The Bucks are taking on the Pacers in Indiana for the third game of this series. Coming into this game separated by only a single game in the standings, this is a massively important game. The Pacers have the opportunity to take the 4th seed and steal home-court advantage from Milwaukee. However, they’ve struggled to compete against the deer this year, losing both their previous games to Milwaukee. Will tonight be different?
Chris Livingston Out
Pat Connaughton Questionable
Damian Lillard Probable
Giannnis Antetokounmpo Probable
Tyrese Haliburton Questionable
The Pacers have been all over the boards this year. Stringing together a patchy tapestry of wins, their success hasn’t been considered. They’ve struggled to pull together more than three or four wins in a row. The cause of this has primarily been inconsistency with their offense. Tyrese Haliburton has fallen off hard this year. He’s lost the IT factor that made him an All-NBA player last year. With his offensive contributions fluctuating, the team has struggled to compensate.
Luckily for Indiana, they have a deep team of scorers when healthy, and we’ve seen different players thrive night night. Bennedict Mathurin, Myles Turner, Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith, and Pascal Siakam have all had their nights recently. With so much diversity in their scoring ability, they’re a challenging team to shut down, but they’re still lacking their number one option. When Haliburton is off, this team struggles to find the hot hand.
The Bucks, on the other side, have been solid up until the last couple of games, losing to Cleveland and Orlando. Before that, they had just lost two out of their last ten. They’ve made a steady run post-All-Star break to put themselves in a great position to claim homecourt advantage in the playoffs.
The biggest problem with Milwaukee is their lack of a true third option. Between Lillard and Giannis, they can get the bulk of the scoring done. However, they’re lacking that third option to take them over the top. Kuzma was supposed to slide into that role, which he has on some nights, but he’s not the consistent third scorer they need. A big part of this matchup will come down to who else in Milwaukee is scoring. If it’s only Dame and Giannis again, it’ll be a close game.
This matchup is looking fairly even with Indiana having a home court. The Bucks still have the advantage, though. Giannis will be causing havoc like normally, and unless the Pacers are able to shoot their way into this game, they’ll struggle against this big Milwaukee frontcourt. Especially if Haliburton is out, the Bucks should be able to take the third game in this series.
Money line: MIL (-135) / IND (+114)
Total Points: 234.5
Spread: -2 MIL (-112) / +2 IND (-108)
Even though the Bucks have lost their last two, they’ve been looking better. This group has come together to look dangerous. Considering the Pacers have been up and down all season while losing both their previous games to the Bucks is confidence-inspiring. This will be a close game, but the Bucks have the edge tonight.
This line will basically come down to Lillard this game. The Bucks have been scoring in the upper 110s for a solid stretch, and combined with the scoring ability of Indiana, it’s doable. They’ll need Lillard hitting to have a solid shot at getting to 234.5. Combine that with some bench scoring from the Pacer bench unit, and this over has a solid chance of hitting tonight.
This is a solid spread for MIL; however, with the money line so close in value, it’s probably the better take. The Bucks should be the stronger team tonight, especially if Haliburton isn’t on the court. They’ll easily outscore the Indiana starting unit.
Giannis has been dominant as usual, but he is dealing with another nagging injury that has him on the injury report. The under on 32.5 is looking good. He scored 30 in their last game against Indiana and 37 the game before that while averaging 30.8 in March. This line will be close, but the under feels a tad better.
With Haliburton questionable for the game, Siakam may have to elevate his scoring output. He’s been the de facto leader of the team this year on both ends of the court, and tonight will be no different. With some solid scoring performances in the last two games against the Bucks and averaging 21.8 points in March, the over looks like the move tonight.
Turner has been a little hit-or-miss on the boards, but against the Bucks, he’s done well this year. He’s had over 7 rebounds in both games he’s played against them this year. With how aggressively Giannis takes it in, there will likely be plenty of short rebounding opportunities for Turner as long as he can avoid foul trouble. This line looks solid by itself or tossed into a parlay.
Kuz hasn’t been an all-timer shooting from the perimeter this year. Sitting at 32% while playing for the Bucks, he’s been a low-volume shooter, but with a line of 1.5 tonight, the over has a little pop to it. He’s made 2 threes in five of the last ten games. It’s a coin flip, but with +105, it’s a decent toss-in line.