The Bucks and the Lakers have a rematch less than a week after their last matchup. Now in LA, the Lakers will have to overcome a Bucks team that dominated them by over 20. Still without LeBron, Luka and Reaves will have to battle against a dominant Milwaukee team fighting for a homecourt playoff seed.
Bucks Injuries:
Gary Trent Jr Probable
Damian Lillard Probable
Giannis Antetokounmpo Probable
Jericho Sims Out
Lakers Injuries:
Rui Hachimura Out
LeBron James Out
Maxi Kleber Out
We’ve seen this matchup recently. The Bucks dominated the Lakers in their last matchup in Milwaukee last week. Even with Luka having 45 points, the game ended in a 20-plus-point blowout.
The Lakers will likely struggle again today. They probably won’t have to deal with the Bucks shooting 42% collectively from three, but they’ll have to contain Giannis. With no LeBron tonight, even with the home-court advantage, the Lakers will need everything to go right.
For the Lakers to have a chance, they’ll need to find additional scoring. With Reaves as the number two, Luka can carry most of the load, but they need a third. They need someone else to punish the Bucks and keep this game close. The Lakers don’t have much hope to win this one defensively, even with Finney-Smith and Vanderbilt out there. No, this game is going to all offense.
The Bucks only need to keep the pressure on the Lakers tonight. They did an excellent job of getting to the rim and attacking the Laker's weak interior. If Giannis is able to penetrate the defense and hit the kickout pass like last game, the Bucks should see wide-open shots all night.
This is the Bucks game to lose, going against the diminished Lakers. If they can keep the intensity high and keep the crowd out of the game, they’ll be in an excellent position to win. The Bucks are an easy bet tonight.
Money line: MIL (-142) / LAL (+120)
Total Points: 226
Spread: -3 MIL (-112) / +3 LAL (-108)
The Lakers are still without LeBron, so this will be a tough game for them to win. Even with Luka firing on all cylinders, the team lacks the defense, scoring, and playmaking LeBron brings to games like these. Especially with the Bucks looking healthy again; the combo of Giannis and Lillard will be too much for Luka to overcome. The Bucks are a solid pick tonight.
Even though they did get over this total last time, it did require Luka to drop 45, Reaves 28, and four players on Milwaukee scoring over 20 points. Tack on nearly 50 free throws and shooting percentages from three near 40%, both teams were at their peak of scoring. Even with this high efficiency on both sides, they still only managed to get past this line by 6 points. Expecting things to regress toward the mean points to this game landing under the 226 mark.
Milwaukee dominated the Lakers in their last matchup. A three-point spread looks excellent, considering the game ended in a 23-point blowout only a week ago. Even with the Lakers having a home-court advantage, the outcome of this game should be similar.
Giannis hasn’t been putting up massive games lately. He’s been deferring much more, with Dame and the bench taking a more prominent scoring role. With no LeBron or Rui, Giannis will likely be going against Vanderbilt, which should be a physical matchup. So late in the season, Giannis will likely move the ball to the perimeter, where the team will have better matchups, and he can avoid banging inside as much.
Prince hasn’t been the same scorer he was earlier in the year. He’s been scoring under 9 points routinely as the shots have shifted to hotter hands. With less of a role, Prince won’t have the shot volume to hit 9 points unless he’s hitting his threes at a high efficiency.
Luka has been carrying this team through LeBron’s absence. Earning a triple-double in the last game against the Bucks, a double-double seems likely. Even though the triple-double odds were tempting, this line looks much more secure for Luka.
When Reaves and Luka share the court, Reaves focuses on scoring. He’s a solid playmaker, but compared to Luka, he’s much more a receiver than a quarterback. Don’t expect Reaves to be lighting up his teammates with passes tonight, especially with no LeBron.