The Grizzlies are in Portland for the final matchup between these two teams. So far, the series has not been competitive. Memphis has squashed Portland twice, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen these teams play, and a few things have changed. This should be a fun matchup between two teams with size and athleticism.
Lamar Stevens Out
Zyon Pullin Out
Ja Morant Out
Santi Aldama Questionable
Scotty Pippen Jr Questionable
Robert Williams III Out
Jabari Walker Out
Toumani Camara Questionable
Jerami Grant Doubtful
Deandre Ayton Out
Portland and Memphis haven’t played since November when the Grizzlies gave Portland two of their worst losses of the year. The Grizzlies' size and defensive presence have suffocated Portland in the past, but this is a different team from the one in November. We’ve seen impressive growth from this predominantly young roster. However, Memphis is no pushover, and they’ll still be an extremely challenging matchup for Portland.
The Grizzlies' season has been a rollercoaster. They’ve had some massive highs and some plunging lows. Injuries continue to disrupt the flow of this team. So many little nagging injuries have only allowed us a few glimpses of what this team looks like when it is completely healthy. With Ja Morant officially out for the game tonight, we’ll see a different side of this group.
It’s a shame that Ja is out again, considering how well he’s been playing. He’s looked like the old Ja before all the drama and suspensions. Averaging 31 points a game in March, losing him tonight is a big hit to a team fighting for homecourt advantage in the playoffs.
Portland won't be an easy team to play at home tonight. We’ve seen this group lock in as these young guys continue growing together. Deni Avdija has been Portland’s standout player lately. He’s been a warpath, aggressively attacking the basket, getting to the line, and playing terrific team defense. Avdija has elevated his game faster than expected, and Portland has needed it. With tons of injuries, most of Portland’s veterans are out tonight and will likely be out for the remainder of the season. That's only left an opening for the rest of this young group to step up.
Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan have all had impressive nights recently. With some extra run, and responsibility, we've seen this young core pop. Even Anfernee Simons has found his shot again late this season. He’s been a key piece in stabilizing this young Portland offense. We’ve seen him much more willing to attack the rim, which has opened the floor up immensely for Portland.
Overall, this matchup will depend on Portland's offensive efficiency. Although they have struggled against Memphis in the past, they are a better team now. However, Memphis is still the favorite in this game for a reason. They have been the much stronger defensive team, and with JJJ, Portland may struggle to find a lane to the basket tonight. If Memphis can limit Portland’s transition offense and force them into loads of jump shots, they’ll have an excellent chance to take this game. Memphis should be able to take care of business tonight.
Money line: MEM (-185) / POR (+154)
Total Points: 236.5
Spread: -4.5 MEM (-112) / +4.5 POR (-108)
Memphis has been the better team all year. With their track record against Portland, they should be able to take control of this game. However, losing Morant for this matchup isn’t ideal. If the shooters on Memphis struggle to convert, they may leave a hole open for Portland to keep this game close. Looking at some of the most recent games, though, Bane, Kennard, and JJJ should be able to fill the scoring hole just fine tonight.
We’ve seen some massive scoring nights out of Memphis, but Portland could be the weak link tonight. In their last two games against Memphis, they haven’t scored over 100 points. Given Portland’s streaky offense, the under looks like the safer bet.
Memphis has struggled to dominate teams lately. Some of their latest wins have come to the wire, only separated by a handful of points. Historically, Memphis has buried Portland, but the game could stay close with no Ja tonight. Portland has upped their scoring ability since their last matchup. Even though the spread should be larger than 4.5, the Portland lines look solid tonight.
Simons has been much more consistent offensively. He averaged 25.4 points per game in March, with multiple games over 30 points. However, Memphis has been a challenging matchup for him this season. Simons has only scored 9 points against Memphis in 49 minutes of play. This group seems to stifle Simons' productivity.
This line seems a little crazy to me. We just saw Bane go seven for seven shooting threes on Monday. He’s averaging 2.8 made threes this month, shooting 47% from three. With Ja Morant out, he’ll likely see even more opportunities. Plus, Toumani Camara may be out again, which would sideline Portland’s best point-of-attack defender. Everything is lined up for Bane to hit 3+ threes tonight; he just needs to make the shots.
We will continue to ride Clingan’s hot hand with his rebounding totals. As the starter, he’s consistently grabbing 10+ rebounds a game. He’s only struggled to reach this number when he gets into foul trouble, but with no Ja tonight, that will alleviate a lot of the foul pressure. This should be a good rebounding night for Clingan.
Jackson Jr has been a defensive beast again this year. Next to Zach Edey, this Grizzlies team has incredible size, and rim protection. Jackson has managed to get at least 2 blocks consistently all year. Averaging 1.6 blocks a game on the season, he should be in a great position to pick some up against a young Portland team that loves to drive.