The Magic will play the Rockets in Houston tonight. Both teams have struggled late in the season and are in the back half of the playoff picture now. This should be a solid matchup between two teams desperately looking to rediscover their early season success.
Jalen Suggs Out for Season
Amen Thompson Out
Fred VanVleet Questionable
Reed Sheppard Out
Orlando has been a peculiar case this year. After starting as one of the hottest teams in the East, they’ve slumped due to a slew of injuries, none more impactful than the loss of Jalen Suggs. He was the glue that held this group together, the third option that made it all work. Now that he’s done for the rest of the season, the outlook for Orlando is bleak.
The story in Houston isn’t too dissimilar: injuries pile up, a key player in VanVleet misses time, and the offense falls away. They’ve been waiting for one of these young guys to take over as a shooter, but no one has. Jalen Green had some moments this year, but he's streaky, just like the rest of his career. Shooting only 35% from the field on 8 attempts a game doesn’t get the job done. No, Houston has relied on the athleticism all year to even the playing field on offense, attacking the offensive glass for second-chance points. However, second chance points might be hard to come, with Orlando similarly matched in the post.
This matchup will be intriguing. We haven’t seen these teams face each other this year, but it should be even, considering how wing and post-heavy they are. The absence of Amen Thompson evens things out even more.
I’m leaning toward Orlando tonight just because of their top-end talent. Paolo and Wagner have been fantastic despite the shortcomings of the team. They’ve both managed to be impactful on both sides of the court despite their shooting struggles continuing. For Houston, they have more depth, but they lack the top-end star power Orlando can toss out tonight. Sengun is the closest comparable player, but Orlando has some solid defensive options to pair against him.
This game will 100% be settled by shooting, though. If guys like Dillon Brooks or Green are hitting, this game will swing Houston; if not, Orlando will probably take it. Orlando looks like the better bet tonight, especially with plus odds!
Money line: ORL (+160) / HOU (-192)
Total Points: 211
Spread: +4.5 ORL (-108) / -4.5 HOU (-112)
Orlando hasn’t been a great team in the second half of the year. They’ve struggled to find any source of consistency on offense. However, they have a shot against Houston. Neither team has shooters, and they’ll both rely on defense and hustle plays to get points on the board. As great as Houston has been this year, I like the combo of Paolo and Wagner more. They’ve both had monster games, and if one of the Magic role-players steps up, they’ll have an excellent shot to win in Houston.
Even with both of these teams being primarily defense drives, 211 looks low for an NBA game. Both of these teams can score and have been putting up point totals much higher than this. The worry is one of these teams can’t hit anything and finishes under 90 points, which has happened with both teams this year. More recently, though, they’ve both had offensive lines that would easily hit this over, so it’s looking like a great bet.
Orlando can’t score, and that has become clear this season. However, Houston hasn’t been without flaws offensively, either. They’ve built their season on hustle and second-chance points. That worked for a while, but as the season has progressed, the lack of a go-to offense has been an issue. This game will likely be close, with Houston having had some narrow margins of victory lately.
You just never know with Brooks. He’s had some iconic nights this year, hitting threes and having random explosive moments. Tonight, he’ll likely get a fair number of shot attempts and three-point opportunities to help work toward 13 points. Considering he’s had over 13 points in all but one of the last six games, this line looks stable.
Paolo is the due-it-all guy for the Magic. He’s been averaging 28 points a game alone in March, so with the line only at 36.5, this feels very doable. If he hits his averages tonight, he’ll easily pass this line.
This is just one of those random lines you see and like. Sengun has been such a dominant rebounder this year that winning the race to 4 seems likely. You never know where the balls going to go, but he'll have great shot at pulling this line off considering how great his hands are.
Carter is a guy who can rack up boards, but it’s been a little hit or miss. The good thing for him is that Houston has not been an efficient shooting team. They take a high volume of shots, which could help Carter hit this line early.