Unexpectedly, this will not be the final matchup between Orlando and Atlanta this year. After their game in Orlando tonight, they will return to Atlanta on Sunday for a rematch. Even after that, they are likely to meet again in the seven-eight play-in game. So get ready, because the Hawks-Magic series is just getting started as the NBA regular season comes to a close.
Jalen Suggs Out
Moritz Wagner Out
Jacob Toppin Out
Trae Young Probable
Larry Nance Jr Out
Clint Capela Out
Jalen Johnson Out
Well, even though both of these teams only have four games left on the schedule, this series still has three games in it. These games are important too with their positioning in the play-in at stake. Even though both will likely make the play-in as either the seventh or eighth spot, the Bulls are only one game behind Atlanta for eighth, so these final games are crucial for their playoff hopes.
With the series between these teams split, it should be close matchup with the Magic trending up while the Hawks have been slipping. Tonight won’t be any easier for Atlanta either.
The Hawks have had a tough time. They’ve struggled to finish the season as the fatigue starts to catch up with this young squad. However, that hasn’t slowed down their scoring, as this entire team can catch fire on any given night. This could be their greatest advantage against Orlando tonight, given their scoring issues throughout the season. If the Hawks explode for another one of their 140-point nights like they did against Utah and Milwaukee, there is no way the Magic can keep up; but that won’t be easy against this strong Orlando defense.
The Magic have prioritized defense all year. The entire team is built around long, switchable defenders, which has made them an imposing presence. However, in that process, someone forgot to inform Orlando’s front office that they still need to score, which has become the glaring issue surrounding this team. Without any reliable scorers or deep threats, Orlando has been forced to rely on Paolo and Franz for all their scoring. The pair has stepped up for the most part, but two players can only do so much. So, they’ll need to secure a win through defense tonight against an explosive Atlanta roster.
This game will likely depend on Atlanta’s scoring. If Trae is making three-pointers, or frankly anyone from 1-5 can shoot on this team, Orlando will struggle. Given Orlando's size inside, shots at the rim may be hard to come by, so expect plenty of drive-and-kick offense from Atlanta. Based on what we’ve seen from Atlanta lately, Orlando seems like the safer bet. The Hawks have struggled to maintain consistent, high-level scoring. Even though Risacher, Trae, Okongwu, LeVert, or Daniels are all capable of going off, we haven’t seen it come together recently. With such variation in their shooting game to game, the consistent defense of the Magic will likely win tonight.
Money line: ATL (+145) / ORL (-175)
Total Points: 225.5
Spread: +4 ATL (-108) / -4 ORL (-112)
Orlando is the safe pick tonight. They have the defense to disrupt Atlanta’s interior offense and force them into tons of jump shots. If those shots are falling, Orlando will be in serious trouble; however, considering how inconsistent Atlanta is from beyond the arc, Orlando should be fine. Expect to see Paolo excel tonight as well; the matchup down low is excellent for him, and he’ll likely handle a large portion of the scoring for Orlando.
Betting the under on Orlando games has become a habit. In the two matchups prior to this game, the score exceeded 226 only once, and that was by a single point. Unless a few players from Atlanta really heat up or both Paolo and Wagner find their rhythm, this under seems secure tonight.
This spread is just too close to take Atlanta on. They’ve been up and down for the past couple of weeks, and with what we’ve seen out of Orlando, they’re the better team. I don’t love the number, but the Magic have won by a margin of at least 5 or more in their last nine wins. So take this line if you’re looking for a little extra juice compared to the money line.
Paolo remains the primary driver of this offense. Averaging 29.8 points per game in March, he has been dominant in scoring in the post, getting tons of shots at the rim and attempts at the free-throw line. Tonight should be no different against Atlanta. In both of their previous games, Paolo has excelled in scoring, with 36 and 31 points, making the over tonight look extremely enticing.
LeVert has been a strong addition to this Atlanta bench. He’s taken on the role of bench sparkplug scorer. This line feels a couple of points low for LeVert, considering his performance over the last couple of months. He hasn’t averaged less than 12 points during his entire time in Atlanta, featuring multiple outings over 20 points. With 10 of his last 15 games exceeding 12 points, this over looks excellent.
Trae has performed excellently for us this year by betting on his assist totals. He’s been a monster at passing the ball, leading him to average 11.6 assists per game. He’s recorded over 10 assists in 13 of his last 17 games, with several nights exceeding 15 assists. Even though Orlando does have the size and defense to throw at Trae, he should still be able to find his man and rack up assists.
We’ve seen Okongwu really step into the starting center role well this season. However, facing Orlando will be a challenge for him. The size and strength of Orlando's players will make it difficult to secure rebounds. Considering Okongwu only managed 7 rebounds per game in both of the games he’s played against Orlando, the under becomes much more tempting with the line set at 10.5.