Portland is on its way to take on the Thunder in OKC. This should be an interesting game, with OKC facing a host of injuries all at once and Portland closing out a long road series. It could go either way.
Chet Holmgren Questionable
Isaiah Hartenstein Out
Luguentz Dort Out
Cason Wallace Out
Jalen Williams Out
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Out
Dalano Banton Out
Robert Williams Out
Matisse Thybulle Out
Jerami Grant Questionable
Deni Avdija Questionable
Deandre Ayton Out
It’s a little bizarre that Portland is the underdog in this game. Yes, it is OKC, the best team in the West at home, but they’re injured to hell. They’ll be missing 50 points of scoring between SGA and Williams. Relying on guys like Joe or Wiggins to make up that difference seems like a tough ask.
Portland has been on the road since February 24th. They’ve already had six road games, with this one in OKC as the final in the series. That’s a lot of time away from your bed and in hostile gyms. Luckily, most of Portland is young, so they should be able to bounce back, travel can be hard on anyone.
This should be a solid matchup for Portland. Even if Chet ends up playing, which sounds doubtful, they have the athletes to keep pace with OKC. Scoring will be the big thing for both sides. Portland has been up and down over this road stretch, but if Simons is hitting, they’ll have a great chance to take this one. OKC will need some big effort from their bench players. Wiggins has shown the ability to be a scorer, but going against one of the best point-of-attack defenders in Camara will be different. He’ll likely be the number one target for the Portland defense, which could affect him.
Overall, Portland should win this game, but against OKC, who knows? They have been elite from top to bottom, and their defense has propelled their success. If they can keep the defense intensity up, force Portland into turnovers, and attack in transition, they’ll have a great chance to win this game.
For Portland, they’ll need to hit their threes. Hitting for the perimeter will be critical in outpacing OKC. It’s a hornet's nest when driving on them with the number of active defenders they have. They'll still be a headache even if they miss their best three or four defenders.
Regardless, this is a solid line for Portland. With the plus odds and all of the OKC injuries, this is my favorite money line of the night.
Money line: POR (+124) / OKC (-148)
Total Points: 230.5
Spread: +2.5 POR (-108) / -2.5 OKC (-112)
It’s hard not to take Portland on plus money when most of the OKC lineup will be out for this game. With how the Blazers have looked lately, they should stand up well to OKC. With most of OKC’s scoring sidelined tonight, Portland should be able to outscore them in the starting and bench minutes tonight. The only worry for this line is the fact Portland is closing out a seven-game road series. So, fatigue might be an issue. However, they’re young, and this is OKC, the number one team in the West, they’ll want to snag this game.
With most of OKC’s team out tonight, we should see the scoring dry up. Relying on Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins to replace the scoring output of SGA probably won’t work. Even if they are scoring well, the OKC bench will be so thin that they’re likely to find a drought in scoring at some point tonight. Portland has put up some big numbers lately, but they might have some tired legs at the tail end of a long road trip. The under is looking reasonable tonight.
Portland is the wild card coming into this one. Getting bombed out by Boston was not an ideal situation, but going against a decimated OKC roster should be manageable. For some reason, most of the OKC starting lineup will be benched tonight, so Portland should be able to take this game or at least keep it close.
Camara hasn’t been dominant scoring; it’s his defense that has done the talking. However, tonight, with most of OKC down, Camara could see a slight scoring boost. If he’s able to hit just a couple threes and make it to the line once or twice, 13 points should be manageable.
Wiggins has taken a massive leap in scoring this year, but as the primary option without the gravity of SGA or Williams out there, it's a different story. He’s had some stints as the primary before, but it'll be different against a solid Portland defense. The 21.5-point line feels a little high for Wiggins in this matchup.
Clingan, once again, will be one of the only available centers for Portland. He’s been up and down in this role primarily because of fouls, but if he can stay on the floor, he’s a rebounding monster. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the 10-board number by the third quarter, especially if Chet is out today.
Even with all of the injuries tonight, this combined line is a little too inflated to compensate. Caruso has not been a box score this year, even when playing extended minutes. He’ll likely leave the scoring up to Wiggins and Joe while he continues to focus his effort on defense.