll keep it close at home. They have Giannis, and all they’ll need is a role player scoring over 20 points tonight to keep it close. The 5.5 spread seems about right for these teams, but getting the +5.5 on Milwaukee feels like a solid bet.
We’ve seen Trent increase his offensive workload with Lillard still sidelined. He scored 29 points in their last game and has consistently recorded over 10 points. In March, he averaged 13.8 points, so setting the line at only 9.5 feels a bit low for someone who can shoot from deep and will be on the court quite a bit.
DiVincenzo has been solid this year from behind the arc. He’s averaging just under 40% from three this year, and was hitting at 45% in March. He was making 3.3 threes a game in March as well, on 7 attempts. If DiVincenzo gets at least 6 shots up from three, he’ll have a great chance of hitting three. This line should be about 50/50, so the plus odds make it an interesting take.
Even though Edwards has been grabbing a fair number of rebounds, tonight we may see his numbers slip. With no Dame on Milwaukee, we’ll likely see a lot of Giannis driving into the paint. This should result in fewer long rebounds and keep Edwards on the perimeter more to guard the Bucks' shooters. Also with the rate Giannis goes to the line, we won't see Edwards lining up for rebounds on the FT-line, which will be another factor. Considering he averaged only 4.5 rebounds per game in March, this under prop is a bit risky, but at +114, it’s not bad.
Randle hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard lately. He’s had a couple of lackluster games, and going against Giannis tonight is not going to help. Averaging only 18 points in March, only scoring 15 against Philly, and 11 against Brooklyn in their last two games, the under is looking great tonight!