The Miami Heat are in LA to take on a wounded Clippers team. Without Powell or Leonard, it’s up to Harden to run the show tonight. The Heat are coming into this game on a four-game losing streak as they struggle to stay afloat. This game should be an interesting to see who can stop their slide first.
Drew Eubanks Questionable
Ben Simmons Out
Norman Powell Out
Kawhi Leonard Out
Alec Burks Questionable
Terry Rozier Probable
Nikola Jovic Out
The Clippers have been solid all year but have never been convincingly dangerous. Constant injuries and an aging roster have them firmly in the middle of the playoffs. With a 35-30 record on the season and a 15-21 record against teams over 500, they’ve been nothing special. They beat the teams they should and lose to teams above them.
The biggest issue with this team has been scoring. You can out-score the Clippers easily if you pick up the pace and move well in transition. Especially when Powell and Leonard are out, when it’s just Harden out there with the role players, things tend to get slow. It can work for them sometimes. The slow pace can take teams out of rhythm and make it hard to score against the Clipper's solid defense. This team was built with defense in mind, and they typically thrive against less experienced teams.
The Heat, on the other hand, have just had a weird season. The whole Jimmy Butler drama did them no favor, while some of their younger players didn’t improve. The bench has been a big issue for this team; it’s been thin all year with injuries and players playing under expectations. Adding in Wiggins has given them a nice, versatile player, but he’s no Butler. The only positive thing we’ve seen from this team post-All-Star break has been Bam. He’s finally found his scoring touch again, as he’s led the team in scoring for the last six games. He’ll be the biggest X-factor for Maimi tonight against the Clippers.
These two teams match up with each other well. Miami has a slight advantage in scoring with Herro, Bam, and Wiggins, but the Clippers should be okay behind Harden and Bogdanovic. Bam will be an issue down low for the Clippers with Simmons and Leonard both out. He’ll likely have the weakest defensive matchup on him going against either Derrick Jones Jr or Nicolas Batum. Whoever it is, Bam is likely in for another scoring night in LA.
Overall, the Heat are the easy favorite here.
Money line: LAC (+120) / MIA (-142)
Total Points: 205.5
Spread: +2.5 LAC (-110) / -2.5 MIA (-110)
The Heat are coming into this one healthier and with a rest advantage. The Clippers have home court, but with Kawhi and Powell out, they will struggle to get points on the board. Even though Miami has been going through a rough patch, they can still beat this wounded Clippers group to end a four-game losing streak.
This line is incredibly low compared to some of the other games, which is an outlier. The Clippers are missing two of their best scoring options, but they can still probably reach 100. With how Harden and Bam have been scoring lately, this line should be extremely achievable.
Again, Miami looks like the more complete team coming into this matchup. Even considering their struggles, they should be able to outscore the Clippers. The 2.5 points on this line are reasonable, considering how close most of Miami’s last games have been. This game will likely be tight with their last 4 losses separated by 5 points or fewer.
James Harden has been putting in work as a playmaker. He had 17 assists last night and 11 the night before. Averaging over 10 a game for March, he’s been an elite passer. The only problem is that Powell and Leonard are out. With the team's first and third leading scorers, Harden may have trouble finding open scorers tonight.
Zubac has consistently stepped his scoring up when called upon. Zubac has become the de facto third scoring option in most games with Powell still down. He may even be the second scoring option with Kawhi down. He should see plenty of solid opportunities at the rim tonight.
Bam will likely be the man tonight for Miami. Scoring over 20 points in five of his last six games, this line feels low. Yes, the Clippers have some good defenders, but DDJ or Batum shouldn't be able to meaningfully stop Bam in the post. Even tossing Zubac at him won't help with Ware on the court too. Bam should hit this line easily.
Wiggins has upped his scoring over the last couple of weeks. He’s nearly averaged 19 points a game since he arrived in Miami. With the Clippers missing a couple of defenders tonight in Powell and Simmons, he could take advantage, especially with the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back.