The Wolves are in Indiana on a one-game road trip. Even though this is an East versus West matchup, these teams are familiar with each other, playing only a week ago in Minnesota. The Pacer took that game in epic fashion in OT on a buzz-beater, but this is Minnesota’s chance to get revenge! Expect both sides to be locked in as we meander towards the end of the regular season.
Anthony Edwards Questionable
Benedict Mathurin Questionable
This is the rematch we’ve been looking forward to all week. After an intense battle ending with the heroics of Obi Toppin, these teams get a chance for a redo. With the stage set, these teams are playing for more than just pride tonight. They’re both locked in a tight battle for playoff seating where only a few wins could wildly swing where they finish. The Pacers are only a game ahead of the Bucks for the 4th seed in the East. At the same time, the Timberwolves are clawing their way up to avoid the play-in game. This game is a must-win for both sides.
The biggest unknown tonight is Anthony Edwards' health. Listed as questionable, he can change the overall look of this game. Even without Edwards, this group has looked great coming into the homestretch of the season. The bench has been stronger, with DiVincenzo looking amazing and providing a bulk of the bench scoring alongside Naz Reid. Even with the decline of Mike Conley, he’s been effective table setting in a more limited capacity. However, the real reason this group has found so much success lately has been defense. Their size and strength across every position make them a tough hurdle for most teams. Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have both been solid point-of-attack defenders, while Gobert continues to lock down the post. Anthony Edwards has been the X-factor on defense this year. When he’s locked in, this group is nearly unstoppable.
It will be a tall task for the Pacers to get past the Timberwolves twice in a week. However, they’ve been on a late-season run, winning multiple razor-close games, with two wins in OT. This group has transformed on the fly this year. With Haliburton’s offensive efficiency drying up, they’ve shifted away from him. Siakam has been their most reliable offensive player, with several others stepping up behind him. Mathurin, Toppin, Turner, and even Nesmith have sometimes filled the Haliburton scoring hole, which has made Indiana an enigma to solve. Indiana can pick teams apart offensively with explosive options all over the court. We’ll likely see Minnesota have to adjust all game as they rotate through the hottest hand tonight.
Overall, this matchup will be close. If Edwards is out tonight, the Pacers will be the better pick, but even if Edwards is in the Timberwolves feel secure. Their scoring ability has been elite, with their bench featuring some of the best downhill athletes around. The combination of Reid and DiVincenzo coming off the bench will be punishing. However, this game will likely hinge on three-point shooting. With Minnesota shooting 31% last game and Indiana shooting 46%, if that gap narrows, this game could be extremely tight again.
Money line: MIN (+110) / IND (-130)
Total Points: 229
Spread: +2.5 MIN (-112) / -2.5 IND (-108)
The Timberwolves had the last game before a downright incredible play out of Toppin last week. Considering they shot 30% from three while the Pacers shot well over league averages could give the Timberwolves a solid advantage tonight. With Edwards questionable, this line is slightly risky to take, but if he’s in, expect the Timberwolves to be highly competitive tonight.
We’re probably in for another shooting battle tonight. We saw the overtime score of the last game fly over 260 combined points. If we get some average scoring nights out of both teams, the 230 line seems doable. Considering that the Wolves routinely have scores at or above the 130-point mark, expect them to carry the scoring load.
I just like getting plus odds on Minnesota. They’ve been so good, especially on the road. They’re one of the few teams this year with an away record well above 500 at 20-15. Travel hasn’t affected them, and with a better shooting night, there is a good chance they can avenge their last game against the Pacers.
Pascal Siakam has been awesome lately. Scoring over 22 points in eight of the Pacers’ last ten games. He’s been efficient, too, getting most of his work done on the inside. Of course, going up against Jaden McDaniels with Gobert in the paint won’t make it easy, but Pascal can handle it. If he can get to the line a few times tonight, expect him to hit this line easily!
Toppin has always been a boom-or-bust scorer. As a top-scoring choice off the bench, tonight sets him up well. With the line at just 7.5 points, he could reach that in a quarter if he gets into a rhythm. In March, he has scored below 8 points only four times in 12 games. In his last game against Minnesota earlier this month, he scored 34 points; this is an easy pick.
This line might have the juice you’d expect on a player prop, but this one is too good to pass up. DiVincenzo has found his stride off the bench late in the season for Minnesota. In March he’s been hitting 3.6 threes a game at a 46.5% rate. He’s turned into one of the Timberwolves most efficient scoring options this year. Especially with Edwards questionable today, he’ll likely get a ton of run if he’s out, but even if Edwards is in, DiVincenzo is an excellent bet to hit 3+ threes.
Even though Reid is a solid rebounder, his role has shifted on this team. He’s been utilized much more as a scoring option, which has him running more in transition. Considering how effective Edward and Randle are at rebounding the ball alongside Gobert, it can leave Naz behind in the rebounding category. In the last matchup between these teams, we only saw Naz grab 4 boards.