Denver is on the road tonight after a surprising loss at home to the Spurs on Wednesday. Of course, most of the team was out due to injuries, but that won’t be the case in Golden State tonight. This is shaping up to be the best game of the night. With the Warriors making a late-season run for a home-court playoff spot, this game could be massive for both Denver and Golden State’s playoff prospects!
Gary Payton II Out
Peyton Watson Questionable
Julian Strawther Questionable
Jamal Murray Questionable
Aaron Gordon Probable
Christian Braun Probable
Nikola Jokic Probable
This game has some of the highest stakes of the night. With Golden State only a game behind the Lakers in the playoff standings, this matchup could be critical for Golden State's playoff hopes. After a big win in LA yesterday, the Warriors did a quick turnaround to host the Nuggets tonight, which could be a key factor in tonight's matchup.
Denver will definitely have the rest advantage. They didn’t play any of their key starters against the Spurs on Tuesday, which cost them the game, but they’ll be well-rested tonight. It looks like we’ll at least have Gordon, Jokic, and Braum tonight- three players who have been a challenge for the Warriors in the past. We saw both Gordon and Jokic score over 30 points against Golden State, giving the Nuggets a 2-0 lead in the season series.
For the Warriors, they managed to steal a win in Crypto, but this late in the season with no rest will be a challenge for this older team, especially against Denver, which has size that no one on the Warriors can match. This game will entirely depend on Golden State's shooting tonight.
We’ve seen Curry excel recently from three-point range. He nailed 12 against the Grizzlies while pursuing the all-time record again. However, apart from that game, Curry has been somewhat hit or miss lately, especially against Denver. In the two games they’ve played this year, Curry is shooting under 30% from beyond the arc. Whether those are just two random outlier games or if the Denver defense is particularly challenging for him, the Warriors will urgently need Curry to perform well tonight. However, that might be a tall order with fatigued legs this late in the season.
For the Warriors to have a chance tonight, they’ll likely need to see some big performances from their bench. Jonathan Kuminga will be the key. He’s had some impressive games lately, and if he’s able to get downhill on Denver, he might be the best offensive weapon against them other than Curry.
Ultimately, Denver is a tough matchup for the Warriors. The size and playing style of Jokic make it difficult for them to contain him. Coupled with Gordon's ability to drive into the paint and attack the rim, it may be too much for Golden State to handle. Denver should win this game and take firm control of the 3rd spot in the West tonight.
Money line: DEN (-102) / GSW (-118)
Total Points: 235.5
Spread: -1 DEN (-110) / +1 CHI (-110)
The Nuggets should sweep the season series against the Warriors tonight. They have both the matchup and rest advantage. Golden State does have home court; however, it probably won’t be enough to fend off Jokic. With Green playing so many minutes at center, Jokic will little be too much for this smaller group to stop inside. Expect Denver to win this one in a close game.
Looking back at the two other games these teams have played, neither went over this total. Considering how late we are in the season and the solid defense on both sides, this game should comfortably fall below 235.5
I wouldn’t bother with the spread at 1 point, just stick with the money line. If you are going to pick one -1 on Denver should be fine.
With Jokic getting some rest before this game, I have high hopes for him against this much smaller Warriors group. He’s dominated them earlier this year, dropping 38 points in his last matchup against Golden State. With the line set at a healthy 29.5, the over feels great tonight for Jokic.
Gordon has really stepped up his shooting over the last few weeks. He scored 30 points in the double overtime game against Minnesota the other night. Overall, Gordon has shot over 50% from three-point range for the entire month of March, including another 4-for-8 shooting night against the T-Wolves. Considering Gordon is averaging 26.5 points against Golden State over their two games played, it gives me a ton of confidence in the over again.
While we saw Curry chasing the record for most made threes in a game recently, betting on the under for 4.5 made threes seems like a smart choice. He hasn’t had his best shooting performance against Denver in their two previous matchups, going 4-14 and 4-15. Although he's had plenty of attempts, after a grueling back-to-back in LA last night where he played 34 minutes, I'm thinking the 37-year-old might be feeling a bit worn out tonight.
This underline on Draymond's rebounds might actually be my favorite line. He has been a strong rebounder for the Warriors, but it’s certainly all about team rebounding for them, which has resulted in Draymond getting under 7 boards tons of times. He went under 7 boards in over half of his games in March, and in his last matchup against Denver, he only managed to grab 6. I believe Green will be too focused on defense tonight, trying to keep Jokic under control, to expend too much energy battling for boards.