The Kings are heading to the Lone Star State to take on a banged-up Dallas team. Half the team is seemingly on the injury report, so this should be an interesting game. Both teams are locked up in a tight race at the bottom of the Western Conference playoff picture, and this game may have massive consequences for post-season seating.
Domantas Sabonis Out
Caleb Martin Out
PJ Washington Out
Anthony Davis Out
Daniel Gafford Out
Dereck Lively Out
The Mavericks are down right now. They’ve slipped all the way to 10th in the West and are desperate to stop the descent. The Kings are right next to them at 9th, tied in win loss. With the 6-10th spot separated by only a half-game, every game is important now. None of these teams want to fight in the play-in, and with the 6th seed still well within grasp, we should see both teams fighting like hell to win this game.
Dallas has been struggling to keep afloat, though. Every time they patch one hole, another appears, as this roster is rail thin with injuries. Luckily, Kyrie Irving has managed to hold things together as they eke out wins whenever possible. Unfortunately for the Mavs, they’re down badly going into tonight's game. They're still missing all their bigs, and now PJ Washington and Caleb Martin, it’s tough.
On the other hand, the Kings aren’t injury-free either. They’ll be without Sabonis tonight, which will be a big hole in their offense and rebounding. They’re much better off than Dallas, but it should even the playing field a little. Valanciunas has now taken over the center role, and the rest of the stars are playing well. On a three-game win streak, they’re starting to make a push.
This matchup will favor the Kings—their scoring ability through the one through five is elite. Compared to Dallas, they’ll be able to pick and choose their matchups more effectively than Dallas. We’d like to see the ball in Kyrie's hands all night, which could be a problem for the Kings. They don’t have a great point of an attack defender to match up against him, but we’d like to see plenty of doubles. With how banged up that roster is, they'll be looking good if they can get the ball out of Kyrie’s hands.
Overall, the Kings are the correct favorite here, even playing in Dallas. The injuries are just too significant to ignore. Especially for what’s on the line post-season seating-wise, I expect we’ll see the Kings locked in.
Money line: SAC (-130) / DAL (+110)
Total Points: 232
Spread: -2 SAC (-108) / +2 DAL (-112)
Kings have been playing some solid basketball. Even after losing Sabonis, Valanciunas has stepped up to keep the team afloat in the post. Currently on a three-game win streak and taking on an injury-riddled Mavericks roster, they have the talent to win. Unless Kyrie goes off, they should be able to take this one on the road.
With the lack of defense and scoring ability of both these rosters, 232 looks achievable. They hit this number the last time they played before getting to OT. With Kyrie having the green light and all the scoring across the board on Sacramento, they have a great chance to hit this line.
Sacramento should be able to get away from the Mavericks by a couple of points. They have the stronger team, with an overwhelming amount of scoring. Considering that they haven’t won a game by less than 5 over their last ten games, this line has enough room to feel comfortable.
Even adding Zach LaVine, DeRozan has still been getting his numbers. Putting up 42 last time they played the Mavericks in February, the 23-point line should be achievable. Especially playing a banged-up Mavericks team, he should have the shot volume and opportunities to hit this line.
Valanciunas has stepped up his rebounding quite a bit. With Sabonis out for a month, he’s taken the starting role and has been playing well. Pulling down 14 rebounds against Houston on Saturday. However, the 13 rebounding mark is a bit high. He’s only hit that number six times all season.
Marshall may get the call-up to the starting lineup tonight, but 20 combined points and rebounds look high even if he does. His scoring dropped, with his three-pointer dropping to 25% in February. He may make up for it on the glass, but the under still has solid value tonight.
With this team so injured, Kyrie has been the primary scorer. Since he’s taken on such a large workload on offense, we’ve seen his assists numbers drop fairly significantly. He’s had one game post-All-Star breaks, getting 5+ assists. This line looks solid, even with the plus odds attached.