The Clippers end their three-game road trip in Atlanta tonight. These teams have been trending up over the last couple of weeks. With Atlanta sitting at 7th in the East and the Clippers at 8th in the West, this should be evenly matched game.
Clint Capela Questionable
Trae Young Probable
Larry Nance Out
Jalen Johnson Out for the Season
Ben Simmons Questionable
Norman Powell Out
Both of these teams are coming in 4 and 1 over their last 5 games. Finding traction as we begin the final push to the playoffs. However, they'll likely have to play their way into the playoffs through the play-in game. Making this game even more critical.
The Hawks are sitting with homecourt advantage for the play-in game, but the Clippers aren’t. They’ve been pushing hard lately to move up into the 7th spot. Sitting a game and a half behind the Timberwolves, the Clippers are in striking range to move to 7th.
The Clippers have come together late in this season. James Harden has been in prime form, as he’s carried the team while Kawhi and Powell deal with injuries. He’s had some help, though, as Bogdanovic looks like a great acquisition from Atlanta. He had 30 points in their win over Miami on Wednesday. Zubac has also been an invaluable asset to the team, stepping in as a second or third scoring option while doing all of the team's rebounding. With Kawhi playing tonight, this will be a challenging team for Atlanta.
Atlanta has seen their fair number of challenges this year and come out head. This group has been dangerous despite losing Johnson for the season, then trading Bogdanovic and Hunter. A big part of that has been due to Trae Young. Despite having one of the worst shooting years of his career, Trae has been putting in maximum effort to keep this team going. Averaging 26 points a game in March with 12.8, he’s almost single-handedly keeping this offense together. Caris LeVert and Onyeka Okongwu have also stepped up their roles on the team, giving this group multiple offensive weapons.
One of the key matchups of the night will Dyson Daniels on James Harden, though. Daniels has been a revelation on Atlanta defensively as a point-of-attack defender. His effect on ball handlers is stunning, with his ability to lock up guys on the perimeter and limit passing lanes. Harden is still Harden, though, so this won’t be the first time he’s seen an elite defender on him.
This matchup will likely come down to shooting and free throws. Trae Young has been living at the free-throw line lately, which has been massive for Atlanta’s scoring. If Trae can continue pushing his way inside, finding contact, and getting to the line, Atlanta will have a great chance to win this game. However, the Clippers are set up well defensively to avoid this, and if they can force Trae to shoot while avoiding fouls, Atlanta will struggle. This might all come down to how the refs blow the whistle tonight, but considering what we’ve seen over the last few Atlanta home games, I’d expect Trae to get the calls he needs.
Money line: LAC (-198) / ATL (+164)
Total Points: 233.5
Spread: -4.5 LAC (-108) / +4.5 ATL (-112)
Homecourt will be massive tonight for Atlanta. If they can get the friendly whistle and let Trae feast at the free-throw line again, they’ll be in a great position. Even with Kawhi back for this game, it’s hard to know what you’ll get from the Clippers. The Clippers have been 50/50 in the last 10 games Kawki has played in with, all of those losses happening on the road. Atlanta has a great chance to take this game.
We’ve seen some high-scoring games out of both of these teams lately. With Leonard back for this game and what Trae has been doing, there is a good chance we will see both scores skyrocket. Considering nine of Atlanta’s last ten games have been above or at 233, this looks like a strong line to take the over on.
At 4.5 points, the spread is in a solid spot for Atlanta. They’ve been keeping it close and winning games, so this spread is solid even if they fall short tonight. I’d still consider the money line over the spread, though, if you’re leaning toward Atlanta.
Trae’s scoring has skyrocketed as he’s made a massive push to get to the line more. Despite his lacking three-point shooting, he’s been making an enormous impact by attacking defenses, finding contact, and making up the difference at the line. If he can continue getting to the free throw line for at least 8 attempts, he’ll have a terrific chance of getting to 26. With this being a home game, he’ll also have a great shot at getting some favorable calls.
LeVert has been an excellent bet lately. He thrives in his new role and elevates the Hawks' bench's scoring ability. He’s getting a solid stretch of playing time, too, averaging nearly 30 minutes. With plenty of time and opportunity, he’s been averaging nearly 20 points a game in March. This 13.5 line is well below what he’s capable of.
Zubac is a rebounding monster. The last time these teams played each other, he had 18 rebounds. Taking the alt line on this rebounding total is a little risky at 14, but he’s been hitting this number and well above it all year. Especially if Capela is out tonight, Zubac should clean up all night on the boards.
Harden has had over 10 assists in his last three games. Now, getting Kawhi back from rest, he’ll have another great scorer to move the ball to. Harden had 15 assists when they last played Atlanta, making this line extremely tempting.